$25 NLHE 6-max: Bottom set, V flats our flop 3-bet

[loafaBREAD]

HAve 41 hands on V, he seems normal enough. (Would 3-bet TT here)

I remember thinking ITH that 'he can't have QJ here'... then after the hand I realized QJ has a double gutter on the flop...

I have a similar spot yesterday as the pre flop caller with AT (same board, too!) and I 4-bet all in vs the pfrs flop 3-bet, since AT blocks most of the PFRs sets, and since 2 air is the top of a callers range, but still a vulnerable hand.

So when he flats there he only has QJ? If so, how do we navigate the turn?

I patiently await your advice and wisdom, my fellow CCers!

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

SB: 142.2 BB
BB: 76.24 BB
UTG: 109.28 BB
Hero (CO): 128.68 BB
BTN: 107.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8:diamond: 8:club:

fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, BTN calls 2.4 BB, fold, BB calls 1.4 BB

Flop: (7.6 BB, 3 players) T:diamond: A:club: 8:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets 3.4 BB, BTN raises to 9.8 BB, fold, Hero raises to 28.2 BB, BTN calls 18.4 BB

Turn: (64 BB, 2 players) K:spade:
Hero bets 24 BB, BTN raises to 51.2 BB, Hero raises to 98.08 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 26 BB and is all-in

 

[300HPGOD]

I will start with the flop as pre flop seems normal to me (I dont play $25NL so not sure if 2.4x is enough or not but it probably is at those levels). On the flop though, its being picky I know, but I like a bigger bet there. There are so many Ax hands going against two opponents that will call us here that betting under half here is giving up some potential value. Wound up not mattering here but on other hands it could be the difference down the line of being able to get all our chips in or not by the end. I like the 4.5-5BB range myself but again that is just my opinion and as far as this hands goes is a moot point.

The turn as played I feel the same way. Nothing wrong with your bet but with any AQ or AJ now having a gutter you will still get a ton of calls from Ax hands and you probably wont get 3 streets from them so I would go bigger, around half pot. Same as before though that it does not matter for this hand but it will affect other hands that are similar to this spot. As it winds up going I 100% am on board with you jamming over their raise. They could be doing this with many hands we beat like Ax hands, two pair hands and maybe even those AQ and AJ hands. As far as your thinking about QJ, I would way more doubt that they have it vs the possibility they do so I woundn't be worried about it. Its possible of course they have that but are they really raising the flop with that and then also calling our large raise on the flop with it? I doubt it. Then add on that if they do have it and just nailed the nuts would they even raise the turn? They might just call there with a stack of 53BB left if my math is right and the pot size going to the river would be over 100BB. The board is rainbow so they would only be worried about the board pairing if in fact you did have a set (we know you do but villain doesnt know that). I think they would just call that turn bet a lot and get it in on the river one way or another. The hand to me doesnt add up to QJ so I would be raising over them as you did.

 

[loafaBREAD]

I will start with the flop as pre flop seems normal to me (I dont play $25NL so not sure if 2.4x is enough or not but it probably is at those levels). On the flop though, its being picky I know, but I like a bigger bet there. There are so many Ax hands going against two opponents that will call us here that betting under half here is giving up some potential value. Wound up not mattering here but on other hands it could be the difference down the line of being able to get all our chips in or not by the end. I like the 4.5-5BB range myself but again that is just my opinion and as far as this hands goes is a moot point.

The turn as played I feel the same way. Nothing wrong with your bet but with any AQ or AJ now having a gutter you will still get a ton of calls from Ax hands and you probably wont get 3 streets from them so I would go bigger, around half pot. Same as before though that it does not matter for this hand but it will affect other hands that are similar to this spot. As it winds up going I 100% am on board with you jamming over their raise. They could be doing this with many hands we beat like Ax hands, two pair hands and maybe even those AQ and AJ hands. As far as your thinking about QJ, I would way more doubt that they have it vs the possibility they do so I woundn't be worried about it. Its possible of course they have that but are they really raising the flop with that and then also calling our large raise on the flop with it? I doubt it. Then add on that if they do have it and just nailed the nuts would they even raise the turn? They might just call there with a stack of 53BB left if my math is right and the pot size going to the river would be over 100BB. The board is rainbow so they would only be worried about the board pairing if in fact you did have a set (we know you do but villain doesnt know that). I think they would just call that turn bet a lot and get it in on the river one way or another. The hand to me doesnt add up to QJ so I would be raising over them as you did.

Seems like you have a pretty good understanding of this spot, I'll have to study it more!

Obv. V did have QJo there, but I will add that to his notes. Agree most V's wouldnt raise the turn once they hit the nuts IP.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

I mostly agree with 300HPGOD, pre is standard and I like the idea of going a bit larger on the flop vs 2 players to charge Ax. I don't mind the standard half pot sizing either though. Getting raised is sweet here on a rainbow board. Here's where I veer off a bit. I would be AT LEAST potting this 3 bet (40.4 BB) as all of the value combos that beat us should have been 3 betting so there's maybe 2 slow played combos of over sets. Could be a good spot for an overbet as well. I want to stack AT, A8, T8, and put J9, 97, and QJ in bad spots. If we pot it or go even slightly larger it sets up a trivial turn jam. Our standard-ish raise size actually charges the straight draws 28.75% (calling 18.4 BB to win 64 BB) when they have about 26% equity against our exact hand. If we had the AT instead of the set then V would have his 29% equity and be making a correct call. But even with our set it's almost a break even call without implied odds. We can say "oh he should fold to the flop 3 bet", but after Hero 3 bets I think it sends a strong signal that if they hit the implied odds are pretty much "stacks" and since it's a rainbow all of his outs are clean. So I think V has to call with all of this straight draws. I don't mind Vs flop raise either as Hero will often show up here with less than Ax and have to fold. It's probably too light to raise every straight draw but the nut straight draw with good blockers seems fine at some frequency. Especially if there's any read on c-betting too often. I'd hate to have AT in his shoes there though, would probably have to go broke as mentioned in the earlier hand.

Back to reality though. After the turn brings in one of the straights (the most nutted one) it's a pretty gross spot. If we bet and get raised, I agree we cant fold and may as well get it in incase V has any two pair hands or for when we boat up and the action dies. I don't hate checking behind to induce more marginal hands to bluff river and catch the rest of the J9, 97, slower played two pair hands, and whatever other bluffs V may have that didn't blast off flop. We still only have a slight overbet left of 78.2 BB and a 64 BB pot so I don't think we lose a ton of value as we can call down induced river bets and jam over top when the board pairs or bet ourselves if it V checks twice.