The Leveling Wars, Episode I: BTN Squeezes Light versus EP
SB: 267.5 BB
BB: 38.25 BB
UTG: 360.25 BB
CO: 61 BB
Hero (BTN): 200.5 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5c 4c
UTG raises to 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 10 BB, fold
Flop : (27.5 BB, 2 players) As 9s 2s
UTG checks, Hero bets 10.75 BB, UTG calls 10.75 BB
Turn : (49 BB, 2 players) 3h
UTG checks, Hero bets 35 BB, UTG calls 35 BB
River : (119 BB, 2 players) 6c
UTG checks, Hero bets 62.5 BB, UTG raises to 250 BB, Hero calls 80.25 BB and is all-in
Not a very known player. His stats seems reggy. not happy with the river call at all but not happy folding either without better reads
Hello there Alucard, thank you for posting a fantastic hand for analysis.
Preflop:
Squeezing preflop with 5c4c and other similar combos versus EP is on the loose side of your range, no problem if you know how to navigate safely postflop, in position with this part of your Squeeze range.
If UTG is on the nitty side, opening just 10% hands from UTG you will have 32%
equity preflop for such a Squeeze.
If UTG is opening only 15%, you will have 34% equity preflop for your Squeeze.
Finally, if UTG is very loose and opening 20% or more you will have 35% equity preflop for your Squeeze:
Summarizing: both players being deep stacked is very dangerous to Squeeze weak combos versus UTG, because when you hit a flush or a straight you will be dominated by better flushes and straights and you are going to lose a ton of value.
This is a reverse implied
odds scenario, where no matter what you hit, Villain can always hit a better hand than you and you will be almost forced to put +200 blinds onto the table.
Flop:
As I said before, you have a gutter and nothing more! Your equity is very poor in a scenario like this and many times when you make your straight on the Turn you will be already dominated by flushes.
If we are going to c-bet this flop okay, but we should go for at maximum 1/3 pot. Although I believe that check-folding is better. (Our hand has equity but on the other side it also has reverse implied odds given the monotone flop).
Villain UTG is not going to fold anything right now, but even his bluffs are strong when called in the flop: Villain doesn't have AsKs, but Villain still have all the over-combos of spades, since you have none.
Villain UTG can have Ks, Qs, and Js, those are not going to fold to a 1/3 c-bet flop.
UTG can have AA, 99 and 22 and those are not going to fold. When you miss your gutshot on the Turn what is your plan? Keep firing seeking fold equity? Hummm..
You bet 1/3 and Villain calls with all of its range?
Turn:
Do you have any ideia what possibily UTG could've called you with in the flop?
It seems that when UTG calls you on the flop it cappes its range for TPTK, Sets, Two Pair, flushes and TP+FD). Nonetheless, some of these could check-raise for protection given the monotone texture, however also dangerous with no combo of spades.
IT might have called you with TPTK and Two Pair (AK, AQ, A9, A2) and now in the turn these hands would have a lot of trouble to continue paying 2/3 pot, but this is a very cheap bet in the turn.
Another hands that are going to have problems calling 2/3 pot are AA, KK, QQ, 99 and 22, because everyone is seeing how connected the board is. Of course that Villain would call more with the pocket pairs that contain a spade on its combos.
Only a very weak regular at 100 NLHE would be calling turn again without anything that is not a flush or a straight, or some spade combo + XY)
UTG knows that you know that UTG's range is very strong when it calls the flop: it represents AA, KK, the spades and the flush itself: flushes would have no reason to be raising this flop or raising turn.
When UTG calls turn it show even more strength.
River
If I were in UTG's shoes, and let's suppose that I don't have a flush, I don't have a straight, but I have very strong value hands on my range: in a river like this I can get with flushes, straights (a fewer times), my sets AA, 99, 22, my two pair A9, A2, A3, KK I would have folded or floated turn, QQ I would have called flop to check-fold turn, AK I could have called with the combos with the Ks, because I would be drawing to the flush nuts.
IF I were on UTG's shoes I would go into a river like this godlike strong: my only bluffs on a river like this are the Flush Draws of Spades (with Ks, Qs, Js at maximum).
So, when it comes another barrel from the player in position and I have called flop and turn with my value/floating range, I would fold part of this range, called the value range and bluff in a low frequency depening on the Villain (I would never do it against you because I know you would insta-call flushes, straights, sets, and sometimes etc).
Because we are deep stacked, and I have called flop and turn and I have the King of Spades, I can REPRESENT the FLUSHES a lot! I have a ton of flushes on this river and if I hold the King of Spades I would certainly check-raise jam this river, where I have all the nuts, almost always, and put a godamn strong pressure into BTN/Hero's range. Because KK with a Ks lost its showdown value on a river like this and then UTG can turn a value hand into a bluff, given that both are deep stacked.
Looking to the
pot odds, we need to right 1 out of 3 times, however we don't believe that BTN has a lot of bluffs too, I actually would never believe that BTN would get into a river like this with more than 28% of bluffs in its, never, it simply doesn't happen, so I do not have good odds for calling with my entire value range, except flushes:
I can fold here AA, 99, 22 very easy, because when BTN triple barrels a drawie board like this it is representing only the Flushes and only the Straights and BTN knows that I know that BTN knows.
It is a very bold move of UTG to shove all-in here, and the only hands that go all in here are the nutted flushes (A Regular will present more King of Spades, unknowns maybe Qs.) and the missed nutted flush draws of Spades.
However, when UTG goes all in on this river, representing the nutted flushes, it puts a lot a pressure into BTN's range that now:
A) Cannot simply call with any flush without at least an overcard
B) Cannot simply call with a straight because UTG's line is screaming the nut flush
C) Cannot simply call with anything under a straight
However, if you have a very good reading on Villain okay, but it is very balanced to go all-in on this river because BTN would be forced to fold more than 90% of times on scenarios like this, and some players are going to be overfolding straights in a scenario like that:
Remember that if UTG is a balanced player, you will never know when it has a bluff or the nuts on a river like this and if you call with dominated hands, you are simply "
guessing" too much.
How were the pot odds at the moment UTG went all-in? You need to be right 1 out of 5 times to make this call breakeven, however, I don't believe that UTG is bluffing here 1 out of 5 times (does UTG really have more than 20% of bluffs on this River?)
UTG would never check-raise a river like this with Two Pair, Sets or even straights, because those are value hands that could be calling in a low X frequency to avoid being overbluffed. IF UTG is raising its value hands on a river like this, in a very deep stacked pot, put a note on it, because this is the regular WHALE.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa