This is a discussion on €4 NLHE 6-max: What's wrong with my bluff? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 59/42/3
Fish with 3 AF 3bet on the Flop. He has Fold to Flop cBet 80%, not enough hands for Turn or River
Fish with 3 AF 3bet on the Flop. He has Fold to Flop cBet 80%, not enough hands for Turn or River fold percents.
He didn't show any strength, and then second 4 came to the River, and I tried to represent that I have 4 in my hand by making pot-sized bet, and he called with king pair with a weak kicker. Any idea what's wrong with this play? Why he didn't make any cBet? His Flop cBet percent is 58. Not enough info for T or R cBets.
That's a pretty easy call for Villain. How much 4x are you raise/calling with preflop? Your story simply wasn't believable. I wouldn't be 3betting K7 preflop, but I probably play this identically to Villain postflop. You could have tried betting turn AND river, that might get him off K7...but I doubt it. The only hands you are pushing villain off at that point are very weak Ax. He'll probably call with any pair or AQ/AJ/AT...because that to me looked like an obvious bluff.
The last street of the table did not favor you for the bluff.
In the river the card of hearts was not completed, there is no possibility of stairs and the 4 was folded.
Also on the river, there are combos by value that would seek to defend against a draw: J-9 and T-9.
Possibly there are combos by value, which could act as lantern receivers, such as A-8 and T-T for this board.
Add to that all the Kx combos, which are likely to call you most of the time.
Difficult place to try to deceive the villain.
To explain, what others have already said, in a more theory based way, the issue is, you are wildly unbalanced on the river, and this is pretty easy for anyone to figure out. You opened from CO, called a small 3-bet out of position, checked flop, checked turn, and then bet pot on the river. What hands would you do this with for value?
That is your value range. Two combos.
Maybe we can add in a few more combos of slowplayed sets or hands like 5s4s, 5c4c, but its still paper thin. Your bluffs however is everything, that missed and feel, it can not win at showdown. Maybe 100 combos. So you have 10-50 times more bluffs than value, and therefore of course Villain will call with any bluff catcher.
This is a really important concept in poker. Just because someone checked, does not mean, the now the pot belong to you, and you can just bluff away. If all nearly all your strong hands would have played differently on an earlier street, you have to give up with most of your weak hands, because you are not telling a credible story.
The much better bluffing line is to bet the turn, when you picked up a gutshot. You might still end up bluffing to much, if you bet all your gutshots, but at least with this line you have a much wider value range. Its pretty normal to check to the preflop raiser with your entire range, so while you probably can not have hands like AA, KK or AK because of preflop, at least you can have hands like 99, 88, 44, 98s,
KQ, KJ, KT.
You have a way wider value range, and therefore you can also have far more bluffs. And you also have equity, so you are not purely bluffing. You can improve to a straight, and you can improve to a pair, that will sometimes be good, if he has for instance A8 or A9. When you then brick on the river, you probably have to give up most of the time. Every draw missed, and maybe a hand like KT does not want to bet for value again. So if you bet again with all your missed draws, you probably end up bluffing to much.
Here we also need to look at, who the opponent is. He is playing 60% of hands preflop, so he is clearly someone playing for fun, and you are playing for pennies. He is not interested in folding preflop (he 3-bet K7o!!!), and there is no reason to think, he is interested in folding postflop either. It can basically be boiled down to this: Dont bluff fish. Just simply dont.
And in this case QJs is a speculative hand from that position (and from any position)
Generally a speculative hand should be attractive on coordinated boards, which give you good equity.
On the turn, a staircase project to a tip (gutshot) is just opened. But it only has 4 outs, which would make your hand prosper, something similar to 8% so that your hand improves and becomes a winner.
I think these hands can be checked without problems, and you could even call on the turn but it should be a small enough bet, since your odds are very low.
It is not a good hand to bluff on the turn, it is preferable to get free streets and before an increase make fold.
It is not bad to fold fold preflop with this hand, since you are out of position.
re: Poker & €4 NLHE 6-max: What's wrong with my bluff?
Hey. I do not think that in this situation there should generally be a bluff. This is an opponent who plays a fairly large range, usually a similar type of opponents does not know the "fold" button. I was very surprised that he checked 2 streets.