$400 NLHE Full Ring: 2/3 NLHE Deep Stacks

[WVHillbilly]

so if we shove $405 on the turn 100 times

if he folds 26 times we $195 26 times = 5,070
if he calls 74 times and we win 35%
we win 25.9 times, lose 46.1 times

so 25.9 times we win $530 = $13,727
46.1 times we lose $405 = $18,670.5

13,727 +5,070 = 18,797 so we're showing a slight profit there

am I wrong anywhere?

This doesn't account for the difference but we actually lose 48.1 times using your method not 46.1.

 

[baudib1]

oh you're right. so definitely more than 26%

 

[Cafeman]

Been chatting with Baud and I looked up the FE BE calcs, and it looks like it goes something like this:-

0 = XP + (1 - X)(-LV + WH)

Where...

X = Breakeven Folding Frequency
P = Current Size of the Pot
L = Maximum Loss
V = Villain's equity
W = Maximum Gain
H = Hero's Equity

So, we need to solve for X obv.

Let's punch in the numbers.

0 = 195X + (1 - X) (-405 x 0.65 + 530 x 0.35)
0 = 195X + -77.75(1 - X)
0 = 195X + 77.75X - 77.75
0 = 272.75X - 77.75
X = 77.75/272.75 = 0.285 BE point for FE. (or 29%)

Is this correct?

 

[baudib1]

I have this range for him that raises pre, bets flop and bets turn:

AA
KK
QQ
JJ
TT
99
AK
AQ
AJ
ATs
KQ
KJs
QJs

I think it's pretty conservative. That's 84 combos on this board and vs. our hand.

Honestly, I don't think his bet-sizing is indicative of a huge hand like AA or a set, but I won't discount them.

If he folds his ATs (3 combos), AK but not AKhh (11), that gets us to 17.9%. Does he call with JJ? I'll be conservative again and say he does. Does he call with AJ? If he can fold AJ 10/12 of the time we have break-even; if he always folds AJ we are profitable.

Now, that's assuming he always calls with 1-pair hands that beat us: KK, AQ, KQ. That's far from a given. We've also assumed he'd check hands like A9 or 88 on the turn.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Again not saying a shove won't be profitable, I just don't think it will be MORE profitable than calling. So what I'm saying is call >>shove>>>>>>>>>fold.

Thanks for actually doing the (correct) math cafeman31. Looks like if we'd have just went with baudib1's guess of 30% in the beginning we could have saved ourselves a little hassle.

 

[baudib1]

How could we figure out the EV on a call?

We have direct odds to call but problems remain:
1. Not sure are implied odds are great, especially since I'm not sure how strong his range is (his sizing really smells like AK/AJ type stuff) and most of our outs make the board look scary.

2. If he barrels again we might fold the best hand or call with the worse hand. If he has something like AT/AK/AJ and gets there it really blows.

also, should we consider how we can balance our turn shoving range?

 

[vanquish]

How could we figure out the EV on a call?

We have direct odds to call but problems remain:
1. Not sure are implied odds are great, especially since I'm not sure how strong his range is (his sizing really smells like AK/AJ type stuff) and most of our outs make the board look scary.

2. If he barrels again we might fold the best hand or call with the worse hand. If he has something like AT/AK/AJ and gets there it really blows.

also, should we consider how we can balance our turn shoving range?

No

 

[ThBonus]

I don't think villain is going to light value bet this board on river or go for a bluff too often, so probably raise turn.

 

[jchris67]

Since you turned a flush and have an open ended straight flush draw, I would have to say a small raise on the turn. Worst case is he would just call-best case he would raise. If a scary river comes, then you may not get value or could even get outdrawn.