$100 NLHE 6-max: Facing turn raise / river jam with over pair, paired board

[c0rnBr34d]

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 101.5 BB VP 26 / PR 22 / AF 2 / 3B 9 (400 hands)
UTG: 117.98 BB
Hero (MP): 73.49 BB VP 25 / PR 21 / AF 2 / 3B 7 (90 hands)
CO: 97.5 BB
BTN: 127.7 BB
SB: 117.05 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♥ Q♠

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 7♥ 7♦ 3♠
BB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Turn: (9.5 BB, 2 players) T♠
BB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, BB raises to 14 BB, Hero calls 9 BB

River: (37.5 BB, 2 players) 6♣
BB bets 83 BB and is all-in, Hero???

Nasty spot. I may look fishy since I didn't top up. I usually don't let the stack go below 80 BB but I don't mind playing a stack down a few BB and don't use auto top up. I think the turn is definitely a call but the river seems like a fold. It's a single raised pot so V has 7x, 98, and set mined boats for value. We don't block anything useful. We actually block the missed flush draw that we want him to have. Clear fold? Or do we have to look this up at some frequency to bluff catch missed draws and over valued Tx?

 

[eetenor]

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 101.5 BB VP 26 / PR 22 / AF 2 / 3B 9 (400 hands)
UTG: 117.98 BB
Hero (MP): 73.49 BB VP 25 / PR 21 / AF 2 / 3B 7 (90 hands)
CO: 97.5 BB
BTN: 127.7 BB
SB: 117.05 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♥ Q♠

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 7♥ 7♦ 3♠
BB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Turn: (9.5 BB, 2 players) T♠
BB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, BB raises to 14 BB, Hero calls 9 BB

River: (37.5 BB, 2 players) 6♣
BB bets 83 BB and is all-in, Hero???

Nasty spot. I may look fishy since I didn't top up. I usually don't let the stack go below 80 BB but I don't mind playing a stack down a few BB and don't use auto top up. I think the turn is definitely a call but the river seems like a fold. It's a single raised pot so V has 7x, 98, and set mined boats for value. We don't block anything useful. We actually block the missed flush draw that we want him to have. Clear fold? Or do we have to look this up at some frequency to bluff catch missed draws and over valued Tx?

Thank U 4 Posting

So your V has similar numbers to you so were you thinking they would play their ranges just like you would?
Would they be thinking about your ranges in this spot similarly?

So preflop fine

Flop paired board gut shot draw and back doors only.

You bet 2 bb expecting to get called. Why?

What range does the BB expect you to bet. Does it include any 7's or 3's.
Who has the nut advantage here?
Does the V expect to be able to get you to fold made over pairs?
Would they try to get those hands to fold in error?
Would this V be slow playing preflop AA-99 here? AX suited just call pre?

How many streets of value did you expect to get and from what range?

Turn brings a flush draw you bet 5 into 9 in your game is this indicative of strength?
If so is your V less likely to turn A3 spades into a bluff?
Would your V be check raising for value with Tx?
If so why would they shove river with that Tx expecting to get value from what?

What is the V trying to get value from with this line exactly? If they have Tx or better?

Does your V expect you to pay off with an over pair? Is that common in your player pool?

The BB play screams "I have a 7 or better" yet you should not have better than a 7 so why would they expect you to pay off?

The turn check raise gives you 3-1 odds therefore you should be calling a wider range of hands including overs and flush draws but the river shove for value is only targeting AA KK. QQ? would this player make this kind of error? The error is of course not enough value hands to bluffs for this shove to be balanced.

When we bet our value range- it is a value range because it can be called by worse- if we expect only 2 hand combos to call our value shoves we would not be shoving all our full houses and all our 7's on this runout correctly.

So the question is what mistake would this V be making more often- over bluffing or over value betting?


Hope this helps

 

[puzzlefish]

So is this $1 or $100 NLHE? At lower levels this is almost never a bluff. Believe it or not. This is how players play when they get the nuts. Unless you have numerous hands of history with this player where they are overbluffing, this is just one of those spots where you just don't beat very much.

 

[300HPGOD]

These are tough spots. First thing I noticed was villain has a 9% 3 bet which is a little higher than normal and they did not 3 bet here. That starts me to think that they have middling connected cards here like 89,76,109,78, etc. That is just my initial reaction which could be way off but I find it is much easier to go through a hand if you start ranging an opponent with their every move and not just when they make a big move and then have to backtrack.

On the flop I would bet as well just to get the pot going. I like slightly higher than 2BB as if they have nothing they will fold anyway but many villains will tend to float on boards like these and you can get a little more value over time when you go a little bigger.

Turn I would bet as you did here but when we get check raised I now go back to the range that I put villain on pre flop. Almost all those middling connector cards now have hit something whether it is a made hand or a draw. I would call as you did but my plan would be to be cautious on the river if I could be.

Once we dont fold this turn (not saying we should) then I think better villains will know what we have here and will be able to decipher that a large part of our range is overpairs. That is important because when I see the river bet sizing I think its even more polarized than I normally would think with that sizing which is pretty polarized to begin with. However, if I really think villain has a good idea of what I have do they think I would fold QQ+ here? They have played with us for 400 hands so they have a decent idea of how we play and we should know how we play. So I would ask myself how often do I fold in these spots and translate that to what they think of me. In the end since my best guess is villain knows what we have here often they are not bluffing into us but believe we call with big pairs here and look them up. I would fold here and at least look at the bright side of things that this was not a very big pot as far as how much we invested in it.

 

[John A]

Other than missed turned flush draw, there are few bluffs in his hand. Yes it's a good bluff spot for villain as you won't have nearly as many 7x in your hand as he does. I'd fold river, and in the future if you think your opponent is capable here, then you should be going for 2 streets of value instead of potentially 3.

 

[gustav197poker]

The villain's line is not compatible with a superior overpair. We should only fear a connective 8-9s combo, but that is highly unlikely in V range, as a solid player should fold more often preflop with 8-9o versus a MP position of closed range. If we add 3 suitable combos: 3-7s + 7-Ts + 6-7s that represents really little value for the villain. With QQ + I am calling in this river. JJ is a more standard fold for this texture IMO.
Greetings.