I seem to be alone. Re-reading the HH without all the comments, and I still call his shove. Biggest factor might be that this is a ring game. In a tourney I might decide to fold. But if so it would be purely a survival thing, not because I think I was definitely beat here.
In my mind there are only three
hands to worry about....AA,KK,QQ. slim chance at TT, but this was 2NL, and anything is possible. Since villain did not 4 bet thru the process, I assume something other than a bigger PP.
I would approach this hand a bit like Doyle describes at the back of Super System 2. With a similar attitude....If I'm wrong, so be it. And I'm wrong often enough to get stacked here, but I catch a lot of bluffs lately and don't worry so much about the money involved, which I think too many ITT are worrying about.
But I am not known as a ring player, and I see several names ITT who are. So turn on your fish finders and look for me.......
As for the
odds involved.. and the OP question .."Is he
bluffing missed draws or over-playing top pair often enough to make this a call?" Ahhhh, this hand sort of describes the essence of poker....... Under what circumstances do we gamble? For me, this is one where I would.
I don't like the story villain tried to tell me....and the hand that might haunt me would be villain play 67s (probably clubs) and hitting his gutshot.