This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: The hand that cost me my profit within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; If I played this hand again, I bet big on the flop, but I wanted him to put money in the pot, if I bet,
If I played this hand again, I bet big on the flop, but I wanted him to put money in the pot, if I bet, he folds, which is great for me on this hand.. When he checks I think he missed so I was going to bet big on the Turn if he bet the flop, but nothing, so on the Turn I want a bet size that's going to get called.. The river be has me beat... Is that unlucky?
Is my thought process wrong..
Should I be betting the flop even though I'll likely get him to fold?
You need to bet the flop, and you need to bet the turn more. Why would you check the flop? That's a wet coordinated board. If someone doesn't call you there, when do you think they are going to call you? As played with only 84bbs to start, you're getting stacked on the river with that runout.
You wouldn't have won much if you bet the flop, because your opponent should be folding with his hand, but you also wouldn't have lost your stack.
You must bet on the flop value. You have color with king of spades and a board co-ordinated towards the colored stairs. It is a difficult board to let the next street run, so you want to get the most money as soon as possible.
Think that there are many As-X combos that are possibly looking for the biggest color. So you should exert all the pressure on the flop.
Similarly, on the turn a dead street appears that does not affect your hand and you just have to think of a very large size to continue betting. Hopefully they will pay you many combinations of lesser value that will think you are bluffing them with some draw combo.
On the river another 7 appears and at this time, you should think that there are 7 possibilities that would give the villain the winner:
999-77; JJJ-77; 888-77; 7777; 777-99; 777-JJ; 777-88.
So on this board, you must be very careful with that big bet that the villain made. It may also have a greater color than yours with the ace.
You must resort to the information you have about the villain's game and make a decision. Personally I think I would fold.
Here is my initial take on this -- but know that I'm still learning, and I am counting on some other more experienced players to step in and offer better guidance. Nevertheless, here is one amateur's perspective.
Too loose. K3s is a fold in EP. Unless you have intel that you are dealing with an extremely tight table, but even then, there are better positions to steal blinds. If you are going to raise however, it has to be for at least 3BB, and possibly an extra BB to take into account poor position and to discourage callers. As played, a min-raise makes it an easy call for BB and any halfway decent hand in MP and LP. BB can call with any halfway decent hand since it only costs 1 BB to see the flop.
Congratulations! You flopped a flush but it's not the nut flush. AND... any hand containing As can still draw for a flush that can beat you if another spade comes out on the turn or river. So you absolutely have to bet for value here and make them pay for a draw. As played, you gave them a free card to beat you with. The other thing is that while a flush is a strong hand, there is no real way for you to improve from that... so each card drawn can only work against you and not improve your hand. Whereas a pair can turn into trips and then a full house, which is what happened here. Sure, a bet would have made him fold... but as mentioned... it's better than losing your stack if free cards work against you.
I don't think there is any way you could have guessed he would have completed his set, so likely scenario is that any bet would have been called if not raised. 1BB bet is too small of a bet size... needs to be at least half pot here to charge for draws. I'd say that the bet needs to be 0.05 or higher. You would have likely been called, which wouldn't have been the end of the world, but at least you charged for the draw and you still had odds to win the hand at this point.
Yes, you were unlucky. But part of the issue is that you really had no idea what you were up against. Your 1bb bet on the turn was called... and that really didn't help narrow his range from your perspective.
Villain's overbet on the river represents strength, but we don't quite know how strong. You had a strong hand, but not the nuts or even the near nuts. A paired card on a connected board is a bit scary. Your preflop bet wouldn't have scared anyone away, so villain could also be every easily sitting with 87, 77, 88, J7, JJ, 99 or 97. Villain could have had anything here. As played, I think I would have called it off on the river and go to showdown.
I'm not sure if I like the min-raise -- what was the purpose of that raise? To make villain fold or for value? When the villain re-raises, he is telling you that he has the nuts or near nuts after an overbet on the river and I think it's a fold on the re-raise on the river. If villain was trying to bluff you off on the initial overbet with air, I don't think he would have continued with that another time. Could he have attempted to push you with a gutshot straight? perhaps, but I don't know if villain would have pushed it that hard with a potential flush and full-house on the board.
As played, I think you would have lost something on the river, but I don't really think that it should have been for your full stack. But I'll go back to what I first said... this hand should have been folded pre-flop and none of this would have happened. Then again, I hope that this does represent a learning opportunity for you... so maybe not all is lost.
re: Poker & $2 NLHE 6-max: The hand that cost me my profit
Just fold. I am also not a fan of mini-raising in general, except when very short stacked in tournaments.
Bet for value.
Bet larger for value, not just a mini-bet.
Whenever you are facing a bet from your opponent, you need to think about, what he is representing and put him on a range, before deciding your action. He is obviously saying, he improved, which mean either trips or a full house, since the board is now paired.
But trips are not leading for 2 times the pot, when there is not just a flush but also a 1-liner to a straight on the board. So he is saying, he has a full house, which mean, your hand is now a bluff catcher.
This mean, that calling and folding are both reasonable options, but raising is completely out of the question. His range is polarized, as its called. You are either beat, or he is bluffing, and if he is bluffing, he is of course not going to call a raise.
I would pretty much never see the river like this, but if I did, I would find it difficult to fold. So I would not blame you for calling here, but raising is honestly totally insane, and even more so, when you also call off his 3-bet.
He is not doing this with trips, and he is not doing it with a worse flush or a straight either, because if he had that, you would have heard from him on the turn. He would not just check-call your mini-bet with a straight or flush and then go crazy, when the board pair on the river.
Preflop... man what are you doing? But forgetting that, you get the flop of your dreams. So... I mean...
DUDE, BET THAT FLOP! ALWAYS!!
If BB checks, you ALWAYS bet there... I literally can't think of a reason not to. You want him to call with the Ace of spades, top pair, 2 pairs and sets... a lot of these hands won't believe you flopped a flush (why should they?) so you are printing money when you bet.
If he check raises you, you call. You don't want him getting a free card, and even with his exact hand he's calling some % of the time (depending on your table image, his play style etc.)
As played, the turn is hard to do. You betting looks really strong. But what else can you do? I'd just go ahead and over bet, or bet at least pot. Why your opponent didn't bet into you is also strange, given his hand.
Since a turn bet will look weird, you can go ahead and bet large to polarize your range into bluffs/the nuts. He will call you down a good chunk of the time, enough to make $.
River, the board pairs.. his check, check, shove is looking like it has you beat. I'd fold here, given previous action. Villain played this hand pretty weird too, and because of that I'd assume you are beat. I guess sometimes he'd bet with a straight, but again, that hand would likely bet out earlier.