$2 NL HE 6-max: What would you have done?

[Funtast]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.01/$.02

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

VP$IP

20

PFR

18

AF

3

Currency

$

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/18/3
Today I played a hand against a reggish player - stats. (20/18/3bet:7)
Eff. Stack 140BB
I opened AhKd from LJ 2bb
Villain raised 7bb from HJ
Hero 4bet 21bb (119bb left)
V called 21bb
Flop Ad8c5h - Pot 43,5
H bet 11bb (108bb left)
V call 11bb
Turn Td - pot 65bb
H bet 18bb (90bb left)
V call 18bb
River 2d - Pot 101bb
Hero???

What would you do in that spot?
What would you put Villain on - rangewise?
I´ll post the outcome later.

 

[BetterThanAvgButNotByMuch]

I would sit there and watch the table to see if I can put them on a range and have a feel for whats going on at the table and see if I'm in the mood for their antics.

If someone comes to the table after I join then I wouldn't play big hands with them until I have a feel for them.

Watch what they're doing at our table, if online, then scan other tables at the level you're playing (either 1 above or below, if applicable) and see if they're playing other tables to see what they are.

I'm not a Hud person, lol.

So 2x raise with AKo?

Please explain what that does because as usual, lol I am absolutely clueless to what a min raise or bet does there at that level.

It won't stop anyone that's interested in playing a hand, it doesn't change the odds to call or chase, it doesn't build a big pot, so someone needs to explain what a min raise does at 1/2 cent to me, lol.

I don't understand that one.

Maybe I'm reading it wrong?

 

[puzzlefish]

I'd check and bluff catch. Betting anything without two diamonds is basically folding out non-diamond hands and chasing away any bluffs. You're either betting and getting jammed on or folded on, or check-calling some fishy bets or staring at jams anyway.

 

[300HPGOD]

Im with the post above about min raising. All your raises pre flop when opening at 2NL should be 3x. We get 3 bet which the process should start here at range narrowing but with AK I would not be going anywhere. I generally wouldnt be 4 betting unless I thought I was 4 betting for value and villain could have AQ or AJ AND actually call with it. Its not listed in this post what we are thinking in regards to what villian would call our 4 bet with. I personally would not 4 bet here and have those hands fold out so I prefer just calling pre flop and seeing what happens even though we are out of position. We do 4 bet and if we are going to than I think we should be going a little bigger than 3x here to make sure we cut down on implied odds as we are out of position here.

As played on the flop I dont get the smallish bet here. I suppose we are trying to keep KK and QQ in assuming those hands do not 5 bet pre but all the Ax hands will call and the risk that we are up against A8 or A5 is smaller since we 4 bet so we should go bigger. I think we can easily go 15-17 BBs here and potentially get called by KK or QQ and those hands shouldnt call 2 streets no matter what the flop sizing is so going small and then small again turn should not keep them in. Better to just try and get some value now and then also if we are up against AQ we have an easier time getting more later if we bet say 16 now compared to 11.

Turn brings 2 diamonds and a little wetter board for straights nut no worries yet. Here I'd be thinking the big pairs than are less than mine are going to fold to any sizing I make it but the Ax will still call so to me, no reason to go small here. Yes there is some chance we are up against a set or A10 but if we think that way we will have a hard time picking up chips so I think villains hand is a lot of JJ-KK which folds no matter what size I make it and then AJ-AK which will call a lot of sizings. Im thinking in game I would make it 25-30 BBs and lean more towards the 30 BB sizing.

River brings in the diamond flush. The Ace of diamonds is out there and we hold the K of diamonds so we must ponder what two diamond hand is 3 betting pre and then calling a 4 bet. Does Q10, QJ or J10 of diamonds do this... maybe but 7% 3 bet is not maniac-ial by any means so Im discounting those holdings and therefore am not too worried about the flush. With that thinking it comes down to what AQ and AJ would do if our opponent has them. Some villains would check those back in a hand like this with 3 diamonds out there. If there wasnt a 3rd diamond on the river I like checking to see if I could induce a bluff or a bet that maybe villain thinks they are making for value but here with a diamond, with a flush by my opponent discounted I think I value bet again and target AQ and AJ. I doubt those hands bluff raise due to the 3rd diamond and would have a hard time folding at 2NL.

 

[Station_Master]

Ship the rest of it in. As said above highly unlikely villain has diamonds. Very few hands beat you, e.g. does TT or AT even 3bet at 2NL, there is only 1 combo of AA. Most likely he has AK or AQ.

Your turn bet is too small though as you end up having to make a big bet to get stacks in on the river, e.g. you bet 50% pot on turn then its 130bb or so with 75bb behind.

 

[Funtast]

As this hand is LJ vs HJ, I put him on AQo+, AJs+, JJ+ and some "random" 3bet bluffs he managed to call the 4bet with. 45s, ATs, A5s etc. The turn is pretty much a blank because it really changes nothing. Therefore I obviously bet small enough to keep AJ+ in the hand. No reason make the hands that I beat at this point fold guys. I pretty much have the nuts 90% of the time here. The river is a diamond, it completes backdoor flushes. But which backdoorflushes call a 4bet pre and call the flopbet? No diamond broadwaycombos can call pre or on the flop. No ace combos are possible. Only reasonable combos would be 87,89 diamond and 54,56 diamond. That's very unlikelyish. So I think the river is a brick, since it's nearly impossible for me to have a flush as well.
At that point i think it makes sense to polarize on the river and jam for value, so I stick it in.
He calls and shows TT which shocked me.
Imho considering our positions TT is a bad call pre and an outstanding terrible call on the flop since he beats nothing of my range, has only 4% to improve with the next card and there are simply no possible scarecards on the turn that he can bluff profitably.
I instantly marked him as a maniac callingstation and ended my session.

 

[Funtast]

I would sit there and watch the table to see if I can put them on a range and have a feel for whats going on at the table and see if I'm in the mood for their antics.

The hand was played on rush poker. No other infos about the player but HUD.

If someone comes to the table after I join then I wouldn't play big hands with them until I have a feel for them.

Watch what they're doing at our table, if online, then scan other tables at the level you're playing (either 1 above or below, if applicable) and see if they're playing other tables to see what they are.

I'm not a Hud person, lol.

Not applicable.

So 2x raise with AKo?

Yes 2x. 95% players open 2x in the pool the hand was played.

Please explain what that does because as usual, lol I am absolutely clueless to what a min raise or bet does there at that level.

It's standard and as you see I managed to get it from 2x to 21x pre. That's what it does.

It won't stop anyone that's interested in playing a hand, it doesn't change the odds to call or chase, it doesn't build a big pot, so someone needs to explain what a min raise does at 1/2 cent to me, lol.

I don't understand that one.

Maybe I'm reading it wrong?

You are reading it right. But you are wrong. At least for the played player pool.

Greetings

 

[Funtast]

I'd check and bluff catch. Betting anything without two diamonds is basically folding out non-diamond hands and chasing away any bluffs. You're either betting and getting jammed on or folded on, or check-calling some fishy bets or staring at jams anyway.

It seems like we are playing in different worlds / player pools. Why would AQ for example ever fold against a value bet the way the hand was played?

 

[Funtast]

Ship the rest of it in. As said above highly unlikely villain has diamonds. Very few hands beat you, e.g. does TT or AT even 3bet at 2NL, there is only 1 combo of AA. Most likely he has AK or AQ.

Your turn bet is too small though as you end up having to make a big bet to get stacks in on the river, e.g. you bet 50% pot on turn then its 130bb or so with 75bb behind.

My plan on the turn was to to make a more polarized bet on the river so that the trash aces stay in for possible bluffcatch. Who calls 3 streets of heavy value with anything worse than AQ here?

 

[Station_Master]

My plan on the turn was to to make a more polarized bet on the river so that the trash aces stay in for possible bluffcatch. Who calls 3 streets of heavy value with anything worse than AQ here?

But it's mainly AQ you want the calls from (as the most prevalent part of his range). Having the trashy aces fold turn is not a disaster as they can still suck out so the denial has some benefit, and maybe AQ folds river anyway.

For what it's worth I think villain played it fine. TT is a good 3bet and fine to call the 4bet. On the flop he has position and is getting great odds, it's a standard call. I wouldn't expect many villains to 3bet TT at 2NL but unfortunately you ran into one.

 

[puzzlefish]

It seems like we are playing in different worlds / player pools. Why would AQ for example ever fold against a value bet the way the hand was played?

Maybe. Curious to see how often you run into AQ or worse on this board that calls your value bet, but definitely those won't be the ones calling your jam.

 

[gustav197poker]

You have a range advantage. So you could block the turn with an overbet. You are only below TT, 88 and 55. (yes, this time you were unlucky). But if your opponent is that good you defeat 77, 99 and JJ.
As played now on the river there were no major changes in the ranges, so I would hope to get to the showdown in the cheapest way possible.
Attempting an OTR bluff is a more sophisticated line and you must have more experience with this particular villain to attempt it.

 

[Aballinamion]

Today I played a hand against a reggish player - stats. (20/18/3bet:7)
Eff. Stack 140BB
I opened AhKd from LJ 2bb

You know this is a "reggish" opponent, keep that in mind while playing against those and while you analyze your hand further for study and application.
Why did you elect to open only 2x from the LJ? It couldn't be 2.5x? 3x? Why?

Villain raised 7bb from HJ
Hero 4bet 21bb (119bb left)
V called 21bb

Now do we have any notion of what types of hand villain is raising/3-betting with? Okay, opponent might have a 7% 3-bet range: we are blocking part of the combinations with aces and kings. We are not considering that villain is 3-betting a lot with 88, 99 or maybe even TT. Hands like KJ, KQ are not a certain. We are left with AQ+ both suited and off-suited. But we are blocking part of those, so okay that villain maybe 3-bets with 88, 99, TT but would it call a 4-bet with hands like 99, KJs, KQs, AQs?
Now I have another question: our preflop sizing was too small, we went for 2x, a min-raise. Now our 4-bet sizing is too big, even considering that we are OOP. We went for 3x the sizing of the 3-bet and for a size like this I would consider breaking even hands like AK, sometimes AQ is calling. Sometimes even AA is calling this for trap, but villain doesn't hold many of those. It lasts KK, QQ and JJ as realistic hands, that could 3-bet and call a 4-bet here, giving realistic sizing.

Flop Ad8c5h - Pot 43,5
H bet 11bb (108bb left)
V call 11bb

This flop is a little bit dry. No problem going for 1/4 or 1/3 pot in the same situation. Some KK, QQ and JJ aren't folding here to this sizing and we want that, because villain will own much more of these combos. AQ also continues. By the way, AQ won't fold to any sizing right now.

Turn Td - pot 65bb
H bet 18bb (90bb left)
V call 18bb

Now there is chance for a back door flush and we want to stack villain on any river in the case villain is calling down here with AQ, AJ, Ax, KK, QQ and JJ that got sticky to the 4-bet pot and our sizing should be a little bit bigger in order to stack most of rivers. We could be going for 1/2 pot or 3/4 por or even full pot, if our plan is to jam any river.

River 2d - Pot 101bb
Hero???

I think we are betting thin here. If villain raises it is hard to fold but why did we 4-bet and c-bet flop/turn? We were doing it for value right? So I guess we continue our value betting to extract of possible losing hands.

What would you do in that spot?
What would you put Villain on - rangewise?
I´ll post the outcome later.

I answered these questions throughout the hand analysis.

 

[Funtast]

You know this is a "reggish" opponent, keep that in mind while playing against those and while you analyze your hand further for study and application.
Why did you elect to open only 2x from the LJ? It couldn't be 2.5x? 3x? Why?

2.5x and 3x are so rare on that pool that it looks very strange to bet that. Especially from LJ it is basically screaming out AK+ JJ+ here to open 3x for ex.

Now do we have any notion of what types of hand villain is raising/3-betting with? Okay, opponent might have a 7% 3-bet range: we are blocking part of the combinations with aces and kings. We are not considering that villain is 3-betting a lot with 88, 99 or maybe even TT.

The problem here is: I didn´t know if he is polarizing or merging his 3bets...

Hands like KJ, KQ are not a certain. We are left with AQ+ both suited and off-suited. But we are blocking part of those, so okay that villain maybe 3-bets with 88, 99, TT but would it call a 4-bet with hands like 99, KJs, KQs, AQs?

I think most players that 3bet AQo+, AJs+ for value in that spot can´t fold it to a 4bet in that pool. I don´t think that players call with TT- too often in that pool simply because 4bet ranges are AK+ QQ+ for the most part in that spot.

Now I have another question: our preflop sizing was too small, we went for 2x, a min-raise.

Why is 2x too small? Isn´t it standard, what do I miss here? I open 16-18% in the LJ, I can´t afford to raise more against all those 3bet monkeys.

Now our 4-bet sizing is too big, even considering that we are OOP.

What would be a proper 4bet sizing oop in that spot? AKo is ment to resteal oop and still toasts some of his range. So why go smaller?

We went for 3x the sizing of the 3-bet and for a size like this I would consider breaking even hands like AK, sometimes AQ is calling. Sometimes even AA is calling this for trap, but villain doesn't hold many of those. It lasts KK, QQ and JJ as realistic hands, that could 3-bet and call a 4-bet here, giving realistic sizing.

That´s what I thought.

This flop is a little bit dry. No problem going for 1/4 or 1/3 pot in the same situation. Some KK, QQ and JJ aren't folding here to this sizing and we want that, because villain will own much more of these combos. AQ also continues. By the way, AQ won't fold to any sizing right now.

Indeed.

Now there is chance for a back door flush and we want to stack villain on any river in the case villain is calling down here with AQ, AJ, Ax, KK, QQ and JJ that got sticky to the 4-bet pot and our sizing should be a little bit bigger in order to stack most of rivers.

How many flushdraws can villain have in your opinion, I wrote already that I thought flushdraws are totally unlikely.

We could be going for 1/2 pot or 3/4 por or even full pot, if our plan is to jam any river.

I think 1/2 pot is fine as well although i prefer to leave the door open for villain jams on turn. 3/4 pot? Why fold out his bluffcatchers?

I think we are betting thin here. If villain raises it is hard to fold but why did we 4-bet and c-bet flop/turn? We were doing it for value right? So I guess we continue our value betting to extract of possible losing hands.

I thought the flush would be a good bluffspot to jam and make his bluffcatchers and weaker aces call my jam. I wanted to maximally polarize for value. It´s thin but I still can´t see any hands that he can "normally" have that have us beat often enough that a jam would be -EV.

I answered these questions throughout the hand analysis.

Thank you very much, apreciate it.

 

[Mac557]

As played, I check and bluff catch.

Definitely size up your PFR, I would never go less than 2.5x in this position.

Also Cbet larger, I would aim for 15BB. An alternative would be to induce bluffing if you think he is aggressive enough by just X/C'ing and hoping he fires off three barrels to get you to fold KK. It will help balance your range against regs like this.

 

[Aballinamion]

2.5x and 3x are so rare on that pool that it looks very strange to bet that. Especially from LJ it is basically screaming out AK+ JJ+ here to open 3x for ex.

Why is 2x too small? Isn´t it standard, what do I miss here? I open 16-18% in the LJ, I can´t afford to raise more against all those 3bet monkeys

When you open so small you let your opponents 3-bet and call you more preflop. There is a little odd difference between calling a 3x raise and a 2x raise. Many players will call with much more hands than usual because of the smaller sizing. The same goes for 3-bets against us. We must use the same sizing for position, although this is an old concept and it doesn't matter very much at micro stakes (players aren't paying too much attention to this detail).
Personally, I like to go for 3x from EP and 2.5x from IP.

What would be a proper 4bet sizing oop in that spot? AKo is ment to resteal oop and still toasts some of his range. So why go smaller?

In this spot a 4-bet sizing of 2.4x, 2.6x would've done the work as well. Why go smaller? Because we are 4-betting with AK (a semi bluff) and we want our opponents to call more our 4-bet. When we 4-bet larger we increase the chances of our opponents to call and enter into the pot. Also, we must use the same sizing for all of our range that 4-bets. And why go smaller? For the times we completely miss the pot we can afford to fold. When we make the pot grow fast preflop, it is almost impossible to fold later.

3/4 pot? Why fold out his bluffcatchers?

I think that hands that call a large 4-bet preflop and a c-bet flop would hardly fold to a 3/4 continuan bet OTT. Whatever they have, they want to continue and the pot seems to big to be abandoned. The intention OTT is to make the pot grow so we can jam OTR (and villain could not fold to our jam because it invested too much already, so it will have to call with whatever it has).

 

[Funtast]

When you open so small you let your opponents 3-bet and call you more preflop.

Yes I want that with AK.

There is a little odd difference between calling a 3x raise and a 2x raise. Many players will call with much more hands than usual because of the smaller sizing.

Good with AK.

The same goes for 3-bets against us. We must use the same sizing for position, although this is an old concept and it doesn't matter very much at micro stakes (players aren't paying too much attention to this detail).

I already stated that the pool the hand was played in reacts quite passive against 3x. I don't want that with premiums.

Personally, I like to go for 3x from EP and 2.5x from IP.

What you like to do isn't relevant. It depends on your range. I raise often so I have to raise smaller.

In this spot a 4-bet sizing of 2.4x, 2.6x would've done the work as well. Why go smaller? Because we are 4-betting with AK (a semi bluff)

AK 4bet a semi bluff? What are you drinking sir? Only 12 of 1326 combos have us beat.

and we want our opponents to call more our 4-bet.

With a Semi Bluff? OOP. No not at all.

When we 4-bet larger we increase the chances of our opponents to call and enter into the pot.

Makes no sense.

Also, we must use the same sizing for all of our range that 4-bets. And why go smaller? For the times we completely miss the pot we can afford to fold.

And for the times we hit we win more. And we take down the pot pre more often. And OOP we want to reduce SPR.

When we make the pot grow fast preflop, it is almost impossible to fold later.

Simply wrong.

I think that hands that call a large 4-bet preflop and a c-bet flop would hardly fold to a 3/4 continuan bet OTT. Whatever they have, they want to continue and the pot seems to big to be abandoned.

That would be awesome. But that's totally wrong.

The intention OTT is to make the pot grow so we can jam OTR (and villain could not fold to our jam because it invested too much already, so it will have to call with whatever it has).

You are clearly playing a different playerpool. In my world noone calls 3/4 pot OTT in a 4bet pot without having AQ+ here. And noone ever calls 3 streets heavy duty with a bluffcatcher. No polar no bluffcatch.
I don't know what limits or players you play but you advices are not applicable to me.
Sorry

 

[Funtast]

As played, I check and bluff catch.

What bluffs exacly do you think he can have here? I think his range is full of things that I beat and that happily check back.

Definitely size up your PFR, I would never go less than 2.5x in this position.

I only know the concept of sizing up at CO and BU. Why would you size up from LJ where so many players could have a better hand?

Also Cbet larger, I would aim for 15BB.

Why fold his bluffcatchers? What do I win by that?

An alternative would be to induce bluffing if you think he is aggressive enough by just X/C'ing and hoping he fires off three barrels to get you to fold KK.

😆 Yeah sure.

It will help balance your range against regs like this.

Balance my Range? I have a range advantage and the nutadvantage. Checking here would be terrible since it looks super strong.

 

[Station_Master]

Some interesting chat here on open sizes, 3bet sizes, 4bet sizes etc. Just a suggestion but maybe create some threads in the cash game forum to discuss some of these individually and get wider input too.

I didnt comment on the preflop sizing previously, personally I think 2x is OK, however at 2NL I would go larger as you are not getting 3bet that much anyway (so you can invest more without having to fold it a good chunk of the time).

I've gradually sized down my opens as I have moved up in stakes.

 

[Funtast]

Some interesting chat here on open sizes, 3bet sizes, 4bet sizes etc. Just a suggestion but maybe create some threads in the cash game forum to discuss some of these individually and get wider input too.

Yeah it got out of line for sure.

I didnt comment on the preflop sizing previously, personally I think 2x is OK, however at 2NL I would go larger as you are not getting 3bet that much anyway (so you can invest more without having to fold it a good chunk of the time).

On PS and GG there is a lot of 3betting going on. Real 3bet/fold monkeys everywhere.

I've gradually sized down my opens as I have moved up in stakes.

Yeah. The less you OR the bigger the edge post and the more you can open.
I love the nits with only 2x open btw. You can draw on them - hard!

 

[Funtast]

Some interesting chat here on open sizes, 3bet sizes, 4bet sizes etc. Just a suggestion but maybe create some threads in the cash game forum to discuss some of these individually and get wider input too.

Yeah it got out of line for sure.

I didnt comment on the preflop sizing previously, personally I think 2x is OK, however at 2NL I would go larger as you are not getting 3bet that much anyway (so you can invest more without having to fold it a good chunk of the time).

On PS and GG there is a lot of 3betting going on. Real 3bet/fold monkeys everywhere.

I've gradually sized down my opens as I have moved up in stakes.

Yeah. The less you OR the bigger the edge post and the more you can open

 

[Mac557]

What bluffs exacly do you think he can have here? I think his range is full of things that I beat and that happily check back.

He can certainly have lots of things you beat, maybe he turns 0% of this range into bluffs and they are all either value bets with > than your hand and check backs with < than your hand.

I only know the concept of sizing up at CO and BU. Why would you size up from LJ where so many players could have a better hand?

Perhaps I'm doing it wrong, but the logic I used to go by back when I played was: open larger with your stronger ranges, so naturally I would 3x everywhere except the BTN/CO where it was 2.5x. I don't think doing it the other way around makes as much sense as you will be putting more money in and building a bigger pot with your wider ranges.

😆 Yeah sure.

Balance my Range? I have a range advantage and the nutadvantage. Checking here would be terrible since it looks super strong.

OK. Then I assume you are Cbetting your entire range OTF + OTT? What do you do with KK/QQ here after you 4Bet and he calls and the board comes A-high? If your stance is that the river is a bet 100% of the time with your AK/AA then how does your KK/QQ play this without deviating from your nutted triple barrel line?

I think it is perfectly fine to check the flop to induce. It means villain cannot exploit your underpairs so easily without giving up value to the top of your range. With many hands in a 4Bet pot where you have the nut advantage you are unlikely to be getting 3 streets of value anyway, so there is little difference between value OTF/OTT and value OTT/OTR (though he can pick up equity on the turn that makes him continue with an even wider range).

Also, I don't know how to go back to the quote about folding out his bluffcatchers with your larger flop sizing, but if villain is always folding to 15BB but not 11BB with that part of his range - and you are always triple barrelling - then it will balance out because you get more value from his non-bluffcatchers on later streets by having a larger pot anyway, no?

But hey, I could be totally wrong. Your logic does make sense, - I would just play it differently is all.

In the end what happened?

 

[Funtast]

He can certainly have lots of things you beat, maybe he turns 0% of this range into bluffs and they are all either value bets with > than your hand and check backs with < than your hand.

I bet low on flop and turn to keep all his weaker aces and some JJ+ in. There are no possible draws on the flop except 4 combos of 67s. I dont think he turns any of his value hands into a bluff by the river often enough to justify checking.

Perhaps I'm doing it wrong, but the logic I used to go by back when I played was: open larger with your stronger ranges, so naturally I would 3x everywhere except the BTN/CO where it was 2.5x. I don't think doing it the other way around makes as much sense as you will be putting more money in and building a bigger pot with your wider ranges.

Well yes! And no! The point is the number of players left to act and the potodds they have to call. As LJ is oop vs HJ, CO and BU those 3bets still hurt a lot of your range.
As BU you aren't concerned of that. But what might concern you is that BB calls you with 60% of his hands having great potodds if only 2x OR pre.

OK. Then I assume you are Cbetting your entire range OTF + OTT? What do you do with KK/QQ here after you 4Bet and he calls and the board comes A-high? If your stance is that the river is a bet 100% of the time with your AK/AA then how does your KK/QQ play this without deviating from your nutted triple barrel line?

With KK/QQ I check and fold because he has me beat a lot of the time at this point. No reason to herocall on a dry board.

I think it is perfectly fine to check the flop to induce.

Would you check/call or check/raise/jam? I mean I would never go check call with KK-JJ here since on any turn I would have to fold anyway?

It means villain cannot exploit your underpairs so easily without giving up value to the top of your range. With many hands in a 4Bet pot where you have the nut advantage you are unlikely to be getting 3 streets of value anyway

That's why I polarized. I could also do OTF big, check/jam turn - jam river.

, so there is little difference between value OTF/OTT and value OTT/OTR (though he can pick up equity on the turn that makes him continue with an even wider range).

The thing is there is not much equity to pick with that flop. Yeah suited hands can pick up a draw as any broadway combo but thats like 11BB for a maybe draw..

Also, I don't know how to go back to the quote about folding out his bluffcatchers with your larger flop sizing, but if villain is always folding to 15BB but not 11BB with

I think the difference between 15BB and 11BB is quite a lot, because of the possible runouts on turn and river.

that part of his range - and you are always triple barrelling

I am not tripple barreling if I dont have a Big Hand. I check the river in that line if I am weak.

- then it will balance out because you get more value from his non-bluffcatchers on later streets by having a larger pot anyway, no?

The whole point is I thought I have 95% the nuts. I also thought that the best way to extract maximum value is to play the weak weak shove polarize game on that dry board. When he called the turn I was pretty sure he has an A+ or at least a Bluffcatcher like JJ-QQ if ambicious. I also thought that the diamond on the river was a good candidate to jam because it's so unlikely for me to have a flush there.

But hey, I could be totally wrong. Your logic does make sense, - I would just play it differently is all.

I think often it's not between right and wrong but between good reasoning or no reasoning. Both can be right or wrong if your reasoning sucks.

In the end what happened?

Oh I jammed river and he flipped pocket tens.