$5 NLHE 6-max: Call turn jam with top pair & nut flush draw?

GreenDaddy1

GreenDaddy1

Rock Star
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 16/13/5

Pacific Poker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 129.2 BB
SB: 98.4 BB
BB: 76.4 BB
UTG: 482 BB
MP: 76 BB
CO: 34 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A Q

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 2 3 Q
UTG bets 4.8 BB, Hero raises to 14.4 BB, UTG calls 9.6 BB

Turn: (36.2 BB, 2 players) J
UTG checks, Hero bets 19.8 BB, UTG raises to 464.6 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 92 BB and is all-in

River: (259.8 BB, 2 players) 3

Hero shows A Q (Two Pair, Queens and Threes)
(Pre 70%, Flop 93%, Turn 25%)
UTG shows J Q (Two Pair, Queens and Jacks)
(Pre 30%, Flop 7%, Turn 75%)
UTG wins 244.6 BB



Just called the button to keep his entire range in, was positionally aware as well as tight from what I could gather.

I'm sure he has something with this check jam on the turn. I tank call. Obviously I have the flush outs, but any Q or A might get me there also, I knew I had at least 20% equity here depending on villain's hand, PT4 tells me in the exact spot I actually had 25%

The pot odds are not amazing due to my stack size. The question I suppose is, are the implied odds enough to carry me over the line here? This giant stack presumably also has some bluffs as well as a couple of obvious value jams here.
 
GreenDaddy1

GreenDaddy1

Rock Star
I'm sure I am making enough here if it was 100BB deep. My worry is given this is 130BB deep maybe calling this is not profitable unless I am very sure about villain's ability to bluff, which in this case I am really not.
 
M

mktpppr

Rock Star
P: fine.

F: just call. If we get 3bet then we can't 4bet jam, especially not vs a 16/13 villain: we will have to call and see a turn.

T: as played, solver probably says we must barrel, but I don't like it. In game I check behind to realize our equity.

As played (barrel), we have to fold vs check/jam. This is almost never a bluff from a 16/13 reg.

Villain will have to semi-bluff overpairs and top pairs for a call to be profitable, and that's not happening often enough in this spot in nl5, especially from a 16/13.
 
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