25NL TT on button 3bet?

[Effexor]

Stacks: - Effexor with $22.80 - bastlkot with $24.75 - bossdavo with $15.25 - TreyFu with $25.00 - cledus_76 with $6.60 - Raff2448 with $19.15 - PMC6 with $22.25 - jepprdeppr with $24.75 - Saulo_Colla with $7.10

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: full tilt poker
Dealt to Effexor:

* - Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
**- 2 players fold.
* - pmc6 raises to $0.75
* - jepprdeppr raises to $2.25
**- 1 players fold.
effexor calls [$2.25]
**- 2 players fold.
* - pmc6 calls [$1.50]
* - Total folds this street: 5
* - Potsize: $7.1
Flop:

* - PMC6 checks
* - jepprdeppr bets [$2.25] effexor ?????

Should I have 3bet PF? I think I should have, making that mistake #1.

Now, with the check and cbet in front of me, what is the most likely range of hands they would have?

Whats the best play at this point?

 

[c9h13no3]

Reads on pre-flop re-raiser? Would he 3-bet hands like AK, AQ, 66+?

I don't mind re-re-raising the flop.

But consider the size of his bet on the flop. It's rather small. I pump it up to 7$, and go from there. If flat called, I think its possible to bet any non-club turn if he checks to us, otherwise, I'm planning to call down and try to get to showdown.

The reason I raise is to try and give less favorable odds to draw to a flush, and because its a pretty cheap opportunity to show strength in the hand. If his bet on the flop had been more aggressive, I would have played things differently. But now looks like a good time to steal 9 bucks with a 7$ raise.

 

[ChuckTs]

Yeah, reads/stats are pretty important here. It basically could potentially shift a 4-bet (his $2.25 was the 3-bet) to a fold.

As played I fold and get out of the way barring villain being a maniac.

 

[Effexor]

This was like the second orbit so no stats at this point, but he hadn't played any hands either, so I should give him some respect.

This is a classic example of how I waver between Hyper-agrro donk and Weak Tight Fish.

 

[baconn]

I would put him on a pair like 88,99 maybe as high as JJ or AK, AQ. If you had bet pre-flop we would have a better read on him. I would just call, our hand might still be ahead.

 

[ChuckTs]

Reads on the initial raiser so far?

I'm only realizing now how small his c-bet is and I might raise to like $7 and shut down to any action. It looks like a really scared bet; not sure he does this with a strong overpair.

Again the pf action is really reads-dependent but I hate cold calling since we'll often find ourselves in really ugly postflop spots like this.

 

[jeffred1111]

As played, raise his c-bet to 7$, fold to any action on flop, fold to any club turn if still three handed.

Initial raiser's range can be pretty wide after he flats it, so you need reads here to give you the optimal flop line (he can have 77+,JTs,QJs,ATs+,Ajo+ if he is laggy, while if he is a passive fish, his range looks more like TT-JJ,AQs+).

Reraiser's range is probably flipping with us though, unless he is some ultra aggro maniac (99+,AQo+,AJs+). So our equity is probably 1/3 of the pot three handed, meaning that any fold we get on the flop is good for us and increases our chances of winning. It also makes the hand a lot easier to play onwards, because we have position and can probably fold to a donk bet on club turn. Another thing, WA/WB applies here, so you should not try to protect your hand on the turn if it comes non-club (unless you turn a set): we are about 1:1 to win, so there's really nothign to protect, unless you have a read that villain will fold to a non-club turn if he checks and you bet. Keep the pot small.

I also really don't like 4-betting preflop since we are doing this with the bottom of our range and only keeping in the hands that beat us (and we can't call a shove + we negate our positional advantage). TT can be played for set value, but not for stacks pre so I disagree with Chuck here. 4-betting in this spot must be done for value, unless we plan on 4-betting/folding wich is akin to burning money. But what do I know, I'm such a nit @ FR.

So raise > fold >>>>>>> call.

 

[c9h13no3]

Another thing, WA/WB applies here, so you should not try to protect your hand on the turn if it comes non-club

I disagree. A hand like AcKc has 15 outs against us, which is ~30% to win with 1 card to come. I wouldn't really call that way behind.

 

[jeffred1111]

I disagree. A hand like AcKc has 15 outs against us, which is ~30% to win with 1 card to come. I wouldn't really call that way behind.

This is one hand. We do not want to bloat the pot if we are behind since we're basically flipping against the aforementionned range.

You have to make the right play against villain's range, not against one hand picked from his range (unless you know this hand is much more likely than others, wich, @ this point, is not). If we were to do so, we should fold immediatly since villain could very well be holding AA and we're a huge dog.

I'll repeat that: we should never pinpoint villain on a single hand. We should evaluate his range and play accordingly. Sometimes (very rarely), villain's range can only contain one hand (opponent who only goes AI with AA preflop for example), but in this example, it contains way more than AcKc.

We have a hand that has showdown value, let's show it down.

 

[c9h13no3]

You have to make the right play against villain's range, not against one hand picked from his range (unless you know this hand is much more likely than others, wich, @ this point, is not).

But that's the thing, I think villain's range is leaning more towards overs + a flush draw if he flat calls our flop raise, and checks to us on the turn.

I put villain's range as such:

1) JJ+ <-- likely to lead out a bit stronger than just 30% of the pot
2) 99 or less <-- less likely to 3-bet pre-flop
3) Unpaired overcards <-- probably not calling a raise on the flop.
4) Unpaired overs + club draw. (AcKc, AcQc)

Because of the reason's above, I'm leaning more towards group 4. And besides, group 2 is unlikely to fold if we fire on the turn.

Also, if we raise the flop to $7.50, we only have 13$ left behind in a $16.85 pot. Villain has the same issue as well (being pot committed). If we check behind on the turn, we also invite a bluff, which will come in the form of his whole stack rolling into the middle. Would you really prefer checking behind & calling a shove on the river to just pushing ourselves on the turn if checked to? Or worse yet, we check the hand down to showdown, and he shows a draw we could have possibly gotten more value out of by shoving the turn. A turn shove would give a 2:1 draw 2.3:1 on his money... We might see calls from all of villain's range even if we do shove the turn.

Also, we have to dodge a club, an ace, or probably a king if we legitimately want to call a shove on the river. And those are the most likely cards that our villain will shove on if we take the line that you discussed.

However, this is probably a mute point. If we raise the flop bet, we're probably ending the hand, or having villain's range come over the top of us.

 

[Effexor]

It never ceases to amaze me how spot on you folks are in the analysis.

Here's the rest of the hand, Hyper-agrro-donk mode.

Stacks: - Effexor with $22.80 - bastlkot with $24.75 - bossdavo with $15.25 - TreyFu with $25.00 - cledus_76 with $6.60 - Raff2448 with $19.15 - PMC6 with $22.25 - jepprdeppr with $24.75 - Saulo_Colla with $7.10

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: Full Tilt Poker
Dealt to Effexor:

- Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
- 2 players fold.
- pmc6 raises to $0.75
- jepprdeppr raises to $2.25
- 1 players fold.
effexor calls [$2.25]
- 2 players fold.
- pmc6 calls [$1.50]
- Total folds this street: 5
- Potsize: $7.1
Flop:

- PMC6 checks
- jepprdeppr bets [$2.25] effexor raises to $10
- 1 players fold.
- jepprdeppr calls [$7.75]
- Total folds this street: 1
- Potsize: $27.1
Turn:

- jepprdeppr checks effexor bets [$10.55, and is all in]
- jepprdeppr calls [$10.55] Effexor shows :

- jepprdeppr shows :

- Potsize: $48.2
River:

- Effexor shows two pair, Tens and Twos
- jepprdeppr shows a pair of Twos Effexor wins the pot ($45.80) with two pair, Tens and Twos

I think I really overplayed the hand and was lucky to not run into a bigger pair.

 

[c9h13no3]

jepprdeppr bets [$2.25] effexor raises to $10

This seems a little bit much, and I would expect AcKc to shove to your raise on the flop. But I suppose if you play passive enough to only bet 30% of the pot on the flop, you're not comin' over the top either...

Now we can debate the validity of a turn shove after being checked to