This is a discussion on $4 NLHE 6-max: Value betting 2 pair 3 streets within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/15/4
iPoker - €0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: 107.5 BB
CO: 102.75 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
iPoker - €0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: 107.5 BB CO: 102.75 BB Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 153.75 BB
BB: 302.25 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB Pre Flop:(pot: 1.5 BB)Hero has 7♥ 6♥ fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB Flop:(8 BB, 3 players) 6♠ T♦ 7♣
BB checks, CO bets 5.5 BB, Hero raises to 16 BB, fold, CO calls 10.5 BB Turn:(40 BB, 2 players) 2♣ CO checks, Hero bets 25 BB, CO calls 25 BB River:(90 BB, 2 players) 3♣ CO checks, Hero bets 56.5 BB, CO calls 56.5 BB CO shows.........
Just interested in how some other people might have played this hand at the micro stakes.
Only 63 hands on villain with those stats. Not enough hands to rely take a view on any of his other stats. My own stats at the table over about 50 hands were 30/24/4
My thinking was:
- Calling that on the button all day long.
- On the flop 89 is beating me and so is TT. I'm blocking sets of 6s and 7s.
- Overpairs and any connectors/gappers drawing to the straight might call, particularly if they made a pair, eg T9, 78. Does AK, AQ call? AT maybe. Would not rule it out at 4nl but admit it might not be likely as his stats so far were not terrible.
- My plan was raise and then be aggressive again on the turn if it was kind to me
- The 2 on the turn brought in a draw to a flush. Was quite happy to bet again here to get more value vs any draws.
- The river brought in the flush and a low straight. That said, I can't imagine he had opened 45 (possible, yes, but not too likely with his stats). Villain making a flush was possible, but he fails to have a flush much more often than he does have one.
- People make bad calls for three streets here at these stakes, population tendencies are telling me to get it all in with two pair (rather than make some sort of thin value bet and I just feel checking here is burning money) on a board that I don't think is all that scary given how the hand played out, against a villain who I felt would have played back at me if he had made a big hand.
Away from the action, the question I expect is... what worse hands made it this far and call my river shove? I go bust to any flush and the afore mentioned Set of 10s and 89. Very rarely a set of 6s or 7s. I am totally not accepting he would have got past the flop with 22 or 33. I'm relying on hands like AA,KK,QQ being non believers or over-valuing - that is not a ton of combinations. Maybe a busted Tx draw makes a terrible call here too, or AT?
Anyway, I shoved and I don't feel bad about it :P But thoughts welcomed and appreciated as always.
You raised him on the flop, so you are actually not trying to get 3 streets of value here, you are trying to get 4 streets. And given that he is not a fish, that does seem very optimistic to me. I am fine raising the flop and betting the turn, but I prefer to check back on this river. 54 got there, and backdoor clubs as well, so this was not the greatest card for you, and a good player is probably not calling you down with an overpair on this runout. I also prefer 3-betting preflop. This is a perfect hand to mix into your 3-betting range as a bluff, because it gives you coverage on low flops like this, and it does well against hands like AK, AQ or KQ, that he might continue with.