B
baudib1
Legend
Silver Level
Why don't they fold? And if they're calling, I'm assuming they're not calling to check/call check/fold when they miss.
Also, I'm not checking the turn.
Note that your reasoning is totally the polar opposite of KardKlub and I don't buy either line.
Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
They dont fold because you (and other players like you) cbet too much.
B
baudib1
Legend
Silver Level
If they call on gutshots we can profitably cbet, so forget about "what worse calls."
Also, in general I think if someone is floating on a gutter I'd assume they're bluffing a lot of turns, this was my main point before but I got sidetracked. It will be bad enough to navigate facecards, the board pairing and clubs are going to be great bluff cards for them; if we check we give him even more good turn cards to bluff.
Also, in general I think if someone is floating on a gutter I'd assume they're bluffing a lot of turns, this was my main point before but I got sidetracked. It will be bad enough to navigate facecards, the board pairing and clubs are going to be great bluff cards for them; if we check we give him even more good turn cards to bluff.
Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
And when they bluff that turn, you fold.
BTW all the scare cards hit his draws anyway so you can happily fold if the turn is a broadway card.
fletchdad
Jammin................
Loyaler
Sorry missed this. Yea, my opinion of him is defo competent and agro. He is not calling me here with AA-JJ AK, so his calling range is hevily weighted to PP TT and smaller. I dont think he is calling any Kx hands or AQ either. His large re raise made me think 99, but I will never know cause i folded after that.
Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
So, if he dosent fold draws (the hands you fear.. you main reason for betting) he can then successfully bluff the river when they miss.
Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
I dont think people CC that board with hands like 22. I think people are more likely to bluff with 22 or CF than CC so when he checks here he is either checking to call (a range that beats you or has tons of equity to improve or he is checking to fold which means you have the best hand already.
Answer me this are YOU cc this board with 77?
fletchdad
Jammin................
Loyaler
I meant his PF calling range. He c/r the flop and from what I had seen of him so far he was playing pretty straight froward, and I believe I was mainly behind on the flop. I dont think he was c/r with many hands that I beat. Had he c/c then that would have put me in the awkward position of having to try to get to SD with what is prolly the worst hand. If he c/c the flop I cant see any reason against this player to put any more money in.
He had not gotten out of line at all so far, and he was pretty straight forward. So he may have forced me off the best hand, but I dont think the chance of that was as big as the chance that I was crushed.
Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
So if he dosent call with worse, and could potentially CR you off your hand with something like a GS (which has good equity vs your hand) plus he folds most hands you beat, what do you gain from cbetting?
If you held 22 you could actually bluff out some hands you beat but you have a hand that beats almost everything he folds.
KardKlub
Visionary
Silver Level
This is a big part of poker I just couldn't grasp until recently. Also well explained stu
B
baudib1
Legend
Silver Level
What are you talking about? I don't fear draws. If you don't think there is value in getting hands with 25%-35% equity to fold when you can't call a bet on a later street you're misunderstanding a pretty fundamental part of poker.
B
baudib1
Legend
Silver Level
Do you realize how fishy this sounds? Being afraid to make a pretty standard bet because you're afraid of a CR? If he CR, good for him. If he CR gutters all the time then we'll call more often and shove it in with KJ+.
Put it this way: If you're not going to c-bet this extremely favorable board in this spot we should fold pre.
Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
meh.. ill bet in 6 months time when you understand fold equity more you'll change your mind.
Ill give you a clue: fold equity is not the same as fold frequency.
B
baudib1
Legend
Silver Level
Do you have a plan for this hand? Because it really sounds like you should fold pre. Hoping he checks 3 streets and we show down the best hand isn't a good plan.
This is a clear-cut case where if you're planning on calling any street you're better off betting.
This is a clear-cut case where if you're planning on calling any street you're better off betting.
Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
Oh no Im bluff catching the river with it on non BW board
Im also value betting the same river if he checks.
I assume that you think you need around 30% fold frequency here to make betting +EV.
However hands that you beat dont count towards that frequency.. you gain no EV by folding out anything you beat.
If villian checks the turn with small PP and will call just a 1/2 pot bet on the river you need around 85% fold equity (hands you beat dont count) for betting now to be higher EV
Plus you give villian change to bluff, you have about 96% equity against anything he bluffs on the turn and 100% equity against anything he bluffs on the river.
your bet dosent even makes sense here in terms of fold frequency, If we give him a range of all PP All BW and some SC you need your bet to work 35% of the time ish (taking into acount you could improve to a set) You probably fold out 25% on the flop.
On the turn you would need 35% again, you probably get around 20% max
On the flop most of the hands you fold out you beat so there is little fold equity (value gained from the fold)
On the turn there is more FE as you are now folding our things like weak aces, but even so the total frequency of hands that you do now fold is still well short of your goal of around 45% to make it +EV
Start thinking about ranges etc.. this just is never +EV
However if the flop and turn gets checked through it is HUGELY EV to bet or call
If villian bets turn and gives up on river its hugely EV
If vilian bets both turn and river its marginal. The key to making money is to avoid marginal situations; you dont profit from them however you play them, yet by checking the flop and turn you allow yourself to play a hugely profitable river.
B
baudib1
Legend
Silver Level
Your math doesn't add up and your points are based on some fairly big assumptions.
But let's start with one
This is clearly not true. If we check and he bluffs 77- on turn and river we can't call, as you later suggest.
I said it before, but I don't think you got the point. There is value in folding out hands if it protects us from getting bluffed on later streets.
We have a higher frequency of getting to showdown with the best hand by betting the flop than the turn, I can't believe you would suggest otherwise.
We don't have 96% against his bluffing range on the turn ever. You just said you can't bet flop for fear of CR from his gutters. If he CR gutters on the flop and we checked it back, then surely his range still contains gutters on the turn? So 96% doesn't work.
Furthermore, his turn betting range surely has better equity than we do, and that contains some hands that WOULD HAVE FOLDED ON THE FLOP if we bet. So surely you can see how if we're calling a turn bet, then betting the flop would have been better.
Stop whittling his range down to a subsection of hands when it's convenient for your current argument. His range starts tight, he has pairs that we beat that will bluff us if we check and hands that beat us that will fold if we bet and hands with equity that we beat but will call.
But let's start with one
This is clearly not true. If we check and he bluffs 77- on turn and river we can't call, as you later suggest.
I said it before, but I don't think you got the point. There is value in folding out hands if it protects us from getting bluffed on later streets.
We have a higher frequency of getting to showdown with the best hand by betting the flop than the turn, I can't believe you would suggest otherwise.
We don't have 96% against his bluffing range on the turn ever. You just said you can't bet flop for fear of CR from his gutters. If he CR gutters on the flop and we checked it back, then surely his range still contains gutters on the turn? So 96% doesn't work.
Furthermore, his turn betting range surely has better equity than we do, and that contains some hands that WOULD HAVE FOLDED ON THE FLOP if we bet. So surely you can see how if we're calling a turn bet, then betting the flop would have been better.
Stop whittling his range down to a subsection of hands when it's convenient for your current argument. His range starts tight, he has pairs that we beat that will bluff us if we check and hands that beat us that will fold if we bet and hands with equity that we beat but will call.
Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
Ok no probs I can tell its falling on deaf ears
This is not the way to play this hand on this flop.
Change Flop to Ac 9h 2d or something and then what you say makes sense, but that Jack and the FD comnined mean that most of the hands you are hoping will fold simply will not.
This is not the way to play this hand on this flop.
Change Flop to Ac 9h 2d or something and then what you say makes sense, but that Jack and the FD comnined mean that most of the hands you are hoping will fold simply will not.
Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
If he bluffs thats good for us so we shouldnt bet to prevent that.
He has hands that beat us that fold.. like what? TT?? betting here to fold out TT is like the inverse of saying you fold the nut Full house to a raise cuz he could have quads.. its a very small number of hands.
Hands with equity that will call, you mean the BW type hands that actually are flipping with our hand? Thats not a reason to bet.
I dont know how to explain this any simpler..
cardriverx
Legend
Silver Level
So you're saying you'd check flop and call a bet on turn and river?
B
baudib1
Legend
Silver Level
How is him bluffing good for us when we fold the best hand? I'd really recommend you don't turn your third/fourth-pairs into bluffcatchers on the river when you have a perceived strong range. Betting flop, double-barreling, triple barreling and bluffraising river bets are all going to be better options than check, check, call river; or check, call turn, call river; or check, call turn, fold river.
He folds TT/Jx on the flop, I explained that probably in my first response to you. He can call with gutshots/overs that you sometimes acknowledge he has while other times ignoring that part of his range. If he can call a river bet with worse than surely he can call a flop bet with those same hands?
Even though you fail to acknowledge that two-way betting exists and that there are reasons to bet that can't fit neatly into Baluga Whale's definition, this hand pretty much fits all of YOUR standard definitions for betting.
He folds TT/Jx on the flop, I explained that probably in my first response to you. He can call with gutshots/overs that you sometimes acknowledge he has while other times ignoring that part of his range. If he can call a river bet with worse than surely he can call a flop bet with those same hands?
Even though you fail to acknowledge that two-way betting exists and that there are reasons to bet that can't fit neatly into Baluga Whale's definition, this hand pretty much fits all of YOUR standard definitions for betting.
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