10$NL 6max, 4 handed: Blind vs. Blind, steal turns TPNK, gets Aggro

[c9h13no3]

Down to 4 players. Carbona is a solid, fairly aggressive player. He has 3-bet me 2 times out of the BB when I've raised on the SB. No 3-bet this time.

Hero is at seat 1 with $41.97.
Carbona is at seat 2 with $12.70.

Hero posts the small blind of $.05.
Carbona posts the big blind of $.10.

grift1:


Pre-flop:

pokerchris80 folds. val2005 folds. Hero raises to
$.35. Carbona calls.

Potsize = $0.7

Flop (board: ):

Hero bets $.65. Carbona calls.

Potsize = $2.0

Turn (board: ):

Hero bets $1.50. Carbona raises to $4.50. Hero....


Odds on Call = 1.6:1


What's villain's range, what's hero's action?

 

[Richyl2008]

If you've been raising this guy a lot recently blind on blind, and he keeps playing back at you, I think it's probably a good time to change gears and wait for a better hand to raise his blind with. K7 plays pretty terrible post flop. As played I think your cbet on the flop was a little large, 5x probably would accomplish the same thing, The king on the turn is actually not a great card for you since it completes an obvious straight draw and there are some 2 pair combinations and sets he might have. It's hard to tell what villains range is without having seen the cards he has played but I would definately fold to the turn raise. There are just a ton of hands here that could be ahead of you. I wouldn't lead this turn though, check to try and keep the pot size down and go from there.

 

[vanquish]

fold

 

[c9h13no3]

check to try and keep the pot size down and go from there.

That's a pretty good point.

Btw, a few things:

1) We have a thinking opponent who thinks I'm full of sh!t. My image is probably total crap. He's going to be raising me light.

2) What hands does he call out of the BB that he doesn't 3-bet?

3) I'm thinking he would raise the flop with QJ. If he thinks I have nothing, why play QJ for implied odds when he thinks I have total air?

 

[vanquish]

That's a pretty good point.

Btw, a few things:

1) We have a thinking opponent who thinks I'm full of sh!t. My image is probably total crap. He's going to be raising me light.

2) What hands does he call out of the BB that he doesn't 3-bet?

3) I'm thinking he would raise the flop with QJ. If he thinks I have nothing, why play QJ for implied odds when he thinks I have total air?

he doesn't think you have total air nearly as often as you think here. and of the times he does, he's not gonna be raising his good hands nearly as often as you think either.

 

[Richyl2008]

He doesnt neccesarily think you have air. If he has QJ for instance he could be calling for the fact that he has decent equity in the pot, with 2overs and an oesd. A chance to take the pot away on the turn if you show weakness, or implied odds that justify his flop call if he thinks you'll double barrel the turn or if he can get another bet out of you, which is a reasonable assumption if you have been playing aggressively.

 

[c9h13no3]

Aight, so I think Rich gets to the point of the problem that I should think about checking in this spot and trying to see showdown. I suppose it does make our river call very difficult, OOP, though so I can see merits of betting. Hence why I posted this, I think its a tough spot .

You guys are probably going to hate this play, but since my opponent didn't 3-bet I ruled out somethings:

1) He doesn't have TT-QQ, and he doesn't have KQ, AQ, or AK.

2) He's likely playing a hand that has value in calling. So pairs 9 or lower (with 9's being borderline 3-bet territory), and suited connectors/gappers, ect.

3) There are two reasons he could raise the turn. He was either slowplaying and wanted me to two barrel, or he wants to push me off my hand. He may have picked up a draw to go with it.

So the only monsters worthy of slowplay in his range are 55, 9T, 95, and maybe 99. I figured that was a pretty tight range. Plus, this guy is aggro. In 10$ NL, if they're 3-betting often, they probably don't believe in slow playing. And since his raise was on the largish side, he prolly wanted me to exit.

So long story short, I shoved over him. I figured this guy is shoving the river just about always, and there's a lot of bad cards that can hit. Calling is out of the question. So sure, this is a marginal play *at best*, but I'd rather be making over-aggressive mistakes 4 handed than weak ones. Plus, sometimes you just know they're full of sh1t

Standard Line: Check/call the turn. Call a non scary river.



Turn (board: ):

Hero bets $1.50. Carbona raises to $4.50. Hero
goes all-in for $40.97. Carbona goes all-in for
$11.70. Hero is returned $29.27 (uncalled).

River (board: ):

(no action in this round)


Showdown:

Hero shows .
Hero has Kh 9d Tc Kd 9h: two pair, kings and nines.
Carbona shows .
Carbona has Jd 9d Tc Kd 9h: a pair of nines.