Full Ring
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 10/10/1
Hero in LoJack with KT of clubs. Villain to Hero's right UTG+2.
UTG and UTG+1 both fold. UTG+2 raises 3x BB (.30). Hero reraises 3x pot (.90). Cutoff and UTG+2 call. Everybody else folds.
Flop comes 5c, 8h, 7c. Unlikely Villain has just one six. Maybe 2, tho. Or, a big pair.
Villain checks. Hero bets pot (2.70). Cutoff folds. Villain calls. Heads up.
Turn is 5d. Villain checks, Hero bets pot (7.80). Villain raises pot (15.60). So, Hero has 9 club outs to beat anything but full house. There's 31.20 in the pot and it costs Hero 7.80 to call. When reviewing later, pot odds indicate this is a call but in actuality I panicked a bit and folded.
I realize I probably should not have played this hand in the first place but since I did, I tried to be aggressive. Under the circumstances, was the play a Fold or a Call?
Hi there charliej, thank you for sharing your hand.
So, you provide us stats of VPIP 10, PFR 10 and AF 1. With stats like this I would assume that Villain is calling you with 10% range, except KK+ and AKs: those it would be 4-betting in a high frequency:
QQ-55, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KQo
And for the CO, it becomes interesting to call with a lot a
hands, including KK+ and AKs, because of the chance of UTG+2 to squeeze at all. Okay that it will not happen in a high frequency, and most of times CO will have not KK+ and AKs, because the 4-bet here is more interesting because the ranges now are very capped.
It will depend on the player: some players are going to trap more KK+ and AKs here and others are going to 3-bet more. Let's assume CO doesn't have KK+ and AKs in its range when it decides to call but a little wider range (in the best case scenario for us in the Lojack):
QQ-22, AQs-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AJo+, KQo (15.23%)
We know that CO shows a lot of strenght by calling here with UTG having the last action and capped range.
When we decide to 3-bet UTG+2, our
equity, versus UTG+2 range would be 41.60%. If the UTG+2 folds to 3-bet even better because KTs will not play very well against UTG's range, even in position, in a 3-bet pot: your Kx and Tx that hit the flop would be mostly dominated by UTG+2 range with KJ, KQ, AK sometimes, AT, etc.
So, in a situation like this where UTG+2 opens 3x, we 3-bet 3x in the Lojack and the CO Cold Calls in the middle of our businnes, and UTG+2 having 10% calling range and CO having 15% calling range, our preflop equity would be 30%.
UTG+2's equity would be 37% and CO's equity would be 33%. We are not so good but also not so bad in a breakeven scenario 3-handed, out of position.
The Flop
It comes very good for us with 5c8h7c, now we have a flush draw and two overcards: but remember that our overcards would be dominated when we hit them in the turn. and both CO and UTG will connect with part of their mid-low range and they will continue paying at least one street of value.
Now I don't understand your bet sizing in the flop. Why did you bet pot here? I mean, which other hands, in a situation like this could be betting pot right now?
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, and 99. You don't have a lot of 77, 55 and 88 3-betting versus UTG. You can and should sometimes 3-bet these hands versus UTG, in a 6-Max table. At Full Ring I would simply call down these hands.
Other hands that you could possibily be betting pot are the flush draws and the straight draws. However, you don't have many straight draws in a flop like this: T9s would be your best combo that could be 3-betting UTG and you will not have a lot of them.
So, let's suppose you have AA with the ace of clubs or KK with a king of clubs, would you bet 100% pot in a scenario like this? Isn't it too much
bluffing?
For our lucky, CO folds and for our sorrow, UTG+2 calls and we take a turn.
The Turn
The turn comes a 5d and now your equity drops down in the same way your size bets are going up! This 5d is much better for UTG+1 range because now the mid and high pocket pairs are safe: TT+ that UTG+2 will have in a high frequency.
We don't see many NITs opening 77 and 88 from UTG+2, but IT IS in its Cold Call 3-bet range as we assigned above! UTG has these combos of 77, 88, 99, and UTG also can have the combos of Ace of Clubs, except AcKc because you block and AcTc. UTG+2 can still have AcXc in its range.
Once you decided to make the pot grows so fast and quick, this should be an insta-call! You should not fold here man, having 9 outs for the river, I don't know if they are clean outs but okay.
Moral of the story: don't
bluff your flush draws or anything like that! It doesn't make any sense to make a 100% pot bet in the flop get called and insist in the turn with a 100% pot? We are bluffing too much here by polarizing our range that much.
If we had AA, KK, AKs would we be doing the same? Coudn't we make smaller bets, check the turn to see a free river and realizes our equity, no, no, no, we must bluff and bluff and then fold just exactly when we get the odds.
You play too much aggressive. Being aggressive it doesn't mean at all that we should not take care of our bet sizings: 1/2 pot or 2/3 pot at maximum would do the work just as a 100% pot did.
However, when you go for a 100% pot bet, a regular (A NIT, your opponent in the hand) will realize that you are polarizing your range too much. And usually is for bluff in situation like this.
If you complete the flush would you go and fire another 100% c-bet pot turn? I believe it is impossible to be profitable like this, betting so high either for value or for bluff.
Your opponent doesn't bluff too much, as we can observe with the Aggression Factor postflop of 1: when it check raises turn upon you, it will only have the nuts. Only is a very strong word, but 97% of times this guy will show up some AA, KK, QQ, or even the full-houses with 77 and 88.
Being aggressive means that we must balance our bets preflop and postflop, either for value or for bluff, not overbetting without any reason trying to get fold equity from a very capped range. Impossible to happen.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
