c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
No look noobsauce, just because someone limps & 4-bets does not mean they have aces the majority of the time. They have a range, and most of that is *not* aces. On top of that, when we have AK they have a reduced number of aces in their range because we have an A in our hand.
If you want an example hand, I have one for you that I just happened to play today.
Ultimate Bet, $0.25/$0.50 NL, $0.10 Ante Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
BB: $17.95 (35.9 bb)
UTG: $14.70 (29.4 bb)
MP: $39.80 (79.6 bb)
CO: $20.45 (40.9 bb)
BTN: $63.60 (127.2 bb)
Hero (SB): $88.15 (176.3 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with [Qc] [Ks]
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, BTN raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, 3 folds, CO raises to $20.35, BTN folds, Hero calls $10.35
Flop: ($45.20) [7h] [8d] [Ah] (2 players)
Turn: ($45.20) [Jd] (2 players)
River: ($45.20) [Jh] (2 players)
Results: $45.20 pot ($2.15 rake)
CO showed [10h] [10d] (two pairs, Jacks and Tens) and won $43.05 ($22.70 net)
Hero showed [Qc] [Ks] (a pair of Jacks) and lost (-$20.35 net)
This thread is driving me absolutely nuts. It epitomizes the problems with the HA forum. Threads that are over & solved get tons of retarded replies that add nothing meaningful to the discussion while good threads are passed over because these steaming piles are bumped to the top.
[/rant]
BLieve
Rock Star
Silver Level
Clap clap we have a name caller.
1. You have more experience than me. Gotchu I concede.
2. Solved? Hardly, the purpose of the thread is to analyze what villain may be holding with such a specific play. This is where the community inputs facts, hypotheses, opinions, experiences etc. The OP and everyone else can decide for themselves what is important or not what is right or wrong. You are entitled to say how wrong I am till you need crutches for your fingers but this noobsauce will stay posting.
3. If you would have read carefully I said I would assign a 25-50% chance villain holds AA/KK. If villain holds 22-QQ 80% of the time, AA/KK 10% of the time, and something else 10% of the time, this move will come out just about EV or slight + EV. I love how some of you "experts" make it sound like you would make this decision in a snap or a heartbeat. It is a difficult decision and one that can put you on tilt if this is how you choose to start off a session.
1. You have more experience than me. Gotchu I concede.
2. Solved? Hardly, the purpose of the thread is to analyze what villain may be holding with such a specific play. This is where the community inputs facts, hypotheses, opinions, experiences etc. The OP and everyone else can decide for themselves what is important or not what is right or wrong. You are entitled to say how wrong I am till you need crutches for your fingers but this noobsauce will stay posting.
3. If you would have read carefully I said I would assign a 25-50% chance villain holds AA/KK. If villain holds 22-QQ 80% of the time, AA/KK 10% of the time, and something else 10% of the time, this move will come out just about EV or slight + EV. I love how some of you "experts" make it sound like you would make this decision in a snap or a heartbeat. It is a difficult decision and one that can put you on tilt if this is how you choose to start off a session.
BelgoSuisse
Legend
Silver Level
I mostly agree. Although the thread isn't entirely solved yet, imo, because nobody told OP that his iso-raise preflop was a little small. I'd almost certainly make it $3.5 in this spot.
you can't put numbers out like that without any justification for them.
Saying villain has AA/KK 50% of the time when we have AK means we assign him a range that is strictly QQ+ (6 combos of QQ, 3 combos of KK, 3 combos of AA). Is that really what you meant or did you just invent a number out of thin air?
Z
Zybomb
Rock Star
Silver Level
Insta shove
- We have better than 1:1 on our money
- We flip with PPs QQ and below
- We still have 30% equity against KK, so really only AA has us truly dead
- People are forgetting VILLAIN WILL FOLD some non zero percent of the time.
I haven't play this low ever so I don't know exactly the play... but if we are unwilling to assign AQ to his range, we have to assume that villain is folding TT for example, a decent amount of the time to a shove. I mean from TTs perspective we have either AK which he flips with or JJ+ which he's dead to, are we expecting 99% calls?
As a general rule, for 100BBs folding AKs pre is almost always wrong. Exceptions would be if a super nit 4 bets (or in some extreme cases 3 bets even), or reraises are just so uncommon that it is QQ+ almost always (villains are flatting AK and JJ regularly)
- We have better than 1:1 on our money
- We flip with PPs QQ and below
- We still have 30% equity against KK, so really only AA has us truly dead
- People are forgetting VILLAIN WILL FOLD some non zero percent of the time.
I haven't play this low ever so I don't know exactly the play... but if we are unwilling to assign AQ to his range, we have to assume that villain is folding TT for example, a decent amount of the time to a shove. I mean from TTs perspective we have either AK which he flips with or JJ+ which he's dead to, are we expecting 99% calls?
As a general rule, for 100BBs folding AKs pre is almost always wrong. Exceptions would be if a super nit 4 bets (or in some extreme cases 3 bets even), or reraises are just so uncommon that it is QQ+ almost always (villains are flatting AK and JJ regularly)
Dorkus Malorkus
HELLO INTERNET
Silver Level
Aint this a bitch, look what happened just now.
Absolute/Ultimatebet Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Absolute/Ultimatebet Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($65.29)
SB ($18)
Hero (BB) ($59.30)
UTG ($49.25)
UTG+1 ($53.84)
MP1 ($41.20)
MP2 ($9.50)
MP3 ($85.28)
CO ($25.50)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO bets $3.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $11.50, 2 folds, MP2 calls $9 (All-In), 1 fold
Flop: ($23.50) Q, 5, 4(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: ($23.50) 4(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($23.50) 3(2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $23.50 | Rake: $1.65
For whatever reason, I cant seem to convert the rest of my hand but the limp raiser had surprise surprise AA. I was just happy that the idiot only had a $10 stack.
clearly you should have folded preflop.
YES! even if villain only folds say 10%, that's 10% of the time we're picking up a ~$14 pot uncontested as opposed to probably flipping for ~$50, which obviously has a huge impact on our equity.
Look at it like this.
GOOD:
- Large chance we're flipping (66 combinations of hands if QQ-22 is in his range)
- Small chance villain will fold
- Small chance villain is spewing with crap
BAD:
- Small chance villain has AA/KK (6 possible combinations)
You don't need to go plugging numbers into Pokerstove or something to realise we should be shoving here. Even if you really do think the AA/KK "I trap with my monster ooh he raised let's gogo" makes more sense than the "I set mine oh some guy is squeeziing let's raise and hope he folds or we're flipping" (hint: it doesn't), there is no way it's possible to argue it makes 10 times more sense.
Umm, him being 30/8 gives credence to the argument that he's calling wide preflop and thus widens his range. Given that this is over a sample of 30 hands, it's very hard to use it as a justification for him never squeezing, because squeeze opportunities don't come around all that often.
NineLions
Advanced beginner
Silver Level
I mostly agree. Although the thread isn't entirely solved yet, imo, because nobody told OP that his iso-raise preflop was a little small. I'd almost certainly make it $3.5 in this spot.
Thank you; good point.
BLieve
Rock Star
Silver Level
When a NIT 4bets PF we can assign a range of QQ+. This is based on everyones general experience. Take my experience for what its worth or dont take it. All I am saying is the times I have seen this move pulled, at least half the time villain shows AA KK. So if this situation happened to ME, I would assign a 25-50% chance of AA/KK. Ignore it if you want to, I am just giving the OP my input.
I know you are being sarcastic but how do I fold PF if I put villain all in with my bet?
slycbnew
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
General thoughts on this thread - and seriously this isn't addressed at any specific individual:
OP's original question is what the range is for a 25nl 30/18/8 player who limps behind/raises in CO (WV makes the imo extremely important point that this isn't a real 4bet - the question in my mind is what this player's range is, i.e. is he good enough to read Hero's play as a light squeeze or not). Great discussion on the math involved in playing AKs against various ranges, dead money, pot odds, etc.
A few comments that aren't really advancing the discussion in the thread, including the obligatory "AK is a drawing hand" post.
Single examples doesn't show anything - sometimes it's going to be AA and we'll lose, the question is what the overall range is and what we should do given that range. We tend to remember getting smoked when we make the right play, and tend to forget all the times the right play worked out for us (because it worked out the way it "should" have).
A few questions/challenges regarding evidence for positions taken. Questions and challenges are good, please take them seriously and address them and be open to the possibility that your position may not be the best position.
A few posts made where it appears poster didn't read the thread, just the OP (not an uncommon event).
It'd be great imo if we stop posting in this thread if we're not addressing OP's original question. There's been some great discussion here, but I don't think we're really advancing the discussion at this point (belgo's point about betsize notwithstanding)
OP's original question is what the range is for a 25nl 30/18/8 player who limps behind/raises in CO (WV makes the imo extremely important point that this isn't a real 4bet - the question in my mind is what this player's range is, i.e. is he good enough to read Hero's play as a light squeeze or not). Great discussion on the math involved in playing AKs against various ranges, dead money, pot odds, etc.
A few comments that aren't really advancing the discussion in the thread, including the obligatory "AK is a drawing hand" post.
Single examples doesn't show anything - sometimes it's going to be AA and we'll lose, the question is what the overall range is and what we should do given that range. We tend to remember getting smoked when we make the right play, and tend to forget all the times the right play worked out for us (because it worked out the way it "should" have).
A few questions/challenges regarding evidence for positions taken. Questions and challenges are good, please take them seriously and address them and be open to the possibility that your position may not be the best position.
A few posts made where it appears poster didn't read the thread, just the OP (not an uncommon event).
It'd be great imo if we stop posting in this thread if we're not addressing OP's original question. There's been some great discussion here, but I don't think we're really advancing the discussion at this point (belgo's point about betsize notwithstanding)