This is a discussion on £200 NLHE Full Ring: river decision after calling donk flop bet on a paired board multiway within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Live £1/1, friendly weekend recreational player heavy game
UTG: £200 stack - old man, quite new to the table, no particular read
BTN (Hero) £300 stack
Your blocking a big chunk of the flush draws with the Ad but those should bet the turn most of the time anyway.And id expect Jx or a nutted type hand to bet the turn so i kind of rule those out. And id also expect a strong hand to use a larger sizing than this on the river.So my guess is Kx like a KQ KJ and for hands that beat us possibly a weirdly played QTo or something.I dont thnk id raise here for value i think its a clear river call but i also think once checked to the turn it's a clear value bet for AK there.
1) Its a pretty strange line by UTG, and since I would never play like this, I honestly dont know, what the thought process is for someone, who does. If I somehow limped UTG and then called a raise and found myself in this bloated 5-way pot, I can see some merit is putting out a small donk bet with JX to get value from KX and gutshots and not allow it to get checked through. But then why check the turn? If he is ever bluffing, I guess QT could make sense, and then he was trying to trap you, when he got there on the turn.
2) As Fvendal say, you block the nut flush, you are getting a good price, and his hand makes no sense. So I am pretty much never folding here, but I am certainly not raising either. I really dont understand, what this small raise is for? Are you trying to get him to fold trips, when he need to pay 25 to win a pot of 165? Or are you trying to get value from hands like KQ? Either way that raise is a pretty big mistake in my opinion.
I think this line is a hand holding a J most of the time. Villain donk bets the flop to try to get some value, then checks the turn hoping you bet. Its a weird line for sure, but that's my take. I would call the river bet.
Yes villain had JTo at this spot. Turn check was probably scared of QT to keep the pot small.
Agree river raise (merged range) is not necessary as villain unlikely donk bet weak K this flop multiway
Not surpriced he had something like this, and apart from preflop his line makes sense. Kind of difficult to get 3 streets of value with his hand multiway, and its not just because of the turned straight. He also lose to KK, AJ, KJ, QJs and J9s, hands that you can absolutely have as the preflop raiser.
re: Poker & £200 NLHE Full Ring: river decision after calling donk flop bet on a paired board multiway
Considering the characteristics you mention of the utg player
His bet on the flop was about 40% of the pot and he could have bet for value, forming a double pair with K-10; K-Q; K-9; K-8; K-7, in which case the call is a standard move after the UTG bet.
Eventually we could assign UTG a J in its range, and in that case, we would justify its check on the turn as a protection of its range. But I see this as unlikely, since a recreational player will want to get all the possible value at hand, and at the same time block the color project that opens for the opponent on the turn.
It could be that UTG bets on the flop for its odds (Q-10) then wants to strengthen its range on the turn. And finally on the river, the same size (approximately 40% of the well) is bet again to induce bluffs on the part of the button.
In this case there is the remote possibility of placing a 9-9 pocket in its range, which sought an improvement that finally got on the turn. (very improbable)
Anyway, I am inclined to think that utg bets on value in the flop, and its clean preflop makes more sense with speculative hands of type: K-7 +
Also a repetitive bet (the same size flop and river) on a board of this texture represents more speculation than strength.
What would you do in the river?
For all that I said I would make a raise at 2.5x to try to catch its mid and low combos.
At the same time I am giving myself the opportunity to represent a strong rank and to make them abandon combinations that did not prosper in the river.