400 NL: Tricky Turn: 6 Seater

calibanboy

calibanboy

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10 hands into the table.

Hero: $430
Villian: $517 (Small Blind)

Hero Js 8s raises $16 from Cut-off. ( regular raise )
Small Blind Calls. ( Pot = $34 )

Flop = 9s, 10s 3h

Comment: Nice flop: Up and down straight flush draw. ( 15 outs for straight or flush )

Villain: Riasies $20
Hero: Reraises $75
Villian Calls (Pot = 184 ).

Turn: 10h ( I checked because knew potential full house had hit and wanted to get end of hand as cheaply as possible especially with a non made hand and only one street to come.)

Villian Checks
Hero Checks.

Turn 7c ( I hit my straight. )

Villian bets $124

My Question: Whats the best long term decision here. Its either Call or fold I know that. ( A raise will only get called by full house ) But what the best long term decision against a standard/good player?

I knew that he had either
a) trips - very possible - eg a 10,j type hand.
b) a busted Flush draw. ( The only way he knows he can win is by betting )
c) Full house. ( likely with check on turn after getting fullhouse )
d) straight ( same as me - possible but unlikely )
e) An overpair. very possible too.

So I beat 3 of the 5 possibilities, but whats the correct long term play. I am interested in people comments here regardless of the outcome ( which is shown below in white )

I called. He showed the Full house. I know it was very likely. This is not a bad beat story as I knew this was very possible.
 
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smells_flushy

smells_flushy

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From the way you described it, I don't see how you put him on a full house.
 
joosebuck

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too bad the river wasn't the 7s. kinda depends on the type of player you're against. but against your average TAG i dont think a call is out of line with the straight. oop i think we can block bet/fold, but since he has first action i think that cuts down on our ability to see showdown somewhat, as pressure will be on us.

for most hands 7c is quite an akward card to fall here. im suprised he didnt check to you, having the full house and all. any other hand except quads/another fh/68s will probably fold
 
calibanboy

calibanboy

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From the way you described it, I don't see how you put him on a full house.

Whenever I play against anyone who calls a Continuation bet on the flop ( or a re-raise ) and either the turn or river pairs the board I always consider a potential full house. It does not not mean I think they have it - but I normally slow down a little to minimise potential losses if on flush or straight (Draws or made hand)

This is Especially true when I have raised 4x before the flop. In those circumstances I find people only usually call with PP or Ak, AQ, AJ or suited connectors
 
calibanboy

calibanboy

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too bad the river wasn't the 7s. kinda depends on the type of player you're against. but against your average TAG i dont think a call is out of line with the straight. oop i think we can block bet/fold, but since he has first action i think that cuts down on our ability to see showdown somewhat, as pressure will be on us.

for most hands 7c is quite an akward card to fall here. im suprised he didnt check to you, having the full house and all. any other hand except quads/another fh/68s will probably fold

Well I guess one reason for betting with the FH is that it looks like a bluff - eg busted flush draw. Funny enough If I was him I too would bet. ( maybe a different amount - but I would bet ).

So you think the call is not out of line - does that mean you think it is the correct long term play?
 
joosebuck

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well it kinda varies from player to player. there are players i would raise here vs, and players i wouldnt call a $40 bet here from.
 
calibanboy

calibanboy

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well it kinda varies from player to player. there are players i would raise here vs, and players i wouldnt call a $40 bet here from.

This is a fair point, and supports my other thread on the general forum that playing the opponent is more important than just the cards.....however what about an opponent you know nothing about?

also interested if/how you might play the hand a little different. ????( Regardless of the outcome )
 
joosebuck

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as is i like it, but im normally a 9-10max ring kinda guy, so it's hard to say specifically because of the things that change from going to a SHNLHE game
 
calibanboy

calibanboy

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as is i like it, but im normally a 9-10max ring kinda guy, so it's hard to say specifically because of the things that change from going to a SHNLHE game

I like the Small ring games as there are more marginal hands and decisions like this....tougher but can be more profitable. ( although more varience )
 
joosebuck

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ya i used to play $3/6 SHLHE for a while til i had to withdrawl like 95% of my BR for a sort of emergency
 
NineLions

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Well I guess one reason for betting with the FH is that it looks like a bluff - eg busted flush draw. Funny enough If I was him I too would bet. ( maybe a different amount - but I would bet ).

So you think the call is not out of line - does that mean you think it is the correct long term play?

This seems like the point in HoH where he would break down percentages for each hand for this particular situation for this particular villain, look at the overall likelihood of winning, the pot odds, then make his decision.

In other words, against a different villain or in a slightly different situation the results might be different.

But, perhaps you know your typical opponents well enough to garner a general idea, then determine percentages for likeliness of each hand to determine for yourself at your level whether this is +EV long term.
 
calibanboy

calibanboy

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This seems like the point in HoH where he would break down percentages for each hand for this particular situation for this particular villain, look at the overall likelihood of winning, the pot odds, then make his decision.

In other words, against a different villain or in a slightly different situation the results might be different.

But, perhaps you know your typical opponents well enough to garner a general idea, then determine percentages for likeliness of each hand to determine for yourself at your level whether this is +EV long term.

Good Point Ninelions. I agree with the above.

I have played ten hands with this chap. All I know is that he is up on his session at the table. ( which does not mean a lot either ) Other than that I have very little info.

Thats why I am intrigued on what people think is the correct play ?
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I'm trying to think of an opponent I've ever played with where I could lay this down, but I can't think of any, because I can't think of any opponent who couldn't play trips exactly the same way.

If you're wondering if it's +EV, just consider this: There are a lot more ways for him to have trips than for him to have a full house, and both make as much sense. Since you can beat trips, you therefore just about have to call any bet.
 
Bombjack

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I haven't looked at the results yet, but it looks like you played it fine. Call the river. You need to be good 2 out of 7 times versus a 2/3 pot river bet to call, or 29% of the time.
 
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