$10 NL HE 6-max: Nut flush on paired board

blueskies

blueskies

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Honestly I am playing pretty poorly right now. A string of coolers and suckouts have really messed me up mentally and I am making more mistakes than usual. More than a third of the profits from over the past year is gone.

Anyway, I had this hand which I am smacking my forehead.

I have As5s on BB. SB opens to 27c. He's not a loose stealer. I called.

I don't have a ton of history with villain but my impression is that he is pretty decent. Not someone to get out of line very often.

Flop is QcTsJd. Action goes check check.

Turn is Ks. He checks and I check.

River is Qs which gives me the nut flush but also pairs the board.

He leads out with 51c bet into the 51c pot (rake adjusted). My gut says he's betting an ace and I should raise. But then that little voice at the back of my head is saying maybe he's got a boat. I mean why bet pot size on that board. What hand worse than an ace would call a pot sized bet? BetOnline doesn't allow a lot of time so I ended up calling instead of raising SMH.

In hindsight, if he had a hand that could make a FH on the river, he probably would have bet the flop on that board. QJ, QT, sets would probably go for value. If he goes bet flop check turn bet river then he more likely has a boat. I just didn't have the time to think this through at the time.

And also, I probably should have bet the turn instead of trying to be cute. I was thinking if he had an ace and I could make a flush on the river then I could probably get him to call a raise. Otherwise if I bet and he calls and I don't make a flush and we split, we just end up losing more money to rake.

Anyhow, if it was you, do you bet the turn, do you raise the river, and how much?

Tiny pot, but it's spots like these that confuse the heck out of me nowadays. I've been running into so many big hands I am just so cautious now and it's costing me value.

Ac9s
 
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Samweis3

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For me it is definitely a value bet on the turn here. Don’t need to be to aggressive in sizing as you do not want him to fold, you currently hold the nuts on turn and still have the nut flush draw behind.

I think it is generally wrong to think too much about rake in this spot on the turn. If I consider to blow/not to blow up the pot this only happens on river and even there I will still go for some value and do not check down.

For the river I would be more afraid of KQ instead of QJ or QT. With the history with this guy I think the call is ok, but a I guess solver would still prefer a re-raise, sizing is difficult to judge as there is no indication of stack sizes at this spot.
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
Obviously you cant fold. 3-betting or calling are both fine.

Flop
I agree with checking back. You have a little bit of showdown value, and you dont want to get check-raised and blown off your equity.

Turn
This is where, I really disagree with your line. If he has an ace, you are freerolling him, which is a great situation for you. On the other hand if he has nothing and wanted to bluff, he would likely have bluffed already. So this HAS to be a bet.

River
I would never see the river this way, so its kind of difficult to me to say, if I would call or raise. But I dont think, its a huge mistake to just call. It is a paired board with 3 to a flush, and he bet full pot, which is quite polarizing. So I am not sure, how many worse hands can call other than maybe smaller flushes. On a paired board with 3 to a flush an ace should probably not bet this large and certainly not call a big raise. So as played I think, the river line is ok. It was on the turn, you lost your value. If you had bet, he might even have raised, and that would have allowed you to 3-bet and possibly get it all-in and stack him.
 
Aballinamion

Aballinamion

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Honestly I am playing pretty poorly right now. A string of coolers and suckouts have really messed me up mentally and I am making more mistakes than usual.
I told you more than once to take a break of the game but you simply won’t listen to my advice. We must stay out of tables when we have this feeling that things are going wrong more often than usual!
This is responsible gambling, not insisting because our poker ego tell us that we must play it no matter what.
It won’t hurt to be at least a week without playing any poker games. Think about it, please. This is for your attention and personal health state.
River is Qs which gives me the nut flush but also pairs the board.

He leads out with 51c bet into the 51c pot
If you think that villain might have a boat, just call and realize your equity. If we lose isn’t that much and if we win the board was complicated.
 
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300HPGOD

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Pre and flop I think leave little to debate so I will skip those. Turn is a gigantic mistake by both you and the villain. First for you, why check there when currently you have the nuts, a draw to the ace high flush, and also with K, Q, J, 10 on the board there are a lot of 1 pair and possibly even two pair combos (not sure they would check two pair though but could with the straight possibility) out there to extract value from that may call. From villains perspective now knowing their hand, why the hell are they checking there with the flush possibility out there that we know they dont have Ax of spades given our hand? To me, I would never put villain on Ax here going to the river since I feel like they should have been betting that for similar reasons to why you should have bet your Ax on the turn. I would put them on 1 pair hands mostly that just are trying to get to showdown.

The river is not an ideal card but does help us un-chop against Ax if it were that villain checked turn with it. As I said above, I think villain has a lot of 1 pair hands heading to river so when they bet pot here it would confuse me a little. However, I would be thinking what worse is going to call if I raise? They can see the flush on the board and they can see the straight so I am not thinking they do this with Qx unless it is a boat or possibly thinking they can get Ax non flush to fold and are turning it into a bluff. Either way, I am thinking that if I am ahead that Ax is not calling a raise on the river so it would have to be a smaller flush which is possible like 98, 87, 76 spades but its narrow. So I think I just call here thinking villain does not have Ax (due to not betting turn) and would not call a raise with it anyway. I was wrong on one front but still doubt they call a raise with flushes and boats possible that we could have the way we played the hand.
 
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