$25 NLHE Full Ring: But,But i have pocket AA "Golly gee beav"

[RamdeeBen]

3Way, an over pair is rarely ever good on this flop/turn...

I fold check/fold turn tbh and don't like committing yourself 3way to fold with 2.5/1 odds as you are never, ever good when button shoves here and BB calls.

You need two pair at least here to be getting your chips in regardless of odds and even 2 pair I don't like calling tbh giving the action.

 

[kanselau]

with two callers on the flop , and so many callers pre , we cant be too confident that our rockets are any good on the turn, so maybe a check for pot control in order , check see what btn and bb do , if btn bets and bb calls or jams .im out of there ,...... as played the rockets are in the muck and im getting some fresh air

 

[kanselau]

with so many callers pre and 2 callers on flop we can be preety shore are AA is behind , i have seen some v.good players call with suited connectors , small/medium pairs and suited As ,defending their blinds , by the time the fish calls the BB is getting a good price to call his BB. So sets and floped straight well within his range. As for the fish he could basicaly have anything. So if we put both players range in stove it looks like we are getting good equity to call , Imo though this is distorted information as we are considering both fish (very wide range ) with nit( narrow range ) together. The nit has a set or straight here IMO and if he hasnt then the fish has and is probably a half breed fish/donk and is slow playing all the way to the river. check see what btn then bb does - fold to any action

 

[Deco]

Whether to fold to the shove or not is debatable. Not value towning the fish on the turn here is dumb. Even if we gave the tighter villain a super tight range of ATs/JJ/sets we're still only beat a little over 50% of the time. If nitty villain has loosened up enough to include 78/T9 then he's loose enough to have JT/QT/KT/ATo as well. As a further aside the hands we beat flat the flop 100% of the time. The hands we lose to will raise x% of the time.

I think too much hindsite is going on itt. Betting the turn has put us in a tough spot where we are behind the mass majority of the time. That's poker it was the EV+ thing to do, the worst case scenario has occurred so now we need to make a tough decision. Varying your betsize or worse checking, to make your decision easier is dumb. You should make the most optimal regardless of how hard or easy the hand is to play. People seem to blur the concept of planning your hand to make the most money with planning your hand to make your decisions easy. If you want easy decisions shove preflop every hand, you'll never be put in a tough spot again

 

[baudib1]

BB has us beat close to 100%.

 

[Cafeman]

Well quite.

 

[Deco]

BB has us beat close to 100%.

Do you think he folds JJ and ATs on the flop or pre?

 

[WVHillbilly]

BB has us beat close to 100%.

Yeah AFTER he shoves the turn we know that but not betting the turn because he flatted the flop is silly. He's going to keep calling with a ton of stuff we beat so not betting seems like such a waste of money. I'd bet that if op had posted:
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem (8 players)
SB: $14.01
BB: $25 VPIP 14% PFR 9% AGG 1.7 HANDS 338
UTG: $24.65
UTG+1: $30.02 (sitting out)
MP Hero: $40.53
MP+1: $26.29
CO: $15.81
BTN: $62.49 VPIP 42% PFR 18% AGG 2.3 HANDS 139

Pre-flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP and dealt
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.85, MP+1 folds, CO calls $0.85, BTN calls $0.85, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($4.25) (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $3.18, CO folds, BTN calls $3.18, SB folds, BB calls $3.18

Turn: ($13.79) (4 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

you're advice would have been to bet.

 

[baudib1]

I said to bet around $5 and clearly fold to 2 shoves. BB overcalling flop is a bit scary but we should still bet the turn. BTN shoving and BB calling the shove has us drawing dead. This is a pretty nasty board that we're not going to get stacks in good very often after the flop action.

 

[baudib1]

Do you think he folds JJ and ATs on the flop or pre?

Neither, but he's never sticking it in here after this action with either. Our hand is pretty obviously defined as an overpair and BTN is repping a range that crushes overpairs. It's not like we haven't shown any strength or anything, the turn bet is absurd. If you get 14/9 types stacking with JJ on T-high flops vs. 2 people at NL25 let me know, but I really don't think it happens.

 

[Deco]

Thought you were replying to my last post and hence arguing against the turn bet. My bad.

I don't think we will lose JJ/AT as often as you think. The Buttons shove really isn't that scary he's a huge fish, 67/89 could fancy a pair and a straight draws good, Tx could reason to remove the draws, the reservations we have about multiway pots will not apply to him, we're only calling $11 more than had only hero bet. I fold in the BBs spot because I'm scared of Hero's range not the button.

At the end of the day were calling $25 into a $101 pot we need to be good 20% of the time. I agree were behind most the time but I think we can see the BB with JJ/AT and the fish with a flushdraw/Tx/overpair/Gutshot+pair/JT/QJ 1 in 5 times. Very close like I just wanted to vent about not betting the turn. Could go either way with whether to stack or not.