$2 NLHE 6-max: AK going for 3 streets/get raised on river

[Casey55]

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $3.48 (174 bb)
MP: $5.00 (250 bb)
CO: $2.08 (104 bb)
BU: $2.15 (108 bb)
SB (Hero): $5.33 (267 bb)
BB: $2.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with K♣ A♠
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, 2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.08, 1 fold, MP calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.18) Q♣ A♥ 6♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.06, MP calls $0.06

Turn: ($0.30) J♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.15, MP calls $0.15

River: ($0.60) 5♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.39, MP raises to $0.78, Hero calls $0.39

can we ever fold the river given the price? what hands do we give him credit for given his line of play?

 

[Hermus]

Some passive players show up with even the very nutted pre-flop combos like QQ+. More likely all two pair combos containing an ace or two broadways, JJ, 66, KT. When a passive player reraises you, you're likely in trouble. For this price you can't really fold though since any random bluff combo just makes this a profitable call.


Because the 5 is a complete blank and you didn't get raised on the turn check/calling the river would be my preferred line. If you know he'll call you down with worse paired hands, going for three streets of value is perfectly fine, but I think that's a pretty sketchy assumption to make versus most players.

 

[Sidetracked]

I know that solvers are all about minute flop bets these days (1/3 pot) but at $2 NL I think it's more exploitative to use bigger sizings. The bad players at those limits will call anyway, making bigger mistakes.

As played, I think check/calling the river is an option. I don't think you can fold to the min raise, though.

 

[liuouhgkres]

I have issue with your sizing on turn and river. Look, villain is passive and on this turn villain can have AQ, AJ, A6s, KT, 66 and even JJ. With AK you have value bet, because you will get called by weaker Ax hands, but this value is very thin. You should go for a small sizing on the turn already, because you don't want to play a huge pot with this hand.
River: by default you should check this river with intention to call their bet. However, if villain is passive, which we kinda can assume, you can bet for thin value again with a small sizing, getting value from his Ax hands. It's insta fold to any raise though and in your situation it's insta fold again. Yes, you have great odds, but trust me, regular villains bluff 1 in 100 in these spots. Unless you are sure that villain is crazy spewy you should insta fold.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard isolation, but out of position I would prefer it to be larger like even just 10c.

Flop
I would like this small bet in a tournament or a high stakes cash game, but at 2NL against a fishy limper, I think, this sizing is leaving money on the table.

Turn
The J is not the greatest card, since it does complete hands like AJ, QJ and KT, which could all be in his range. Even so I am still on board with betting for value, and half pot looks fine. This kind of player is not folding any AX hand, and he can likely have all of them.

River
The 5 is a pretty big blank, and once again I think, its fine to bet half pot against a fishy limper. However when you get raised, I think, this is a fold. I know, you are getting a sick price, but when someone play passively for the entire hand and then wakes up with a raise on the river, its just never a bluff. And he is also not doing this for value with a hand worse than yours. If he had AT, A9 and so on, he would call again, but he would not raise.

So this is a classic bet-fold spot against a fish. And dont listen to people, who go "LOL pot odds" or "you cant fold, because its to exploitable". Neither of this matter, because he is literally screaming from the mountain top, that you are beat. You only need to win this around 18% of the time, but we all know, you are winning maybe 1-2% of the time. So just fold and move on to the next hand.

If you want to look at the situation a little deeper, then first of all what is he bluffing with? The only flopped draws were KJ, KT, JT, and these hands either turned a pair or a straight. And he is not turning one pair into a bluff on the river by min-raising it. So even just based on, what he arrive on the river with, he have no hands, that have not paired up, so he have no natural bluffs.

Also this is probably (or at least should be) the worst hand in your range, that goes for 3 streets of value. So folding to a raise is not that tight or exploitable, as some people will instinctively think. You can have a bunch of sets or two pair here, or maybe even KT for the straight. So its not like, you are always folding, because you fold a one pair hand to this raise.

 

[Vallet]

The most expected hand that can be assumed from the opponent's range is A5. Check-call line and unwillingness to drop an ace with a weak kicker. The opponent can bluff with a minimum raise, but he does not put all in. It is unlikely that he has a KT or a set.