$20 NLHE Full Ring: Fold KK pre?

[hackmeplz]

I seriously think this is a fold. That said I think the initial 3b should be a flat instead in most games.

 

[fletchdad]

I seriously think this is a fold. That said I think the initial 3b should be a flat instead in most games.

you want to flat an UTG raise in MP with KK? Why? And as far as it being a fold, Why?

 

[beerzy]

I seriously think this is a fold. That said I think the initial 3b should be a flat instead in most games.

What?
For god sake this is NL20 online..
He could have aces?Well he could, but he could have AKs,AKo,KK,QQ, and maybe JJ, JJ would just flat but still he could be overvalueing JJ or just fearing playing pf...
Vil's range imo QQ+,AKs,AKo 42.809%
KcKd 57.191%
Clearly a call imo but people sure like doing hero folds

 

[hackmeplz]

Reason for fold: obviously if he's a random don't fold but assuming he's somewhat regular, 20nl is super ****ing nitty. The odds of a regular player cold 4-betting an UTG open and an MP 3b with QQ/AK is pretty much non-existent. It literally is a range of exactly {AA}.

Reason to flat: I think most people will continue in this spot to a 3b with something like JJ+/AK, maybe a bit wider but we fold everything else out and I think we can get a lot more money postflop from the other hands as well as induce squeezes from people behind. The ironic part is if we flat this hand BB probably squeezes (because he has AA), we back-shove and get coolered. But by taking that line we can get more value from UTG's non-nut range, make people behind squeeze both a bit lighter for value and squeeze bluffs, and just in general make more money I think. fwiw I'd flat AA in this spot as well.

 

[mrmonkey]

and ye since when did i say that QQ and AK will fold to a 5b shove 100% of the time?

Sorry, I think I misread one of your posts somewhere in the thread -- my bad. I think it was the first post which you said "AA a huge portion of the time"... which it is but I don't think we can peg a range of KK+ on this villain even in this spot after just 27 hands.

 

[JCgrind]

Sorry, I think I misread one of your posts somewhere in the thread -- my bad. I think it was the first post which you said "AA a huge portion of the time"... which it is but I don't think we can peg a range of KK+ on this villain even in this spot after just 27 hands.

tbh i dont think this is even villain dependent. its 'the entire player pool dependent'.

ive played a ton of hands at these limits and i virtually never see cold 4bs from ANYONE (bar 24 tabling regs) with anything other than KK+, and even the mass multitablers arent even including QQ in their cold 4b range... its AA, KK and AK for them only.

fwiw, im with hackmeplz on this. i dont think its a fold pre, but i do think 3bing a UTG raise from MP is awful. unless youre super aggro preflop so people have you on a wide 3b range, this is always going to be pegged as at worst QQ+/AK, and therefore the range that youre going to be cold 4b with is incredibly heavily skewed to aces- the exception to this being when UTG is a mad fish and so people can just assume youre isoing. but yeah, i flat KK pre here too. you honestly make that much money backraising QQ+ AI in spots like this that it isnt funny.

solution: if you wanna get this in pre without running into aces every time, stop being such a 3b nit and 3b like 15% pre so people think you can be 5bing worse

 

[fletchdad]

Reason for fold: obviously if he's a random don't fold but assuming he's somewhat regular, 20nl is super ****ing nitty. The odds of a regular player cold 4-betting an UTG open and an MP 3b with QQ/AK is pretty much non-existent. It literally is a range of exactly {AA}.

Reason to flat: I think most people will continue in this spot to a 3b with something like JJ+/AK, maybe a bit wider but we fold everything else out and I think we can get a lot more money postflop from the other hands as well as induce squeezes from people behind. The ironic part is if we flat this hand BB probably squeezes (because he has AA), we back-shove and get coolered. But by taking that line we can get more value from UTG's non-nut range, make people behind squeeze both a bit lighter for value and squeeze bluffs, and just in general make more money I think. fwiw I'd flat AA in this spot as well.

I would flat IF (!) I had the squeeze happy guy to follow, but if you dont have reason to think the squeeze is very likely to happen, you open up the opportunity for a lot of overcalls. I play at 888 and this is VERY likely to happen at these stakes. Do we wan to open up the way to a multiway pot where we are likely to be OOP to at least one player? I am speaking directly to these stakes at this site, cause there is SOOOOOOO much passive play, so you really need to agro squeeze happy guy behind to flat here.

 

[mrmonkey]

tbh i dont think this is even villain dependent. its 'the entire player pool dependent'.

ive played a ton of hands at these limits and i virtually never see cold 4bs from ANYONE (bar 24 tabling regs) with anything other than KK+, and even the mass multitablers arent even including QQ in their cold 4b range... its AA, KK and AK for them only.

I think this may be the case at pokerstars, but I think it's different at 888. I find I make some adjustments to player pool assumptions based on both site and time of day. I will also say it's been a while since I've played stakes >10nl, and when I was doing so it was primarily at Full Tilt pre-takedown... so maybe FTP post-Black Friday but pre-takedown had more preflop spew that included QQ in their cold 4bet range at 25nl? I don't know -- but in any case it's good to know your experience at PokerStars these days as when FTP is back up and running I'm probably going to be back on the grind and starting at these kinds of stakes.

 

[JCgrind]

ye i dont think youre generally gunna get a lot of flats behind unless youre playing at a super fishy table. assuming you get HU or 3way to the flop youre in such a nice spot to stack everyone cos your hand is so underrepped

 

[JCgrind]

this is about the only time i consider folding KK pre, and i still cant bring myself to do it lol. none of the players in this hand are fish surprisingly enough. was real confused by this. also, ive decided that im not good at poker, everyone who i beat is just super shit and i just run good vs everyone better. life heaterz ftw

i consider this to have potential for a fold pre (lol jks im flatting COs 5b worst case scenario) since im tight UTG and i get 3b by CO or some shit who is only like a 5% 3ber. guy in the blinds flatting scares and confuses me, obv im 4bing, then he min 5bs. min 5b in that spot? kinda has to be AA imo, but still, he could just be spazzing bc theres that much dead money lying around. still never foldingg. besides 20% equity is the nuts

poker stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1935652
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $50.00
BTN: $50.40
SB: $51.25
BB: $113.66
Hero (UTG): $51.50
MP: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with K

K

Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $4.50, 2 folds, BB calls $4, Hero raises to $12, CO raises to $19.50, BB calls $15, Hero says "wtf is going on here", Hero raises to $51.50 all in, CO calls $30.50 all in, BB calls $32

Flop: ($153.25) K

3

Q

(3 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: ($153.25) 5

(3 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($153.25) 7

(3 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $153.25
CO shows A

A

(a pair of Aces)
BB shows 3

3

(three of a kind, Threes)
Hero shows K

K

(three of a kind, Kings)
Hero wins $3.00
Hero wins $147.75
(Rake: $2.50)