$10 NLHE 6-max: Unsure play with a set

[TLRoyalFlush]

Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

BTN: 193.5 BB
SB: 100 BB
Hero (BB): 104.4 BB
UTG: 111.5 BB
CO: 125.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5:diamond: 5:spade:

fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 7:diamond: J:diamond: 3:diamond:
Hero checks, BTN bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Turn: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 5:club:
Hero bets 10 BB, BTN calls 10 BB

River: (33.5 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:
Hero checks, BTN bets 60 BB, fold

BTN wins 31.9 BB


1) Should I be 3betting vs btn steal in this situation?
Assuming he has a very wide range (50%+ from the button if he's 30% VPIP?) I can probably expect to get folds from 60% of his btn steal range? My 55 vs his continuing range (top 20% of hands) is then 46.28%.

Since I would have raised 3x to 75c to win 30c, i need to win over 70% to be +EV. Given the above assumptions I would take down the pot 60% of the time or have 46.28% equity vs 40% of his range meaning I would win a total of 78.5% of the time, making this play EV.
Is this correct thinking?

2) Happy with check calling the flop, he could be one and done with non diamond hands or have a high pair against which I still have 38% equity.

3) Im still unsure about donking the turn - I didn't want to risk him checking back with a higher diamond to get a free draw, and feel i could get value off a high pair that might have resisted a turn bet. But then again these hands may well have bet if checked to to which I could have raised.

4) When the diamond comes on the river, it seems like he's only betting here with hands that beat me (a higher diamond) or he's turned his hand into a bluff? Would he really be betting here with a high pair / straight / two pair that I beat? Given the vast quantity of hands with higher diamonds in his range, it seems unlikely that there is enough bluffs (over 40% given the pot odds) to make the call +EV.

Any feedback would be great!

 

[gustav197poker]

I don't understand your turn bet. Possibly your range looks weak from the flop. So for the villain it will be easier to bluff with any two pairs, set, etc. On the river you should defend your small flush, as you have a very weak perceived range.
Greetings.

 

[Sidetracked]

I think that if you're actually folding the river when you make your flush, then your flop call becomes bad.

 

[300HPGOD]

To me this is a spot where we have to range our villain on the flop and probably stick with what we put them on meaning if we think they dont have a flush on the flop we stick with that thinking and if we think they can have a flush on the flop we dont change that thinking on the turn. Also we have to decide on the flop that if we hit a flush later on will it be good or not. On this flop my thinking whether it is right or wrong would be villain usually does not have a flush (due to bet sizing) and probably has one diamond which is most likely the Ace or king of diamonds. With that thinking I would act as though if another diamond comes I am probably beat. Therefore, calling on the flop which I dont mind would have to be because we have a pair and not because we have a pair and a flush draw.

Knowing those thoughts then with turn bringing a set, I want to end the hand here even though I would be foregoing some possible value. My thinking would be that I have the best hand but it is still vulnerable and what it is vulnerable to will not pay me off on the river if it misses. I would be having two paths to ending the hand on the turn in my head in game, one is to bet very large to get a fold or have the draw pay me, the other would be to check raise. If the villain has a one diamond hand I think they check back a lot here. I like the route you took by leading out and leading out large but I think (I can only guess since its hard to know how we would think in the moment) I would bet huge here and do something unorthodox. Maybe an overbet lead here. Maybe it gets the villain to tool out with a draw as well but I am looking for a fold. My reasoning again is that missed draws wont pay me on the river, probably wont bluff to me (but could) and if they get there then I have to put myself in a position to fold a set on the river.

As played on the river I dont like checking here even though I would think I am very likely beat. I would be bet fold here and probably bet something like 33-40% of pot. Yes that is giving up something when I really think Im beat but its possible here I was wrong all along and they call behind with worse. I dont hate your play by any means and think it was a very good fold just think I like bet folding a bit better.