Originally Posted by Mase31683
Need to put a number to it, so let's say it's a $10+1 Sng. Well, if you call you have ~ 35% equity. You'll have 9,000 in chips if you win, and that's worth 42% of the prize pool, or $37.80.
So the EV of calling is .35($37.80) + .65($0) = $13.23
Folding (assuming one person wins the hand) leaves you with 1420 chips which will be worth 14.8% of the pool, which is $13.32
EV of folding = 1($13.32) = $13.32
Both calling and folding are close, but folding is a slightly better play.
I'd guess your estimate of equity on the call is a little high, I reckon it's closer to ~25%, in that sense, folding is even more of a +ve play than calling. And to add that, the OP plays at full tilt, so this is a 9 man sit n go not 10, and assuming no split pot, 4 players are going to be knocked out if the OP folds, leaving just the one monster stack, and 4 other (inc. undone) remaining players, with practically equal stacks, and 3 spots paying out. OP has more or less equal stack to the other 3 remaining players, and a good chance of making it to at least 2nd place and 30% of the prizepool. Also assuming undone (as a CCer and 5 all ins first hand!) is more wise than many of his opponents at this level, can successfully on more occasions than not push around the weaker players, all with playable stacks only being the first level, you can put yourself into a reasonably strong position, such that 2nd place is definitely within reach, and 1st not totally out of the question, depending on how the winner of this pot plays with his big stack.
Folding, in a 9 man sng, in the first hand, first level, with AA, and 5 people all in (most likely), is the only justifiable play imo.