$10 NLHE 6-max: QQ vs loose aggressive

[Mercurius]

Interested in the below hand as played - I've reviewed it a couple of times and swing between it being the right play or the wrong play!!

Context on players: UTG (VPIP 25%; PR 25%; 3Bet 10%) and MP (VPIP 31%; PR 20%; 3Bet 11%).

I felt both players were opening too wide and 3Betting too regularly. While I don't love QQ against an UTG open and MP 3Bet, I don't think this is a calling spot so it was open 4Bet or fold for me here.

The shove from UTG wasn't ideal, but with the call from MP I felt the pot odds couldn't be that far off my equity and given the perceived looseness of the players I felt it was a marginal call.

Thoughts?

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $15.06 (151 bb)
MP: $10.61 (106 bb)
CO (Hero): $13.61 (136 bb)
BU: $10.00 (100 bb)
SB: $10.00 (100 bb)
BB: $7.37 (74 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with Q♣ Q♥
UTG raises to $0.25, MP 3-bets to $0.90, Hero 4-bets to $2, 3 players fold, UTG 5-bets to $15.06 (all-in), MP calls $9.71 (all-in), Hero calls $11.61 (all-in)

 

[300HPGOD]

Let me start by saying that assuming the stats you have on villains are from only 6 max tables, I dont think their stats show they are raising all that wide. 25/25 seems like a solid player's stats in 6 max. Would be a hair loose in a full ring game but fit in nicely imo to a 6 max game. 31/20 is loose but it is not crazy loose in 6 max and same goes for their 3 betting %s. They are high but not maniacal. Not sure how they were both playing in the moment at the table but I dont think the stats makes them loose and crazy necessarily so that will affect how I would range them to how you potentially ranged them.

As far as the hand goes this does come down to math and the ranges that we assign villain 1 and villain two. If my math is correct we would be calling $11.61 to win $28.32 since villain has us covered slightly. That's 2.44 to 1 or we have to win 1 in 3.44 times for 29% equity. Next comes the ranging of villains but we also have to factor in our image. I would assume since you said they opened too much that you were not thinking you opened too much which I will put into their thoughts as well. We are cold 4 betting here so I cant see any villain thinking we are light which means any 5 bet over that has a near zero chance of being a bluff. So what would villain 5 bet is what you have to come up with here and I personally dont think JJ even does this. We have two queens so its very unlikely either villain has the other 2. That leaves KK, AA, and AK. AK is possible but I dont think its as probable as AA and KK. That has nothing to do with combos but just my thinking that certain players will call AK here where most if not all players are raising or jamming KK and AA. I feel overwhelmingly here you are up against it and I havent even figured in the overcalling villain yet.

I would be folding this being fairly certain I did the right thing since I eliminated JJ and worse and figured bluffing is near never happening. However, we only need 29% here and if you were up against a single AA or KK you would have about 19%. Factor in some AKs and you get closer to the 29% needed. It is two players though so if it is a AA vs KK vs QQ spot you are only 15%. Villain 2 can still have a hand here too since they did not overcall pre but put in their 3 bet and are calling off a jam. I believe with all that said there will be some times you are ahead here (AK vs AK, QQ) but its not enough and in the long run folding is better. I will say though its probably not the worst call in the world but just one that will lose you money over time.

 

[liuouhgkres]

Easy fold to 4bet. Even loose players at NL10 4bet and 5bet very tight. They will show KK+ most of the time.

 

[GreenDaddy1]

Tend to agree. Sigh fold.

 

[Mercurius]

Let me start by saying that assuming the stats you have on villains are from only 6 max tables, I dont think their stats show they are raising all that wide. 25/25 seems like a solid player's stats in 6 max. Would be a hair loose in a full ring game but fit in nicely imo to a 6 max game. 31/20 is loose but it is not crazy loose in 6 max and same goes for their 3 betting %s. They are high but not maniacal. Not sure how they were both playing in the moment at the table but I dont think the stats makes them loose and crazy necessarily so that will affect how I would range them to how you potentially ranged them.

As far as the hand goes this does come down to math and the ranges that we assign villain 1 and villain two. If my math is correct we would be calling $11.61 to win $28.32 since villain has us covered slightly. That's 2.44 to 1 or we have to win 1 in 3.44 times for 29% equity. Next comes the ranging of villains but we also have to factor in our image. I would assume since you said they opened too much that you were not thinking you opened too much which I will put into their thoughts as well. We are cold 4 betting here so I cant see any villain thinking we are light which means any 5 bet over that has a near zero chance of being a bluff. So what would villain 5 bet is what you have to come up with here and I personally dont think JJ even does this. We have two queens so its very unlikely either villain has the other 2. That leaves KK, AA, and AK. AK is possible but I dont think its as probable as AA and KK. That has nothing to do with combos but just my thinking that certain players will call AK here where most if not all players are raising or jamming KK and AA. I feel overwhelmingly here you are up against it and I havent even figured in the overcalling villain yet.

I would be folding this being fairly certain I did the right thing since I eliminated JJ and worse and figured bluffing is near never happening. However, we only need 29% here and if you were up against a single AA or KK you would have about 19%. Factor in some AKs and you get closer to the 29% needed. It is two players though so if it is a AA vs KK vs QQ spot you are only 15%. Villain 2 can still have a hand here too since they did not overcall pre but put in their 3 bet and are calling off a jam. I believe with all that said there will be some times you are ahead here (AK vs AK, QQ) but its not enough and in the long run folding is better. I will say though its probably not the worst call in the world but just one that will lose you money over time.

Thanks - really good point on the VPIP stats etc as you're right I'm purely playing 6-Max and therefore probably playing a little tight myself and overstating how loose villains are!

Agree with everything you said, I felt I was likely behind but felt the pot odds weren't far off giving me the equity I needed even if crediting them as good players and if they turned out to be playing too loose I'm getting great odds.

 

[frnandoh]

I couldn't see the end of the hand, but I suppose that MP has AA+ suited... Hahaha. Tip: RUN!!!!

 

[blueskies]

Depends. How many hands are those stats over? Have you played many hands against them? Do you have fold to 3bet % stat on them?

In situations like this, I've both folded and called depending on my feel at the time.

In my experience at BOL 10NL, villain COULD have it, but I've seen them do the same thing with as weak a hand as TT and AQ. But then at BOL 10NL is the lowest possible level so there are some dummies there.

If you feel both are solid though, one of them likely has KK+, it's ok to fold.