$2 NLHE 6-max: River donk bet sizing with virtual nuts

[quant1986]

888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $1.38 (69 bb)
MP: $1.00 (50 bb)
CO: $1.87 (94 bb)
BU: $2.94 (147 bb)
SB: $0.80 (40 bb)
BB (Hero): $4.88 (244 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with A♠ K♣
UTG raises to $0.08, 4 players fold, Hero calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.17) 4♣ 5♣ J♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.06, Hero calls $0.06

Turn: ($0.29) Q♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

River: ($0.49) A♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.38, UTG calls $0.38

Reason not 3 betting preflop
Villain is an unknown and 4BB raise from UTG (sizing tells) likely to be premium hands and I don't want to flip my hand against that range if villain 4bet allin

Should I go larger on the river to extract more values from sets or lower flush?
Villain may not fold AQ/AJ given my sizing.

 

[Alucard]

V is shortstacked so I might just GII pre.
But I like your line as well

 

[MatMackenz]

I think flating with AK is just fine against the unknown player, although there is some merit to 3-betting in this spot.

I ran the scenario through Poker Snowie to see what it thinks.

Pre-Flop is puts the EV of calling @ 1.43 and the EV of a raise to 0.25$ @ 1.45 , so slighltly better to raise, but as you can see it is still very close.

Check/Call on the flop is the best play here according to Snowie.

Check/Call on the turn again is the best play.

On the river it looks like snowie prefers trying to go for a check-raise here (You have the actual nuts btw) even tho it calculates check-raise success at 17% (chance opponent will bet if checked too).

If it was to bet it thinks using a smaller sizing is optimal.

 

[quant1986]

Interesting to see what Poker Snowie suggests. I think villain would only bet with Jc and may check back sets/lower flush.

 

[TheBigFinn]

I don't think UTG rise is all that big and I would 3B pot with AK. As played Villain's hand is not well defined, and Hero is calling in the dark. When Hero check calls the 1/3 pot CB with 6 outs, what is the plan? I like a check raise fold to a re-re-raise on the flop. If just called I raise almost and turn card, especially when the flush draw comes in.

As played, calling the 1/3 pot size bet with 15 outs is close to the odds. When the river comes in with the nuts is interesting. I doubt a check call will work better than donk betting 3/4 pot. Villain has bet small on the flop and the turn, and I'd guess she she would not call and all in.

I like the size of the river bet.

 

[Hujiko]

Agree with the above.

As to the raise size on the river I like your sizing but I think that most likely your opponent is a fish so a bigger sizing like a pot bet might also work and for sure he will call with AJ, AQ.

I like to see what GTO play style is like but in this analyses cant trust that analyses as for sure the villain is most likely a fish and not a GTO player. Now most fish players are less likely to bluff on such a board so checking is even worse in my opinion although fish might overvalue two pair and value bet the board on the other hand fish will generally call more so betting out is probably the best play.

 

[quant1986]

Thanks everyone, Villain had JcJd here

 

[Nathan Smith]

888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $1.38 (69 bb)
MP: $1.00 (50 bb)
CO: $1.87 (94 bb)
BU: $2.94 (147 bb)
SB: $0.80 (40 bb)
BB (Hero): $4.88 (244 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with A♠ K♣
UTG raises to $0.08, 4 players fold, Hero calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.17) 4♣ 5♣ J♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.06, Hero calls $0.06

Turn: ($0.29) Q♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

River: ($0.49) A♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.38, UTG calls $0.38

Reason not 3 betting preflop
Villain is an unknown and 4BB raise from UTG (sizing tells) likely to be premium hands and I don't want to flip my hand against that range if villain 4bet allin

Should I go larger on the river to extract more values from sets or lower flush?
Villain may not fold AQ/AJ given my sizing.

I think in a 2nl cash game I am happy to 3bet-call vs a short stacked opponent. Villain played this horribly - as he gave you the correct price to call flop and turn. I think your river lead is better than checking just because of the STP. What do you do if villain bets $0.15 on flop?