25NL 6max. Good bluffing line ?

[BelgoSuisse]

Villain is 15/12/5 over 160 hands. I've just sat down at the table so I'm not sure he has reads on me from previous encounters. If he does, I play 22/18/4.

Calling with 2nd pair on the flop. When he 2-barrels the turn, I would usually fold, but here I think the 9 allows me to rep KT. Is this a reasonable line to take? On the turn, he took a long time to make the call when I raised.

Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG: $40.25 (161 bb)
MP: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $25.35 (101.4 bb)
BTN: $50.80 (203.2 bb)
SB: $42.75 (171 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with K

J

2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.05) Q

5

J

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($4.05) 9

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.25, Hero raises to $6.75, BTN calls $4.50

River: ($17.55) 2

(2 players)
Hero bets $16.75 and is all-in

 

[c9h13no3]

Could you explain your flop line? OOP, I like just c-betting this. I think a turn c/r would carry a lot more weight if we bet the flop.

His bets are also kinda smallish to be a bluff, so I don't really like bluffing a villain who is value-betting earlier in the hand.

I'm kinda meh on following up on the turn C/R too. River didn't change much, I think he's gonna get sticky here with most of his range that calls the turn.

This is a pretty tough board to play OOP. So idk, I think its a tougher spot that the number of replies indicates.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Could you explain your flop line? OOP, I like just c-betting this. I think a turn c/r would carry a lot more weight if we bet the flop.

Sorry, my flop line is related to reads on villain. He's 0% fold to flop bet, so I expect him to float or raise me 100% if I cbet.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

This is a pretty tough board to play OOP. So idk, I think its a tougher spot that the number of replies indicates.

People don't reply much to bluffing threads i guess.

I'll try to justify my line further. I think a 15/12/5 will fire two barrels often enough here to make the C/R on the turn not unreasonable, although maybe a little spewy indeed.

Once he calls the C/R, I think it really narrows down his range very much. Anything better than top pair he would reraise on the turn. Anything much worse than top pair he would muck unless he has a good draw. So that means I expect him to have AQ (although he would probably 3bet it preflop) KQ, QT. Maybe he has JT or T9, but i think that's less likely.

River bricks, so his turn hand has not improved. My shove is specifically meant to fold top pair. I think it's consistent with my line and with my read.

 

[c9h13no3]

Sorry, my flop line is related to reads on villain. He's 0% fold to flop bet, so I expect him to float or raise me 100% if I cbet.

I kinda think the C/R on the turn is pretty good with the gutshot outs. Our outs have ZERO implied odds, as villain is never paying us with worse when a T hits, so using the gut shot's equity to make a play at the pot is okay.

The river play is totally gonna depend on stats/reads here for me. If his went to showdown is about 30% or more, I think we're totally spewing money here. And against a TAG who folds to 0% of flop bets, I think he likes bluff catching, so I'd probably expect him to call down light.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

The river play is totally gonna depend on stats/reads here for me. If his went to showdown is about 30% or more, I think we're totally spewing money here. And against a TAG who folds to 0% of flop bets, I think he likes bluff catching, so I'd probably expect him to call down light.

I'll check WTSD when I get back home.

On the other hand, i don't think that FFB is relevant on the river anymore. I think there are a lot of players who will play small ball with you on any flop but give up without a real powerhouse once you play for stacks.

 

[ChuckTs]

wtsd doesn't really converge for quite a while. The later (in streets) the stats relate to, the longer they take to do so. Unless it's insanely big or small I don't think it should have much bearing here.

Flop is fine against an aggressive opponent, it's probably ideal actually. We often have the best hand so we don't want to get pushed off it, plus it's a pretty marginal holding and we don't want to build a big pot.

I don't understand what you're going for on the turn. What other hands do you take this line with? He's rarely folding a queen as you're representing such a tiny (unlikely) range. He's definitely expecting your KT to bet the flop too.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

He's rarely folding a queen as you're representing such a tiny (unlikely) range. He's definitely expecting your KT to bet the flop too.

I would probably CR on the flop if I had a set or QJ then, but i could also wait for the turn, then i would legitimately CR the turn with straights, sets, two pairs, i.e. KT, Q9, J9, 99 as well as some draws (QT,JT, T9?). Of those, a large majority are 2 pairs, set of 9s and straights that I value bet on the river.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

I've thinking a bit more about this hand.

I get your point about the turn, Chuck. The only hands I could fold there are hands that I beat already, so that's not a great result.

I think I stand by my play on the flop and the river, but the river part may be results oriented as villain did fold.

Thanks for the comments, c9 and Chuck.