[200nl FR] Overpair on Drawy Flop Gets Action

[zachvac]

Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

BB: $90 (45 bb)
UTG+1: $225 (112.5 bb)
UTG+2: $43 (21.5 bb)
MP1: $92.40 (46.2 bb)
MP2: $42.50 (21.3 bb)
MP3: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $263.10 (131.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $242.80 (121.4 bb)
SB: $200 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with K

K

4 folds, MP3 calls $2, CO folds, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, MP3 calls $6

Flop: ($19) 5

9

8

(2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $14, MP3 raises to $38

ok villain is a 33/15/2.7 over only 33 hands and no history.

Hands I know he's doing it with: sets/2-pairs/combo draws
Hands I think there's a good chance he's doing it with: some air, naked flush draw, 9x

Obviously if we jam we fold out all the worse hands and get calls from the combo draws and the monsters. If he were passive I'd snapfold but with a 2.7 AF and limping that much he's definitely capable of doing this with air and this is a great flop to do it because it kind of smashes his range and he knows a lot of our hands are 1-pair hands like this one or draws. Obviously the fact that this smacks his range also works as a negative, but basically his range is far ahead of my range on this board although I have near the top of my range.

Anyway:

1. Fold or stack?
2. If stack, is a shove good here or would you just raise to less?

edit: sorry, can a mod ad [200nl FR] to title?

 

[pedroman7]

I think if he limp/call oop with a pfr of 15 he almost has to have suited connectors (maybe?, only 33 hands hard to say for sure). You would think A9 or most pairs they wouldn't open limp. I think that leaves a range of hands that hits that flop pretty hard. Two pair, pair and a sd, pair and fd, sd and fd, ect. He may have air or possible J9 or 9T but I would get him more credit than that without history. So I say fold putting him on a made hand or big draw.

 

[c9h13no3]

I put about every draw known to man in his range. I also included 99, which he's probably raising but whatever.

Board: 5s 9s 8h
Hand 0: 48.399% { 99-88, 55, A9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As4s, As3s, As2s, K9s, Qs8s, JTs, Js8s, Js7s, Ts8s, T7s, 98s, 96s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 76s, 6s4s, A9o, JTo, 98o }
Hand 1: 51.601% { KdKs }

Notice that a brick on the turn doesn't change much...

Board: 5s 9s 8h 2c
Hand 0: 41.730% { 99-88, 55, A9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As4s, As3s, As2s, K9s, Qs8s, JTs, Js8s, Js7s, Ts8s, T7s, 98s, 96s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 76s, 6s4s, A9o, JTo, 98o }
Hand 1: 58.270% { KdKs }


I don't think folding is a big mistake here. He's probably got less draws in his range too for what its worth, so folding's probably best. But I enjoy variance so I probably just ship it in.

 

[vanquish]

if by "stack" you mean "stack" our opponent, then yes, we would enjoy stacking him. you can 4bet a committing amount or just jam, i really don't see flatting here as an option.

 

[zachvac]

if by "stack" you mean "stack" our opponent, then yes, we would enjoy stacking him. you can 4bet a committing amount or just jam, i really don't see flatting here as an option.

By stack I mean ship all money into the pot. I agree flatting isn't really an option, but what about folding?

 

[vanquish]

By stack I mean ship all money into the pot. I agree flatting isn't really an option, but what about folding?

that's called stacking off.

like you would say "i'm gonna stack any trips here with my fullhouse." this means if ur opponent has trips, you get to stack him.

alternatively you could say

"i'm gonna stack off with trips here because my opponent might have a flush draw and i can stack him"

folding sux btw and u have a backdoor:icon_sant

 

[blankoblanco]

i think air is a reeeally tiny portion of his range, and 9x is prob pretty small unless he has exactly A9. i've rarely seen these guys show up with T9 or K9 or whatever even though they're clearly not good based on stats

on the other hand, 15 pfr is enough to where there's a good chance he's opening 88 and 99 though its hard to say. he could also have 67 which you didn't mention

i think it's really close. if his pfr was something like 5-6%, to the point where i think 88 and 99 are a much bigger part of his limpcalling range, then i might lean toward a fold. as it is, i think he'll have a combo draw or pair + FD so much and like A9 sometimes to the point where you can get it in. pretty marginal spot either way

 

[BelgoSuisse]

pretty marginal spot either way

+1. you're gonna be coinflipping with most of his range here, and there's little money in the pot so far, so i don't think there's really much of a difference in EV whether you shove or fold. I probably shove 'cos it's more fun, get called and then curse when a spade hits turn or river.

Also, I don't do big folds.

 

[zachvac]

+1. you're gonna be coinflipping with most of his range here, and there's little money in the pot so far, so i don't think there's really much of a difference in EV whether you shove or fold. I probably shove 'cos it's more fun, get called and then curse when a spade hits turn or river.

results

Honestly the biggest reason I shoved was because of the combo draws that were not 50/50. For example in this spot he had A8s but he probably also shoves with T8/J8s and then instead of coin flip I would be a bit ahead and I figure that evens out for the times he has sets. Just wanted to make sure my logic was ok here.

 

[c9h13no3]

For example in this spot he had A8s but he probably also shoves with T8/J8s and then instead of coin flip I would be a bit ahead

Remind me what the difference is between As8s and Js8s in this spot? Cuz 2% doesn't seem to weaken his range enough to make shoving best. Wouldn't we need weaker draws like J♣ 10♦ to be in his range, in order to offset the huge equity that sets/two pair have against us? Or is his range so ridiculously full of draws since he raises 88/99 that we're against a combodraw 95% of the time, and we need to just eat the variance and flip with him. And if he always has a combodraw, what's the EV of calling, and shoving any turn that isn't a 7, 8, A, or spade? It just seems like jamming the flop, we can't get him to make a mistake. He'll call with all his draws, and we'll just enjoy some variance.


Js 8s 46.8%
or
As 8s 49.3%

 

[zachvac]

meh idk I didn't do the math at the table guess I thought it'd be worse if he didn't have the over as well. The bigger edge would be if he had like 2 overs and a flush draw but the overs were under a K. Then he'd basically just have a naked flush draw but stack off. I do agree he only stacks off with odds here and never folds worse, that's the main reason I posted this, because even after this I'm still not sure whether this should be a shove or a fold in general. If he's not raising naked flush draws here (obviously with intent to fold, but winning money in the pot already makes up for times he has sets/straights) we can fold but I'm not sure how often he does or else raises with pure air.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

after this I'm still not sure whether this should be a shove or a fold in general. If he's not raising naked flush draws here

there are more or less no naked flush draws possible. Ax hands have an over and connectors/one gapers kind of all connect to this board.

 

[Chris_TC]

Why does everybody debate shoving or folding? Calling and shoving blank turns over his bet is best imo.

 

[c9h13no3]

Why does everybody debate shoving or folding? Calling and shoving blank turns over his bet is best imo.

2 reasons I think that's tricky (although it may very well be the best line):

1) There are so many non-blanks in the deck. Any spade, ace, 7, or 8 potentially makes his hand, and any or 6, T, 9 could be bad cards as well. We really have the potential to put money in drawing dead silm on the turn, when we could've easily put it in on the flop flipping. Additionally, we may make a fold incorrectly if say, villain has As9x and he shoves when a spade rolls off the deck. And that'd be a pretty giant mistake.

2) Even if we shove over his turn bet, he's still likely getting pot odds to call with whatever draws he has.

Lemme do the math just to check:

If we call, potsize on turn = $95, villain has $154 behind. He bets $70 on the turn, with $84 behind, and we shove, he has to call $84 into $319 or 3.8:1. So yeah, he's a million percent committed.

I guess his original bet on the turn would be a mistake, and it would cause him to put $154 into the pot with usually a 30% draw.

So on the flop, jamming can never be a mistake. We're pretty much always going to have equity against his range to make it okay. Jamming on the turn can possibly be a more +EV play, but if we read his hand incorrectly based on the turn card, we have a big risk of putting $ in really bad.

But now that I think about it, I suppose shoving any non-(spade, ace, 7, or 8) turn might be best best. But that's like 19 cards in the deck out of however many though, I think its going to put us into a tough spot big time. And if there's pure air or bad draws in this guy's range, then we may be better off just shoving the flop.

Argh, these spots are no fun.

 

[Chris_TC]

Additionally, we may make a fold incorrectly if say, villain has As9x and he shoves when a spade rolls off the deck. And that'd be a pretty giant mistake.

It would be a mistake against this specific hand, but is it a mistake against his range? He would have to be super aggro and bluffy to make folding a spade turn a giant mistake.

If we call, potsize on turn = $95, villain has $154 behind. He bets $70 on the turn, with $84 behind, and we shove, he has to call $84 into $319 or 3.8:1. So yeah, he's a million percent committed.

I'd say at this point we don't mind getting it in because there's only one card to come instead of two.

Jamming on the turn can possibly be a more +EV play, but if we read his hand incorrectly based on the turn card, we have a big risk of putting $ in really bad.

We're less likely to get it in bad on the turn than on the flop. Even his semi-bluffs have a ton of equity against us on the flop. On the turn, this is not the case. If the turn blanks and we still stack off badly, then we would have stacked off badly on the flop as well.

This leaves the scenario of him bluffing us off our hand by repping a scare card. I'm not too worried about this because most of his range consists of very big draws and made hands. If we fold the best hand every once in a while then so be it.
Also, if he's bluffing and follows through on a blank, we win an extra bet. That alone should make the proposed line more +EV against a bluff than shoving the flop.

 

[c9h13no3]

I'd say at this point we don't mind getting it in because there's only one card to come instead of two.

Well, that's the point really. We're not getting him to stack off without odds.

Also, if he's bluffing and follows through on a blank, we win an extra bet. That alone should make the proposed line more +EV against a bluff than shoving the flop.

Yeah, I think that pretty much seals it. If there is air in his range, or weak draws, we do get another bet out of them, which is pretty big.

 

[Jagsti]

Why does everybody debate shoving or folding? Calling and shoving blank turns over his bet is best imo.

I was thinking exactly the same tbh.

 

[c9h13no3]

It would be a mistake against this specific hand, but is it a mistake against his range?

Oh, and one other point I wanted to make was that our opponent can rep a wider range of nut hands here. So our opponent can exploit us by jamming spades on the turn with a range higher than just flushes. I'd be check/raise bluffing this flop pretty wide against a TAG like Zach, because I can get him to make a mistake by thinking my range is just combodraws & sets on this flop, when really I prolly have a ton of air & straight draws in my range.

So yeah, we can make a mistake against his range if a spade comes, if his range isn't super loaded with spade draws. But I doubt this particular opponent is that good that'd he be balancing his range.

 

[Chris_TC]

Well, that's the point really. We're not getting him to stack off without odds.

He's only getting odds if he commits himself. And then he's already made the mistake we want him to make.
To use your example, he bets $70 into $95 and gets 3.8:1 if he calls our shove. But from our point of view what really happens is this: He stacks off for $154 to win our $154+$94. This is 1.6:1, and he's drawing a lot slimmer than 1.6:1.