25 NL AQ, flop TPTK

[Schatzdog]

Not sure what to make of this really. I don't have much of a read as adino is new to the table.

PokerStars Game #8927723858: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/03/16 - 09:06:40 (ET)
Table 'Venusia II' 9-max
Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: mudman388 ($2.25 in chips)
Seat 2: dashlegal ($24.55 in chips)
Seat 3: vsw4545 ($63.15 in chips)
Seat 4: ShawnIndy ($23.95 in chips)
Seat 5: padavan33 ($23.55 in chips)
Seat 6: karljav1 ($28.60 in chips)
Seat 7: AllinONkk ($31.05 in chips)
Seat 8: adiño ($14.30 in chips)
Seat 9: Bluetones ($20.10 in chips)
mudman388: posts small blind $0.10
dashlegal: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Bluetones [As Qc]
vsw4545: folds
ShawnIndy: folds
padavan33: folds
karljav1: folds
AllinONkk: calls $0.25
adiño: raises $0.50 to $0.75
Bluetones: calls $0.75
mudman388: folds
dashlegal: folds
AllinONkk: calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [3h 9d Qs]
AllinONkk: checks
adiño: bets $1
Bluetones: raises $2.50 to $3.50
AllinONkk: folds
adiño: calls $2.50
*** TURN *** [3h 9d Qs] [7c]
adiño: bets $4
Bluetones: ?

Thoughts and comments please. I'm a bit lost on this one and want to know why.

 

[jayneseo]

I would say you should have raised a little more preflop, but my instinct says he has a set of nines.

 

[joosebuck]

10J could do this too, though, if he's LAG

 

[Pokerstud225]

i agree with both joose and jayne, both are possible and both hands happen very often, could also have two pair, not a very big raise preflop to push him out so he could call with a Q 9 or Q 7 and catch something on the turn or outflop you

 

[TheRifle]

I have a sneaking feeling for KQ. Did you call?

 

[Bombjack]

Call > Raise > Fold

There's a reasonable chance you're ahead, although he's called a flop raise so he has at least a pair of Queens. You're hoping he has a lower kicker.

Raising to $10 isn't too terrible because versus an overpair you're then unlikely to face a river bet, and facing a push you have an easy laydown, and maybe if he's tight you'll get him to lay down an overpair (but unlikely at $25 NL) or another AQ. Regard it as a "blocking raise". If he's behind, and your opponent is loose, you get extra value. Your opponent also needs to be a reasonable player who won't push with AQ.

Calling is better though, because you show down for probably a similar price to raising, and this is a hand you want to show down cheaply, holding just top pair. The trouble with calling is that you're telling your opponent you've just got a pair of Queens, and if you're behind you'll face a substantial value bet on the river. If your opponent knows you're a good player and could fold TPTK to a river bet, he may bet anyway as a bluff.

If you just call and your opponent checks the river, it's less likely he has an overpair or a set, and I like a small value bet that will get a call from KQ/QJ.

 

[Schatzdog]

Interesting analysis. I'd say that calling is probably the best option. Controlling the pot size here and getting to a cheap showdown is the way to go.

In the actual hand, due to maybe a bit of fatigue or whatever, I folded out. Also, I don't put too much faith in TPTK and always feel a bit dumb stacking off with just a pair. In hindsight this is probably a bit weak. My initial thoughts were overpair, but looking back surely an overpair would've re-raised the flop here. I think KQ/99 is a more likely holding for villain.

Does this qualify as a Way Ahead/Way Behind situation? In which case calling down is the way to go.

 

[Bombjack]

The way you play this hand should also be influenced heavily by how loose or tight this opponent is, especially how often he's raising pre-flop. Would he raise pre-flop with KQ or QJ (suited)? Because they're the only hands that you're realistically ahead of. But for such a small bet (half pot) on the Turn, I'm probably not laying down TPTK just yet.

 

[Schatzdog]

I hear you.

This is the first pot that I've played with villain and I think only the 2nd he's played. Like I said, he was pretty new to the table and only bought in for $15 so my read is nil.

If I thought he was LAGy or a bit weak I'd have kept going in the hand for sure.

 

[F Paulsson]

Why is 99 a more likely hand than, say, KK?

 

[Schatzdog]

Why is 99 a more likely hand than, say, KK?

Good question. I'd think 99's would be more comfortable calling my flop re-raise, whereas KK would likely re-raise again. That's just my thinking though.

 

[Four Dogs]

That 3 x bb pf raise was too weak for vulnerable pairs like 99 or QQ. The cut-off could have been raising with almost anything. A re-raise would have made your decision alot easier, but we are where we are. His $1.00 bet is light and could be just a continuation. If he had a made hand he should have bet more to protect it. Your re-raise was light as well. It only costs him $2.50 to see a $6.00 pot. Any draw was getting the correct odds to call. He bet right out on the turn, so either he was holding TJ and he made his straight or he already had a strong hand, either way your TPTK is not strong enough to re-raise with. Call or fold. I'm leaning toward the latter.