$25 NL HE Full Ring: 30NL 4bet pot with marginal holding

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Game
Hold'em
Game Format
No Limit
Stakes
$.10/$.25
Table Format
Full (8-10 seats)
VP$IP
15
PFR
12
AF
3
Currency
$
Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 15/12/3
UTG: $30.00 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $45.16 (151 bb)
MP: $33.54 (112 bb)
MP+1: $27.18 (91 bb)
LP: $23.07 (77 bb)
CO: $11.70 (39 bb)
BU: $35.93 (120 bb)
SB (Hero): $32.56 (109 bb)

BB: $18.18 (61 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.45) Hero is SB with A J
5 players fold, CO calls $0.30, BTN raises to $1.20, Hero 3-bets to $4.20, 2 players fold, BTN 4-bets to $8.40, Hero calls $4.20

Limper was very fishy so I expected the button's raise to be fairly wide, albeit villain was a TAG reg. Seemed like a reasonable spot to 3bet, I went a bit less than 4x given its a big open. I wasn't expecting a 4bet! though with such a small sizing it seems that we have to call - its probably a call v 2.2x or 2.4x as well in this configuration, though not loving the spot.

Flop: ($17.40) 5 9 A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.94, Hero calls $3.94

Seems like call is the only play, though well aware I could be crushed by AK or even AQ that made a light 4bet.

Turn: ($25.28) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

An ok turn as it is less likely he has AK, but on the other hand we now lose to KK, which would probably play this way. Glad he checks back!

River: ($25.28) 8 (2 players)

Is this a value bet now? I am putting him on alot of QQ after the turn check back, but with an SPR of less than 1 (I have about $20 left) I think many villains might get trappy with AK or KK knowing they can get all the money in on the river. It seems if I raise any amount I'm going to be put in a horrible spot if villain jams. Though I'm in a bad spot if I check and he jams too? In the end I checked but maybe I should be betting say $5 to get a crying call from QQ, though it might fold anyway and possibly limit losses to AQ. If I bet small it will be tough to fold to a jam, but maybe I need to call off top pair anyway. The 5 on the flop is a pain too as I lose to the logical A5s bluff preflop though I could still be ahead of an ATs bluff.

So did I miss a value bet by checking? and should I call a shove or smaller bet by villain?
 
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gustav197poker

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Here it is better to fold pre in my opinion. You have double gap where value hands that fit perfectly in 4bet could leak into the V range: QQ and KK. On the flop and in hindsight, if for some reason I eliminated AQ+ on V, I'm now raising the flop all the time, waiting for them to call me "worse aces". Here you are only behind A5 and A9, that is, a very small portion of V range.
BU's bet was quite small, which polarizes his range a bit since V isn't expecting you fold much in that texture. That could mean that V has a dominated hand or, on the contrary, he has a disguised monster.
As played the turn favors your range since now QQ is clearly dominated and decreases the possibility of you facing KK (only 3 combos, although still possible in fact, in 4-bet pre).
Calling is fine here since you don't need to protect, because the relevant flush draws in V are few combos, maybe 3/4 KQ; KJ; KT at most.
River seems opportune to make a small bet, like 1/4 pot, trying to get KJ to beat QQ who decided to call on the flop, but really there is very little margin to get additional value in the hand.
Greetings.
 
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Here it is better to fold pre in my opinion. You have double gap where value hands that fit perfectly in 4bet could leak into the V range: QQ and KK. On the flop and in hindsight, if for some reason I eliminated AQ+ on V, I'm now raising the flop all the time, waiting for them to call me "worse aces". Here you are only behind A5 and A9, that is, a very small portion of V range.
BU's bet was quite small, which polarizes his range a bit since V isn't expecting you fold much in that texture. That could mean that V has a dominated hand or, on the contrary, he has a disguised monster.
As played the turn favors your range since now QQ is clearly dominated and decreases the possibility of you facing KK (only 3 combos, although still possible in fact, in 4-bet pre).
Calling is fine here since you don't need to protect, because the relevant flush draws in V are few combos, maybe 3/4 KQ; KJ; KT at most.
River seems opportune to make a small bet, like 1/4 pot, trying to get KJ to beat QQ who decided to call on the flop, but really there is very little margin to get additional value in the hand.
Greetings.
I think we have to call pre, only need to realise 25% equity which we should do v KK and QQ and most other hands except AA.

The more I think about it I like a small river bet but the lack of stack depth is a problem. E.g. I bet 20% pot I.e. $5 it's only $15 more to call if he shoves. Would I have the discipline to fold? Hopefully as I dont think villain would ever be bluffing, I think the small bets gets vale from worse Aces maybe QQ or Kx and limits losses v AQ. So with hindsight I think that's the best play.

As it turns out villain had KQo! The exact hand that may have paid. I wasnt expecting him to be that wide! (Also why we cant fold pre!), he just checked it back of course.
 
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gustav197poker

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I think we have to call pre, only need to realise 25% equity which we should do v KK and QQ and most other hands except AA.

The more I think about it I like a small river bet but the lack of stack depth is a problem. E.g. I bet 20% pot I.e. $5 it's only $15 more to call if he shoves. Would I have the discipline to fold? Hopefully as I dont think villain would ever be bluffing, I think the small bets gets vale from worse Aces maybe QQ or Kx and limits losses v AQ. So with hindsight I think that's the best play.

As it turns out villain had KQo! The exact hand that may have paid. I wasnt expecting him to be that wide! (Also why we cant fold pre!), he just checked it back of course.
If you call preflop the pot is 18.75 USD and you must complete with 4.2 USD. You need 22% equity for this. Considering the rake you might need a little more than that, but to be generous we round down and say we need 20% to break even.
Now if we give 16 KQ combos to V range + 15 value combos (AA, KK and QQ) + 3 combos: ATs, who 4-bet preflop, we beat 19 combos out of 34. That's about 60%. To balance we must assume that V plays this way 33% of the time. Which is equal to 0.33 × 0.6 = 19.8%. So we are very close to equilibrium, so if you decide to call preflop it is an acceptable option as well.
 
loafaBREAD

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Yea, I agree we can contemplate a fold versus some Vs, as obviously this will be tough to play oop. Against agressive Vs we have to defend.

A tiny river lead is in order. You'd do this with 99 as well. Bluffs could be TT, QJdd. 99 calls the raise if V is trapping with AK.

Just my thinking! Ranges are so narrow that yea, you could get V to fold KQ vs a tiny bet. I think we can take advantage of that tendency overall.
(@ 25nl, v is not checking KK OTT though. I wouldn't either!).
 
John A

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I'd 3-bet smaller pre-flop, as your primary goal is to ISO either the fish or the ref who is ISOing w/ a weaker range IP correct? We're really not looking for folds per say.

As played, all looks fine, and I think 1/4 value block bet on the river is solid. You can make an exploitable fold vs a shove at these stakes (or most stakes really) because they know you're getting sick odds to call, so their bluffing range is going to be small.
 
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I'd 3-bet smaller pre-flop, as your primary goal is to ISO either the fish or the ref who is ISOing w/ a weaker range IP correct? We're really not looking for folds per say.

As played, all looks fine, and I think 1/4 value block bet on the river is solid. You can make an exploitable fold vs a shove at these stakes (or most stakes really) because they know you're getting sick odds to call, so their bluffing range is going to be small.

I'm pretty happy to get a fold pre! AJs is a good hand but out of position it's going to be tough if we miss the flop. I would usually make it more like 4x but given it's a big 4x open I just raised to 3.5x.

I think you are right that a small river blocker bet is in order. I was too worried about AQ in game and turning my hand face up, but I suspect AQ just calls anyway and few regs are turning QQ into a bluff and ripping it in.
 
Aballinamion

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Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 15/12/3
UTG: $30.00 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $45.16 (151 bb)
MP: $33.54 (112 bb)
MP+1: $27.18 (91 bb)
LP: $23.07 (77 bb)
CO: $11.70 (39 bb)
BU: $35.93 (120 bb)
SB (Hero): $32.56 (109 bb)

BB: $18.18 (61 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.45) Hero is SB with A J
5 players fold, CO calls $0.30, BTN raises to $1.20, Hero 3-bets to $4.20, 2 players fold, BTN 4-bets to $8.40, Hero calls $4.20

Limper was very fishy so I expected the button's raise to be fairly wide, albeit villain was a TAG reg. Seemed like a reasonable spot to 3bet, I went a bit less than 4x given its a big open. I wasn't expecting a 4bet! though with such a small sizing it seems that we have to call - its probably a call v 2.2x or 2.4x as well in this configuration, though not loving the spot.

Flop: ($17.40) 5 9 A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.94, Hero calls $3.94

Seems like call is the only play, though well aware I could be crushed by AK or even AQ that made a light 4bet.

Turn: ($25.28) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

An ok turn as it is less likely he has AK, but on the other hand we now lose to KK, which would probably play this way. Glad he checks back!

River: ($25.28) 8 (2 players)

Is this a value bet now? I am putting him on alot of QQ after the turn check back, but with an SPR of less than 1 (I have about $20 left) I think many villains might get trappy with AK or KK knowing they can get all the money in on the river. It seems if I raise any amount I'm going to be put in a horrible spot if villain jams. Though I'm in a bad spot if I check and he jams too? In the end I checked but maybe I should be betting say $5 to get a crying call from QQ, though it might fold anyway and possibly limit losses to AQ. If I bet small it will be tough to fold to a jam, but maybe I need to call off top pair anyway. The 5 on the flop is a pain too as I lose to the logical A5s bluff preflop though I could still be ahead of an ATs bluff.

So did I miss a value bet by checking? and should I call a shove or smaller bet by villain?
I rather be 4-betting AJs, AQs, than calling.
Also I like to 4-bet players that I have known they understand what a 4-bet means.
Be honest with yourself: when you did not accelerated the pot preflop with such hands as AJ, AQ, AK or TT+?
Most of players never flat with these hands preflop. Be honest with yourself, when you call a 4-bet owning AJ or AQ there’s a great chance you’re dominated, so why bother calling it?
 
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I rather be 4-betting AJs, AQs, than calling.
Also I like to 4-bet players that I have known they understand what a 4-bet means.
Be honest with yourself: when you did not accelerated the pot preflop with such hands as AJ, AQ, AK or TT+?
Most of players never flat with these hands preflop. Be honest with yourself, when you call a 4-bet owning AJ or AQ there’s a great chance you’re dominated, so why bother calling it?

Yes I would rather not be in the spot of calling the 4bet or fold, but that's what happened. I think call is slightly better than fold as I only need to realise 25% equity, wont be easy, but AJs will have 30% against value except AA and potentially be ahead of bluffs, either the A will be live v KK,QQ etc or the J against AK, AQ, plus there are flush draw outs.

Also it's late configuration so we need to defend some non premium hands.
 
Aballinamion

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We only have to be more profitable. Forget about results, but if you follow some theory that states that we should defend our range in hypothetical scenario, I will disagree.
You have VPIP, PFR and AF for how much hands played versus villain?
I am totally on board of calling 4-bet pots with A2s-A5s, even with ATS+, if I have a lot of information about my opponent that can make me create some exploitative play postflop that will lead to a river shove many times, because I know my opponent is able to fold.
We need to be profitable, not defend x or y because we have to do it! We have to be smart and avoid spots where we don’t know V’s range, playability, strategy but we must defend this late configuration, not make the best move in the long run.
 
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