This is a discussion on $10 NLHE 6-max: TT on BTN within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Trial ran out on my hud... will def. pay for it after work today!
BB- 40 bbs
EP- 100+ bbs
Hero (BTN) 100bbs
.05/.10 cent game
EP raises to .30
I think we mess up on the flop bet, if we bet around 60% we are basicly advertising over pair... so when they jam here (assuming they arent manaic spazzy).... cause I think this is a set or a straight, cause 89s makes this 3Bet call.... if we bet big, we protect our over pair. And less likely to have them check raise as a bluff.... making our fold a lot easier.... but I agree our over pair is good against other over pairs.... but set of 6,5,7 absolutely opens, then flats EP. With the mindset to set hunt.
__________________ Team Bull member 4th place finish Fall League 2018
This is a really bad board for an overpair, so I would probably just check back to be honest. A small bet is ok as well, but when he essentially go all in, you have to fold. You have the worst possible overpair, since 88 and 99 have straight potential, and you dont block any hands, that do this for value.
Very little flop bet, villain interprets that as a speculative hand. That is why it strongly blocks all scales, which would make you a winner in the future streets.
Maybe he would have bet between 2/3 and 3/4 on the flop, to generate the inverse effect.
On the other hand, your pocket is exceeded by 52% of total older couples.
If the villain continues with a standard 3bet, we could try to catch him on the turn, if a soft street appears as a Js.
But if 3bet is too big, we should probably leave that place. Since its range must contain some set that exceeds us.
yeah I usually ch flop here, he has a much stronger range on this board and your entire range is going to want to keep the pot smaller. As played idk reads would be helpful but it's going to be pretty close either way. Can't be the end of the world stacking an overpair in a 3b pot but even when we do have the best hand villain will have lots of equity and when we're beat we're drawing to very few outs (backdoor outs to 89, 2 outs to sets, and 5 then 8 outs against 2p), so I wouldn't really hate folding to his raise either particularly if you haven't seen him get out of line as I wouldn't expect most 10nl regs to be bluffing a very wide range here with no equity.
55+, AJo+, QJs+, KJs+, AKs. All the suited hands being clubs. 88 combos of hands.
You have 46% equity against that range. Your CB was too small - showed weakness. He is easily over betting here with a flush dr. You can't call his all-in raise, but you could have bet bigger in the first place.
More is lost by indecision, than wrong decision.
You could just call Ts preflop (not that horrible to raise but i wouldn't do it). But on that flop it's an easy fold, maybe he does not have 7s or Js like you said but there are alot of hands that beat you or have alot equity against your hand
When I started playing 6 max NL cash games, all the places I was studying (Card Runners, Deuces Cracked etc) stated that set mining in 3 bet pots was inherently bad. From what I've seen in the last few years, I think that set mining in 3 bet pots can be very profitable. With regfish thinking that barreling off in 3 bet pots with AK every time is great and 'GTO' etc etc, it seems much easier to get value if you do flop a set. So...55, 66, and 77 seem very possible holdings for the BB given his play here.
Any stats / reads on EP? At 100 BB effective we aren't giving odds to set mine but that doesn't mean V is folding his small pairs. Interesting spot, I'm probably a bit of a station but given we 3b pre and almost never have a straight and very few flush draws Vs sizing seems unwarranted. One of the side effects of downbetting is also inducing spaz. Hard to decide on this one, I see why you timed out. I can't fault either way. I don't mind mixing in 1/3 sizing but in general our hand is fairly vulnerable, would prefer to size up flop.