$10 NL HE 6-max: Fold a FH here?

blueskies

blueskies

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Third hand at a table... I am on BTN, villain on CO. Based on HUD stats he's a tight player and pretty good.

He opens to 30c. I call with 4s4h.

Flop is Ts6s4d. He cbets to about 2/3 pot. I call.

Turn is 6h, he checks. I bet a little over 2/3 pot. He raises to 3x my bet.

I really don't feel good here, but I called.

River is 7h. He insta shoves.

My gut says I am beat here goddam. Doubtful the dude's bluffing and I am really only hoping he's doing this with trip 6s, but I don't really see him raising preflop with A6 or checkraising the turn with that. And if he had a suited connector 67, I lost too. 10 10? But I called anyway since I only had a bit more than $5 left. Was getting almost three to one.

Would anyone fold on the river as played?

66
 
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Jarud

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Maybe this is a highly profitable exploit adjustment we can make against nitty regs, as in overfolding to turn check raises. Although it just feels wrong to go around folding boats. I’m yet to tackle 10nl so it’s likely you will have some regs doing this with non nutted hands.
i dont fault you for stacking off but going forward take note of villain and his stats so going forward we can maybe make big folds against this player type going forward
 
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I would sigh call here. There are only 4or 5 realistic combos we lose to, but he will usually have one of them. It's difficult to see him value betting weaker, but it is possible and once in a while you will see a bluff. He only needs to be over valuing or bluffing about 25% of the time to make it a profitable call, its probably less than this, but we cant go round folding bottom set that turns a full house or we will just get run over
 
D0nk3y Hunt3r

D0nk3y Hunt3r

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I wouldn't go with raise on turn, with such hand I would slow play this one and see what he'll do on river. Don't have enough info about the villain, but this could be standard c-bet for protection and potential value with many premium overcards, meaning you probably wouldn't extract much more with betting on turn. And this way maybe he would bet river with air.
Given the line changes everything, of course. Sigh call, given your lefties.
 
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300HPGOD

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Good to hear from you. I dont see you at the CC freerolls anymore and havent seen many posts from you but I dont always check the cash game side of things so maybe Im just missing them.

Pre flop: easy call with 44 unless one of the blinds is super agg which we wouldnt know at this point being there for only 3 hands unless we have history with them.

Flop: We flop bottom set on a two spade board. Yes we have a spade but I am not slowplaying this as there are some hidden straight draws as well. I expect to get called by overpairs as well as some flush draws and maybe the big flush draws re raise us which is what I would want. Villain bets about 50 cents into a pot of .75 of I am constructing it correctly so I would be raising that bet to at least 1.75 but possibly as high as $2. If they fold then it was probably a hand that we werent going to get a ton from anyway without them hitting something. Its a value raise but there is a protection element to it as well and I personally dont think bottom sets on wet boards should be slowplayed. You call which leaves you vulnerable to turns where there is another spade or even a 9,8, or 7 (since connectors are at least a part of villains range) and face a big bet. I prefer raising here on the flop.

Turn: The turn card on face is good since it takes away flush worries and overpairs villain could have would not be worried about you having 6x unless it is 66 which is unlikely (although apparently not as unlikely as we would think). It does hurt action from flush draws a little which could be another reason to raise on the flop. When villain checks to you I would be thinking 10x hand or a flush draw that wants to see if you check behind and get a free river card. I would bet as you did on the turn when checked to but I dont think it needs to be that big. We dont have to worry about flush draws and with villain checking I think their overpair range is extinct. Therefore we should be betting an amount that gets 10x to call (and not worry since we want them to be open to calling on river too) and also gets draws to still call thinking they have their implied odds. I would go small here. The pot is $1.75 as played (I think) so I would bet something like .80 here to keep in the draws and 10x. As played when we get check raised I am with you, I am thinking more like uh oh spaghetti o's. I would make my decision right here whether I am going with this hand or not. That is not to say I would raise their raise its just knowing in my head if I call this turn raise there is not a river I am folding including another 6 or 10 (which I would hate). I would not raise the turn bet since I am either crushed by 66 or 1010 or they are doing this with some hand they shouldnt be doing it with but it would be a hand that has no equity like a flush draw or 10x (which has little equity). I would want to keep their crap in if in fact they have it and if they do have me beat me here then it is what it is and we are getting in regardless.

River: 7 of hearts is not a bad hand. You mention be worried about 76 here but I am not since 76 would not or should not be checking the turn since there is two spades out there and they cant have 76 of spades with the 6 of spades on the board. We are in the same position as we were on the turn and only worried about 1010 or 66. We called the turn and should have thought at that point if I am calling the turn then I am calling river so if I was in this hand I would have pretty close to snap called the river knowing that I am calling every river card after the turn action. In my mind I would be thinking if its set over set or set over quads then it is what it is and being 100BBs deep (I assume thats what we are effective here) you are going to get it all from me set over set.

I feel like this hand is a cooler that you are blaming yourself for and I dont think you should be. You made a good read that the villain could easily have the better hand when they check raise on the turn but I just dont think at 10NL and being 100BBs deep that we should be folding on the turn with what we had nor should we be folding river after calling the turn and going to the river with $5.60 ish in our stack and the pot at $8.95 (again, if my math is correct but should be close to correct at least). set over set hands suck... when we are on the short end of them.
 
blueskies

blueskies

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Hi 300HPGOD, thanks for your thoughts. Makes a ton of sense. You are right, 67 is unlikely. I was just throwing into the wind some some hands that has me beat. And raising on the flop is a good idea. In this case I just thought that villain is a guy who may fold to a raise if I popped it there. With position I felt like I didnt mind just calling, though it didnt save me from losing my stack anyway.

Btw, I had a kid earlier this year so cant participate in the tourneys anymore. Wife would kill me ha. Sneaking in some cash gms here and there... ;)
 
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