$10 NLHE 6-max: River Fold?

[AcesUTGFold]

Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players

UTG: $12.00 (120 bb)
MP: $7.64 (76 bb)
CO (Hero): $15.35 (154 bb)
BU: $12.93 (129 bb)
SB: $12.00 (120 bb)
BB: $15.61 (156 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with J♠ K♠
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 players fold, BB calls $0.30, MP calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) 8♦ J♦ K♦ (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $1.13, BB calls $1.13, MP folds

Turn: ($3.51) 2♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.94, BB calls $3.94

River: ($11.39) T♣ (2 players)
BB bets $10.14 (all-in), CO (Hero) folds


Board: K♦J♦8♦ 2♥ T♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 35.71% 35.71% 0.00% { KsJs }
MP3 64.29% 64.29% 0.00% { AdTd, QdTd, Ad9d, Qd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, Qd7d, Td7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, Qd6d, 8d6d, Ad5d, Qd5d, Ad4d, Qd4d, Ad3d, Qd3d, Ad2d, Qd2d, KTo, JTo }

I don't know how good this hand range estimate of mine is. If it were, I would even have to call after pot odds (if I have calculated it correctly).
So my question is the fold on the river OK?

 

[gustav197poker]

Possibly this villain wasn't bluffing the river.
However, the river card doesn't really change the ranges too much. Here probably a hand like AKo could become a bluff, when he has the A of diamonds, but there are only 2 combos left so this is not very expected.
It's hard to think of V turning a set into a bluff when he's had his chance to do so on earlier streets, but perhaps if you suspect his biggest aggression is coming on the river, this could be possible.
But if you think this villain is a fish, most of the time you will be behind some hand that he improved, like a gutshot now turned into a straight.
Greetings.

 

[AcesUTGFold]

Thank you for your help.
I think the fold here should be the better decision in the long run.

 

[liuouhgkres]

I think river is very close. If you think villain is aggressive, then it's call, fold otherwise. That aside, I don't like your large bet on the flop. You don't want to build a huge pot with two pair on a flush board, because by the time it gets to the river, you will be against a flush most of the time. Bet small on flush boards.

 

[300HPGOD]

The river decision to me comes down to how good do we think villain is and how much of a thinking player are they? If we dont have a strong read on them then its a fold but if we know they are thinking, competent and read hands fairly well (I know this is 10NL so we cant go overboard with it) we can at least consider possibly calling. The reason why I say all this is what is mentioned in the post above. Your flop bet is not good here since its too big. You bet way too large and when I see that on the flop on a suited board I think they never have the flush. If you did flop the flush here and most of your raises pre would be higher flushes, would you be bombing the flop with it? I doubt it, you would be trying to get value and taking the best approach to try to get 3 streets. When you bet this big on the flop you are capping your range when you are going against opponents who are thinking in range terms. All this comes into play on the river since villain in strongly thinking you do not have a flush can go all in as they did as a bluff. Any hand you have here is a hard call when you dont have the flush. Again, if you think villain isnt on that level to think about ranges in that way then its an easy fold given the bluffs just arent there.

I doubt villain has a set since we block most of them and highly doubt they would jam river with it and be turning it into a bluff when they know you dont have the flush. One pair and even two pair hands will have a hard time calling two streets of basically pot bets so it isnt that either plus we block a lot of two pair hands too. Its all flush or nothing here and the common player will not have bluffs here, only the thinking ones that are playing your cards and not their own.