$100 NLHE 6-max: Can I continue here?

[WVHillbilly]

This has been an entertaining thread.

For the sake of argument I began calculations accounting for 10% fold equity, which is extremely generous given the lines taken by the players in the hand.

Now we need to calculate the calling range. My personal range is (77, 99, TT, T9) because weaker hands such as JT-AT either raise much more or flat call. The other hands (of which there aren't many) that call the PF raise then raise/fold the flop go into the fold equity calculations.

AcJc V's this range wins 38.025% of the time, we invest $92.50 and the final pot is $220, 38.025% of which will be ours which = $83.65 per hand. 92.50 - 83.65 = 8.85 so any time we push all in and get called we lose $8.85 per hand

Fold equity nets us $47.50 per hand so after 100 hands

fold equity nets us $475 profit
getting called loses us $796.50 meaning a total loss of $321.5 or 3.2BB's per hand

even if we tinker with the fold equity figures we still need need about 15% just to break even on our investment.

We break even on our investment by just flat calling the raise on the flop. Anything we get in after this point is pure profit except for the time we hit our flush then the set re-draws to the boat but that only happens (8/47)*(10/46)% of the time.

So what do you guys think. There is clearly some room for debate over fold equity % and the hand ranges like, he might take this line with QT or something? I really do think there is little to no fold equity in this hand and like I said, the 10% was very generous

I think your FE estimation is probably close although, with his insane AF, going a little higher there wouldn't be out of the question imo.

I also think you need to add just a few more hands to your estimation of his range. Specifically KcQc and and let's say 1/2 the time he flats QQ on the BTN (for his sake will give him only QQ hands with the Qc).

It's very close but shoving is fun!

 

[Deco]

My personal range is (77, 99, TT, T9)

I'd like to add
89s
78s
88
AT
KTs
QTs
JTs
KcQc
QJs
AIR!

Yes the JTs etc are under question as this guys tight but he's on the button. In my experience there is a strong likelihood even a tight player would play his suited broadways here.
We just need him to not be holding a set a very small % of the time for this to be profitable and the range above although abit wide is to convey this.

If this guy was in the blinds
The AF stat is in fact Aggression frequency.
The donk bet was reasonably sized.
Then I may consider calling.

 

[WossaPotOddz]

Deco - I pretty much agree with that range but AF has to correlate with VPIP and the VPIP is very low in this hand so even though it's a high number it's not conclusive to maniacal tendancies. It just means villain plays very tight and doesn't like flat calling. But yes that range seems about right.

But which of those go into the range of calling the push all in and which go into the fold? And what % allocation do you give to each hand in the range for likeliness? You can't just say, "his range is wider therefore I'm right" unless you think our villain is going to take the raise/call line with air?

Wv - QQ is like an auto 3-bet with his stats but KcQc can factor into his raise/call range sure. Not a very high % though and yes, semi-bluff shoving is very fun, lol.

Rogue - Yeah there's not enough fold equity to compete with the flat call line. If we hit the 12out turn and bet half pot ($30) then villain is calling his set range every time which averages $5 profit per hand minus the defecit from boat re-draws which shouldn't be too much. Probably averages out at $3-4 per hand profit + whatever we can get villain to call on the river if it doesn't pair.

 

[Deco]

Deco - I pretty much agree with that range but AF has to correlate with VPIP and the VPIP is very low in this hand so even though it's a high number it's not conclusive to maniacal tendancies. It just means villain plays very tight and doesn't like flat calling. But yes that range seems about right.

But which of those go into the range of calling the push all in and which go into the fold? And what % allocation do you give to each hand in the range for likeliness? You can't just say, "his range is wider therefore I'm right" unless you think our villain is going to take the raise/call line with air?

It all depends on our opponent ability to calculate outs and deduce if he has odds to call.
Even if he intends on calling with the entire range I listed were a 50.2% favourite.

However that is the worst case scenario. I shan't expect that and expect to be getting plenty of lucrative fold equity from most the hands that aren't sets.

 

[WossaPotOddz]

I give up

 

[Deco]

I give up

!!!!!!!!Muhahaha I win!!!!!!!!!





Just Kiddin

 

[Deco]

Nah seriously I hope you didn't think I was belittling you or competing etc.
I merely wanted to put fourth an explanation to why I'd make the shove as you had perfectly valid questions on why to do so.

and heck it isnt a I'm right your wrong thing.
Truth be told my predicted range is horrificly wide whilst yours is too narrow.

Whilst the above post is my immature sense of humour
(you should see the things that comeout of the chatbox when I suckout/cooler people)