$10 NLHE 6-max: deep ante 250BB ESS, villains range exactly AA?

[JCgrind]

Even if you can narrow his 4bet range down to exactly AA/KK/QQ, it would still be profitable to get stacks in pre here, no? That is exactly 13 hands that he can have. You beat six of them (QQ), chop one (KK), and lose to six (AA). The SB's money makes a "break even" situation profitable: when villain has AA you lose only your stack, when he has QQ you win the amount of your stack plus the SB's money, and when he has KK you keep your stack and chop up the SB money.

no it wouldnt, just because he might be willing to 4b QQ does not mean he will call off/6b shove vs a 5b and GII pre.

250BB deep his preflop stacking range is AA/KK almost certainly.

 

[JCgrind]

I disagree about 5 betting preflop with all of these people saying that's the best play. You do not want to get it all in pre if he is in top 3 range because then it becomes a bingo gamble on whether you are up against QQ or AA. In which case: AA you lose $24 - 81% of the time and win $24 - 19% of the time. QQ you give him the chance to fold to a five bet (with a nit player like this, it will happen) 50% of the time and 6 bet you 50% of the time putting you to a harder decision.

You cannot wire his range down solely to aces here because the same play gets made when he has QQ and KK (which is rare, but occurs), so the pre play of flatting the 4 bet is definitely warranted.

I think it is played perfect pre because it brings in a 3rd man for added equity with the SB and also allows you to set mine against a hand that Villain will guaranteed marry with 80+% of the flops that contain K's (since single suited flops and 3 broadway cards will slow down aces in this betting situation). The key to the set mining play is to play it strong though because when he has aces you want him to think you just hit with a hand like AK or KQ (depending on how loose he thinks your range is). Not to mention the rare occasion that you hit set over set against SB.

Now, onto the post flop play (since I agree completely on the preflop play), I would say that he has proven his range to be solely top 3 (because if he had JJ, I think he'd like better value against 2 bettors, and if he had AK I doubt a nit player would fire such a bet against 2 bettors). So, now that you know you are winning 49% of the time, chopping 2% of the time, and losing 49% of the time you just need to figure out what the optimal money play is.

Me personally, I would play it defensively for two reasons. First being SB still in the hand who could have been set mining, and second being that a defensive play is going to warrant you better showdown value (and since you have a showdown value hand, you don't really want to over risk and be shoving post flop against two players).

So in this position I call and see what SB does. If SB calls and a K comes on turn I scream bingo at my computer because I just hit the jackpot. If SB raises, I see this as a great opportunity to cut my losses. If SB folds I see this hand down to the river solely for the value of QQ and AA breaking me even in long run vs each other (since either of those hands gets played against you in a similar manner) if no K comes.

So this means by playing defensively, 5% of the time a K comes and you win a big pot against aces. 5% of the time a K comes and Q's slow down and you win a middle sized pot. 10% of the time an ace comes and warrants both hands to slow down (QQ or AA, one out of fear and other out of value). 40% of the time, no A or K come and you win a mid sized pot against Q's. 40% of the time, no A or K come and you lose a mid sized pot against A's.

So, if you run the math (which I'm not going to since I already gave you the math above without "finalized calculations") you'll see that defensive play and calling to the river in most situations will net you a positive EV here.

Now, take into consideration that I do not have enough information on his post flop play and how he plays big hands, but if you do then that makes the defensive play even better because it will give you more information against both SB and Villain and allow you to make the optimal long term decision.

brilliant post, cheers!

i dont think anyone else disagrees with preflop, and yeah i think its way better than 5bing aswell. love the justification inc the SB


with postflop though, there are a few things you need to consider.
1. flatting 4bs w AA/KK is incredibly standard in these micro deepstack games, and it makes sense, cos what else are people playing into 5bs with at micros?

2. keep in mind that even if QQ is part of his range here, it will be a lot less willing to stack postflop (would likely get cautious if flop was called and slow down), as he has to consider what hands im calling 4bs with and stacking (never rly Jx). there arent really any hands that call a 4b and a flop barrel on that board that QQ beat, excluding complete floats.

 

[turtelliusshellius]

brilliant post, cheers!

i dont think anyone else disagrees with preflop, and yeah i think its way better than 5bing aswell. love the justification inc the SB


with postflop though, there are a few things you need to consider.
1. flatting 4bs w AA/KK is incredibly standard in these micro deepstack games, and it makes sense, cos what else are people playing into 5bs with at micros?

2. keep in mind that even if QQ is part of his range here, it will be a lot less willing to stack postflop (would likely get cautious if flop was called and slow down), as he has to consider what hands im calling 4bs with and stacking (never rly Jx). there arent really any hands that call a 4b and a flop barrel on that board that QQ beat, excluding complete floats.

Agreed. Most intelligent players are going to say "oh crap, he called my flop bet" and slow down with nearly any hand in this situation, even AA. That's why I said I'd play it defensively because I think letting him hold the drivers seat is going to give you far more information than coming out swinging. If he bets and you raise and he reraises, then you just put yourself into position to play a big pot against a high range hand that could very well keep on the pressure for a large chunk of cash, which is what we wanted to avoid by flatting pre anyway. If he keeps betting those "perfect" bets that get the right amount of value then you get far more information than going all out fist fight on the flop and may even be able to let go of K's on turn or river when you know for sure you are up against the wall.

 

[JCgrind]

ATTN:EVERYONE WHO THINKS YOU SHOULDNT FOLD KK PF

heres a hand that i played with duggs

poker stars $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em $0.04 Ante - 6 players - View hand 2353869
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

0PU0H (BTN): $32.00
EvMessiah (SB): $41.78
opadoona (BB): $49.16
Duggs (UTG): $43.54
danystorm (MP): $127.20
Hero (CO): $32.00

Pre Flop: ($0.48) Hero is CO with XX
Duggs raises to $0.48, danystorm raises to $2.40, Hero raises to $4.32, 3 folds, Duggs???

Duggs has KK.

what range would Duggs assign to me here?

now lets assume danystormfish folds, and Duggs calls, and we go to the flop with massive de javu

Flop: 9

J

6

(2 players)
Duggs checks, Hero bets $(half pot or whatever)

Does anybody who didnt want to fold flop in the previous hand now want to, now that in this hand there is the addition of
- the PF action being all from EP, thereby should be stronger ranges
- he is now OOP post
- we are HU not 3 handed

genuinely curious

 

[turtelliusshellius]

ATTN:EVERYONE WHO THINKS YOU CANT FOLD KK PF

heres a hand that i played with duggs

Poker Stars $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em $0.04 Ante - 6 players - View hand 2353869
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

0PU0H (BTN): $32.00
EvMessiah (SB): $41.78
opadoona (BB): $49.16
Duggs (UTG): $43.54
danystorm (MP): $127.20
Hero (CO): $32.00

Pre Flop: ($0.48) Hero is CO with XX
Duggs raises to $0.48, danystorm raises to $2.40, Hero raises to $4.32, 3 folds, Duggs???

Duggs has KK.

what range would Duggs assign to me here?

now lets assume danystormfish folds, and Duggs calls, and we go to the flop with massive de javu

Flop: ($8.22) 9

J

6

(3 players)
Duggs checks Hero bets $(half pot or whatever)

Does anybody who didnt want to fold flop before now want to with the addition of
- the PF action being all from EP, thereby should be stronger ranges
- he is now OOP post

genuinely curious

Personally, with that huge of raises preflop I'd have to put you on AA 95% and KK 5% of the time with me. I don't even think QQ is in your range here solely for the fact that he raised 3BB and then got 3bet 15BB and 4 bet 27BB. To me, this would have nothing to do with my own hand (other than being able to eliminate the odds of KK in most situation), but more with the bet size. Any player capable of 4 betting 27BB in any game is holding AA or KK, plain and simple. At this level anyway. I've seen pros do this with 10-4os, but that's because when you get to that level it's more of a mind game and less about grinding.

Also, I think KK has no choice but to fold here because you stole all of his set mining equity away with the big 4 bet, risking about 15% of your stack against his 11% set mining equity.

So in my opinion, I would have never even made it to that deja vu flop. lol

 

[JCgrind]

ahhhh lame didnt realise the diff sizing. fair enough. this is a deepstack game though so the sizing is generally bigger than 100bb deep, but yeah that dany guy was just ridic. (terrible lagreg/whale losing like 200bb/100 for the 2k hands i have with him lol)

my 4b is pretty much always 2.2-2.5x the 3b, but ye couldnt cos of that lemon lol.

3b/4b sizing especially shouldnt fluctuate based on hand str... if anything, id be betting bigger w light 3b/4bs and less w the nuts to deter/induce respectively