200nlhe hard river choice.

joosebuck

joosebuck

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villian has been pretty aggro, but i'm not sure if any non king will fire a 3rd bullet hoping to get me to fold. not to say 55 is possible too. my first thought was JT or some other sort of combo-ish draw.

pokerstars Game #11631862446: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2007/08/22 - 15:38:08 (ET)
Table 'Alrisha' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Storm338 ($198 in chips)
Seat 2: treysfull21 ($351.65 in chips)
Seat 3: iceoholic ($445.75 in chips)
Seat 4: TakinUr_$$$x ($242.30 in chips)
Seat 5: Dilith ($222.35 in chips)
Seat 6: gatebuster ($89.60 in chips)
Seat 7: CARPOS81 ($25.95 in chips)
Seat 8: DrBallgame42 ($202 in chips)
Seat 9: joosebucklol ($261.25 in chips)
joosebucklol: posts small blind $1
Storm338: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to joosebucklol [Ah Ad]
treysfull21: folds
iceoholic: folds
TakinUr_$$$x: calls $2
Dilith: folds
gatebuster: folds
CARPOS81: folds
DrBallgame42: folds
joosebucklol: raises $6 to $8
Storm338: calls $6
TakinUr_$$$x: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [5d Kh Qd]
joosebucklol: checks
Storm338: checks
TakinUr_$$$x: bets $15
joosebucklol: calls $15
Storm338: folds
*** TURN *** [5d Kh Qd] [Kc]
joosebucklol: checks
TakinUr_$$$x: bets $29
joosebucklol: calls $29
*** RIVER *** [5d Kh Qd Kc] [3h]
joosebucklol: checks
TakinUr_$$$x: bets $60
 
tenbob

tenbob

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Looks more valueish to me here. Hes betting into 2 other players on the flop, unless he has done this before then youve gotta give him credit to at least a K, KQ and 55 are also very possible here.

You seem to have gone into call more very quickly here, why no flop 3-bet ? (I already know, but meh)

I think folding in this spot is pretty standard, all you beating is a missed flush draw or some idiot with QJ.
 
joosebuck

joosebuck

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i said he's been pretty aggro. what about JT that missed? or two diamonds? i didnt want to 3bet because i didnt want to give money to KQ or fold to a combo draw that shoves that flop. i kinda wanted to control the pot and see a showdown there. not to mention AQ/QJ/JJ/TT/99 that can bet this.
 
tenbob

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Got your PT Stats on him ? Has he cold called you like this PF before ?
 
joosebuck

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18/6/4; no he hasn't - at least with a premium hand.
 
Emperor IX

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There aren't many times I'd drop Aces, but this may be one of them. Since he plays so tight just wait for a better spot. Shouldn't be TOO too hard.
 
joosebuck

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18vpip isnt -that- tight. just fyi i raise almost every button and am 17 over 33k hands. (in my latest database)
 
ChuckTs

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Why are we CC'ing this flop? Sure, villain is aggro postflop, but that's a terrible flop to get passive with imo.

As played, I'm really not sure whether a smaller pair/busted draw will make this play more often than a K. I guess it would depend on my experience with him and how I felt during the hand.

I definitely do see like JTd/AJd making this play. <JJ and Qx, not so much.
 
P

pokerdude836

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Repop him all in just to see where you are at.
 
joosebuck

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repopping is probably the worst thing we can do. 55 wont fold, most any king wont fold. JJ/Qx/busted draws wont call.
 
A

alan1983

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joose theres something about poker and some advanced moves that i dont get.

In the 400nl hand that tufat posted, he said he checked flop cause hell only get called by hands that beat him.

Why dyou check this flop? To get weaker hands to bet?

When you decide to get into check calling mode, specially with someone whos closing the action, then shouldnt you be committing yourself to the end of the hand?

If its to induce betting from weaker hands, then isnt this an insta call everytime?

If were gonan check to induce bets, then try 2 read in bet amounts, im thinking it goes against the point of checking in 1st place?

For what its worth i do think a queen does this.
 
joosebuck

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i checked because a) if he had a draw he was betting it anyway & i can control the pot at least a little bit b) to get him to bet JJ/TT/99 (and some others) on top of a Q or K c) the off chance he limp/called QK, i dont lose that much.

the K on the turn pretty much sinks me calling any bet. what worried me is that even a lot of maniacs will slow down on the river. the 3rd barrel made me think he might actually have a king. does a very aggro villain make this play enough with busted draws & other hands we beat for us to have it as a +EV call?
 
joosebuck

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Why are we CC'ing this flop? Sure, villain is aggro postflop, but that's a terrible flop to get passive with imo.

As played, I'm really not sure whether a smaller pair/busted draw will make this play more often than a K. I guess it would depend on my experience with him and how I felt during the hand.

I definitely do see like JTd/AJd making this play. <JJ and Qx, not so much.


if he has a combo draw we're coinflipping and getting all in on that flop anyway, but if he is betting that with 2 diamonds he's giving himself incorrect odds, so keeping him making that move with momentum i think is a good thing. plus if he has AK/KJ/Qx he prolly wont slow down now, anyway. with KQ i'm saving money. felt like the most +ev move to me.
 
P

pokerdude836

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Just as many aces as there are kings. All you need is to get it on the river. Gamble a little bit, he probably has crap.
 
tenbob

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I dunno about calling here the more i think about it. I got involved in a nl$100 hand earlier on a KKQxx board vs AA and i played it mostly the same as your villian did here. (I had KQ) and my river bet was around pot sized and i didnt have a clue what he was calling with.

He's loose(ish) his limp-call pre-flop should shout out small pair, or a monster, esp if your raising you button lots. The board is as bad as you get for AA. I still think that calling a $60 bet here is bad, if he bet in the $40 range then i likely call, i just think that his betting pattern is a little strong to be 3barrelling a missed draw. If you call i expect to see the goods more often that not. Can he do this with a busted draw 33% of the time, dunno, i think its unlikely, I simply think his river bet is that little big too big to call.

Heh, sorry about the waffle.
 
skoldpadda

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I hate it, but I think you have to fold. Then again, I suck at hold em. I can see AQ in his range. But 55 and Kx are also in his range. The possibility of a lower pair betting seems unlikely to me. There's just so much in his range that has you beat.
 
oddhand

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IMHO you lost this hand the minute you checked and then only called even if the villian didn't have a K or 55 I would have come out betting hard and if raised folding fast especially against an aggressive player .
Anything less than a K or 55 and he folds and if he raises then you know he has you beat.
If he just calls then you see the K on the river and then check fold .
That's my HO for what it's worth .
BTW I'm putting him on KK .
 
joosebuck

joosebuck

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you think he limp calls from mp with KK? haha, wow. especially an aggressive player at that.

anyway, i called and he showed J9d.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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Surprised, but nice call. Like I said, I suck at hold em.
 
Emperor IX

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you think he limp calls from mp with KK? haha, wow. especially an aggressive player at that.

anyway, i called and he showed J9d.

I need to start playing 200max. lol. Good call, I'm too much of a wimp, naturally.
 
J

joeeagles

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I missed posting on this hand before results, so I'll try not be results oriented.

I don't play 200nl, but is it really unconventional for an aggro to 3 barrel a busted combo draw vs a player who has played this hand passively? He fired on the flop and again on the turn, and both times Joose c/c. I think the whole point of betting this river is to get hands like JJ/TT/AQ/medium pairs to fold (those hands are all possible since Joose raised PF, and they will call the flop and likely even the turn bets), and the rate of success in getting those hands to fold would be pretty high.

From the comments here it seems that villain played this perfectly, because most would have folded (and I think I would of too). I agree with TB that his river bet looks valueish, he sized it so good that most would get fooled (including me). The point I'm trying to make is that 3barrel bluffs are very powerful plays that many times get the best hand to fold.

Good call, well played. I have to admit well played from villain too.
 
joosebuck

joosebuck

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ya it was my toughest call of the day by far. by betting the flop or c/ring i dont think we get the same result from him at all. i really did play that like JJ/TT/99 or maybe AQ.
 
J

joeeagles

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by betting the flop or c/ring i dont think we get the same result from him at all. i really did play that like JJ/TT/99 or maybe AQ.

No question about it. You get the flop and turn bets because he has a combo draw, but lose the $60 on the river. Playing it like this allowed you to get the max.
 
B

bigjoker66

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i checked because a) if he had a draw he was betting it anyway & i can control the pot at least a little bit b) to get him to bet JJ/TT/99 (and some others) on top of a Q or K c) the off chance he limp/called QK, i dont lose that much.

the K on the turn pretty much sinks me calling any bet? what worried me is that even a lot of maniacs will slow down on the river. the 3rd barrel made me think he might actually have a king. does a very aggro villain make this play enough with busted draws & other hands we beat for us to have it as a +EV call?

When you reason like this how can you call a river bet. You were trying to control pot size and it got away from you. You said the 2nd K killed you calling.

As played I don't see why you changed your mind on the river (or was it the turn?)

You really need to bet this flop to see where you are at. You gave up aggression to an aggressive player.

What did you expect to happen when you checked the flop?
 
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