This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: AA facing turn raise within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker
UTG: $1.76 (88 bb)
CO (Hero): $3.29 (165 bb)
BU: $3.39 (170 bb)
SB: $1.94 (97
I thought villain would likely 3-bet his best PP's pre-flop. On the flop I think I could have sized up bit the board was kind of dry besides gut-shots and random T8 so I bet small-ish. The turn is a blank except for possibility of 22, I bet again and get raised. Here I think he can have 9x, 77,22. I also think he can potentially have 88,TT or maybe even JJ once in a while. I just call because I think I can be beat and the min-raise seems strong. I planned on folding to a good bet on the river but when ANOTHER 9 comes in it makes it even harder for him to have a 9. I check and villain bets on the smaller side ..slightly under half pot. I need to win 25% of the time . I give his range:
- A9dd,K9dd,Q9dd,J9dd,T9dd and maybe 98dd
I lose to all of these hands which is 12 combos, If I can give his range TT I can justify the call, if I include an over-played 88 some portion of the time or even some JJ I think I can call. I think theres a decent chance TT and JJ raise pre-flop but some players might flat and I have seen strange things at 2nl. Thoughts?
C-betting small is fine, but we can also check back from time to time to underrepresent our hand a little bit. AA dont need much protection on this board, and if he has a hand like QJ, we actually want him to stick around and make a pair on the turn, because then we can get paid.
Turn bet is fine, but when he min-raised you, it really scream trips, and folding would actually not be crazy against a passive and predictable opponent. Its a classic situation covered by the Baluga theorem. It is a min-raise though, and if we think, there is any chance, he could be doing this with hands like TT or 88, that he overvalue, we have to call. But already now we should prepare ourselfes mentally for folding on a lot of rivers.
Other than an A this was the best card in the deck for us, since it counterfeited 77 and 22, and it cut out half the combos of 9X. He can still have 9X though, and a limp-calling range certainly dont only include suited hands. So there is 2 A9, 4 K9, 4 Q9, 4 J9, 4 T9 and 4 98 plus maybe even more. Even so I guess, we have to call? At this limit some players might not understand, that 77 or 22 got counterfeited, or they might bet again with TT or 88, because "LOL I have a full house". Or they made some silly limp-call with KK and think, they have been trapping you the whole time. You are getting a good price also needing to win this less than 1 out of 4 times. I do expect him to show up with quads a lot though.
Such hands are not thrown away. You have the second nuts. The villain makes an attractive bet on the river. The opponent's range is very narrow. And I would definitely choose a check-call line. The check on the river made it clear to the opponent that we don't have nines. Therefore, he can place a bet with any full houses. There is only one card in the deck that beats us. If he has a nine, we are not surprised by this. So we're playing at PokerStars.
Why are you betting this flop? This would be a good board to cbet bluff, but as a value bet, what are we getting called by? T-8? 7x? Pocket pairs? If we check this one we induce BTN to make a betting mistake and under rep our hand. The sizing you choose is goofy here also. I prefer a check.
The range BTN and/or SB will have when we bet this flop will be narrowed down considerably, and sometimes taking this line we value own ourselves if they have 9x, which is def plausible because this flop is so dry.
Check flop, call any reasonable bet by BTN and re-eval turn. If BTN bets, SB check raises, maybe think about folding in that scenario.
Alarm bells should be ringing right here. Look at this from BTNs perspective: you raised pre, bet flop, bet turn, you are showing strength, but he is hitting you with the slap in the face min raise. It is possible your goofy flop bet size induced this from BTN, but I would take it at face value here TBH. You have 1p and we should have checked the flop avoiding this spot altogether. If a whole bunch of money goes into the pot on the river, do you expect to have the best hand then? I would consider folding, but if you call, re-eval river. If BTN bombs river, I'm folding.
When I wrote my first reply, I had misread the hand history and thought, we got called by the limper and someone from the blinds. I see now, that we instead got cold called by BTN and someone from the blinds, and this actually matter. First of all without any other reads BTN is probably a better player, or at least we dont have any sign, he is a fish. And since he cold called, he probably have something at least reasonable. Like a decent ace, a decent broadway, a small to medium pair or a suited connector.
And second in this configuration I really prefer checking the flop. If we bet, even a small bet like here, we force BTN to get rid of all his junk. Its difficult for him to liberally float us with air, because he still have the player in the blind left to act behind him. Whereas if we check, we make it look like, we missed and are ready to give up, and this open the door for him to bluff.
Often in poker we want to go for value, but specifically on paired rainbow boards hands like AA or KK often play much better as a check out of position. Its such a way ahead way behind spot, where either the opponent has trips, or they have a weak hand, that we can not get 3 streets of value from anyway. Hands like KJ or AT are just going to fold, if we bet, and hands like 76s or 44 are not going to call us all the way down, if we go bet, bet, bet.
So just hand him the rope to hang himself, and then basically call him all the way down especially on this runout. You still lose, if he has a 9 of course, but you keep his range much wider and win money from him, when he is bluffing. Whereas with the line, you took here, you forced him to fold all his bluffs on the flop, so when he then raise you on the turn, its almost always for value.
You might say, that if he wanted to bluff, why did he not raise the flop? But there is a simple answer to that, because at that point BB was still in the hand, and if BTN flopped trips, he obviously wanted BB to stay in the hand and come along for the ride. Whereas on the turn BB was out, so now BTN could spring the trap and try to win a big pot against a hand like the one, you had.
Really disagree with this take. The flop bet isn’t a goofy bet its a small bet because villain can’t have much and I still want thin value. I understand the point of checking to let opponents bluff but at 2nl without solid reads but I don’t rely on my opponents to build the pot for me.. at 2nl I’m just betting for value. hard to tell what they will call with, a PP, 7x , JTs or two overs like KQ can probably all call a small flop bet IP, some fish will call 3 streets with a gutshot, its the circus down here So I like betting.
River we’re getting 3:1. If villain is ever betting with an overpair that rivered a boat calling can’t be that bad. He can only have so many 9x of diamonds combos. A9dd,K9dd,Q9dd,J9dd etc. Not very many and if we ever think he could be overplaying TT or JJ here there is 12 combos right there.. I didn’t even realize the river gave us a boat to be ahead of 77 and 22 some players at 2nl may think any boat is good here and not know how to read board correctly. Because of the price laid I don’t think its that clear cut.
I don’t see the flop and turn betting as forcing, I’m simply betting for value, villain could call flop because it was small and turn with all sorts of stuff. T8s, JTs, middlinf pocket pairs that want to look me up etc. Its easy to come up with that narative when we see that he is raising the turn repping a strong hand but if you input a reasonable flop and turn calling range I think there are still quite a few worse hands that may call, I’m going to bet for value whenever possible. When I get raised on the turn it sucks but I’m getting 5:1, tough to fold an overpair being laid those pot odds.
F: bet much bigger to 75-100% pot, we're multi-way and OOP. Best case scenario BU folds and SB continues.
T: bet much bigger to 100% pot, as played, yes bet/call vs min-raise.
R: check/call vs small-ish bet, I'm not a believer in BB's fishy line.
I disagree with comments above about small bets folding out weak ranges. Small bets are no good in nl2 for 2 reasons:
1. We're missing an insane amount of value.
2. Small bluffs almost never get folds.
Balance considerations do not apply of standart form when we are at 3MWB.
Here the weakest player is the SB. And when we can have AK; AQ; AJ in our range of bluffs, that greatly reduces the hands that BU could use as bluffs on the turn.
Nor do I see many 9X combos in V. He could have mainly T9 and 98. I don't think much else that it.
Note that the SB range contains speculative hands that did not quit preflop. Like: KTs; KJs and KQs.
On the other hand, if we assume that V is passive enough to call preflop with many hands of various values, then it makes sense to bet flop and specifically, the exploitative play here. Therefore we could go with a half pot bet for get paid from dominated hands.
If on the other hand, we believe that this V has a more balanced range, the c bet should be even smaller than the size made. We could even check on this texture to keep the ranges unchanged.
As played the flop, the turn does not change the ranges at all. It is the most neutral brick in the deck. Here you should check your range in a high frequency. If we couldn't beat low pockets like 33-66, they also won't have enough fold equity on this turn.
Also the main reason to check here is to induce bets of villain.
The river is marginal, because now V shot a neutral bet and here you should definitely call in micro stakes.
If the V shows you a 9x hand other than: T9s or 98s, he is definitely a player with whom you could win a lot of money in the future.