Set over set set set on flop

#1 September 22nd, 2019, 5:57 PM

At Foxwoods just a $60 buyin. Starting stack is 15,000. Blinds are 100-200 200 BB ante. I had Pocket 88s UTG+1. UTG raises to 800, I Flat, HJ Flats. 3 to the flop. Flop- K J 8 Rainbow. UTG bets 1500, I call, HJ raises to 4000, UTG pops it All in, I Call, HJ calls. UTG has KK, HJ has JJ. In all honesty would anyone fold. And what are the odds of Set over Set over Set on the flop? I can't find the exact odds. Thanks Steve

#2 September 22nd, 2019, 6:58 PM

Fold, you need to put players on range. (UTG opens and cbet flop vs two players)

#3 September 22nd, 2019, 7:54 PM

lose to one set is hard, two sets, man, the odds is very very low, in live poker is hard to fold a set in the flop, i don't would fold too, good lucky in the next

#4 September 23rd, 2019, 7:48 AM

I'm sure no one can throw that hand off the flop. You cannot assume that the opponent has collected set.

#5 September 23rd, 2019, 8:03 AM

Given the preflop action very difficult to put anyone on set here but once the action has gone cbet flat raise shove before you on the flop Utg has both KK and JJ in his range other should really only have JJ in his range as KK would have reraised pre a good portion of the time. Tough spot and can get behind your action he could have KJ here but unlikely as he probably wouldn't go x3 utg a lot with that

#6 September 25th, 2019, 1:09 PM

Cruel cooler

#7 September 25th, 2019, 5:17 PM

I had simular run out like that last week. Unfortunately i was low set both times. No i couldn't get it in fast enough. Everyone who said they fold are being untrue. Maybe if flop was all one suite or easy straight run. But i doubt it. Your getting felted. Smile and when you get yours tell them next time it could be yours. All in. Set over set set set on flop

#8 September 25th, 2019, 5:22 PM

Maybe a pro can find a fold after the allin on the flop but none of us folk on this forum can do it

#9 September 25th, 2019, 5:24 PM

Originally Posted by SteveJr4990

At Foxwoods just a $60 buyin. Starting stack is 15,000. Blinds are 100-200 200 BB ante. I had Pocket 88s UTG+1. UTG raises to 800, I Flat, HJ Flats. 3 to the flop. Flop- K J 8 Rainbow. UTG bets 1500, I call, HJ raises to 4000, UTG pops it All in, I Call, HJ calls. UTG has KK, HJ has JJ. In all honesty would anyone fold. And what are the odds of Set over Set over Set on the flop? I can't find the exact odds. Thanks Steve

It is basically impossible to fold a set on the flop with the board is that with a rainbow. Also that early in the tournament in a small stakes tournament, you're usually good. As a player that plays at Foxwoods regularly, the odds of hitting 3 sets is near impossible. With the Foxwoods structure of unlimited re-buys too, I would just take it on the chin and say good hand, and buy back in Set over set set set on flop

.

Scenario Probability Odds If you have a pair, you hit a set (trips) on the flop 11.7551% 1:8 Being dealt a pair and flopping a set 0.6915% 1:144 If two players have pair, both flop a set 1.0176% 1:97 Heads-up both players are dealt a pair and flop a set 0.0024% 1:42,305 Two players at a 6-max-table are dealt a pair and both flop a set 0.0355% 1:2,819 Two players at a full ring table are dealt a pair and both flop a set 0.0851% 1:1,174 Three players at a 3-max-table are dealt and pair and all three flop a set 0.0000% 1:13,960,821 Three players at a 6-max-table are dealt and pair and all three flop a set 0.0001% 1:698,040 Three players at a full ring table are dealt and pair and all three flop a set 0.0006% 1:166,199

#10 September 25th, 2019, 6:12 PM

Originally Posted by TheDude6622

It is basically impossible to fold a set on the flop with the board is that with a rainbow. Also that early in the tournament in a small stakes tournament, you're usually good. As a player that plays at Foxwoods regularly, the odds of hitting 3 sets is near impossible. With the Foxwoods structure of unlimited re-buys too, I would just take it on the chin and say good hand, and buy back in Set over set set set on flop

.

Scenario Probability Odds If you have a pair, you hit a set (trips) on the flop 11.7551% 1:8 Being dealt a pair and flopping a set 0.6915% 1:144 If two players have pair, both flop a set 1.0176% 1:97 Heads-up both players are dealt a pair and flop a set 0.0024% 1:42,305 Two players at a 6-max-table are dealt a pair and both flop a set 0.0355% 1:2,819 Two players at a full ring table are dealt a pair and both flop a set 0.0851% 1:1,174 Three players at a 3-max-table are dealt and pair and all three flop a set 0.0000% 1:13,960,821 Three players at a 6-max-table are dealt and pair and all three flop a set 0.0001% 1:698,040 Three players at a full ring table are dealt and pair and all three flop a set 0.0006% 1:166,199

ya what he said

Set over set set set on flop

#11 September 26th, 2019, 1:06 PM

I dont know If i would have done it but I would like to think I would have at least thought about the fold here. UNG raise and you call is nothing overall but then the HJ pops is up and the UNG player goes all in would have me worried as hell. If I had a read on the HJ and thought he was loving the situation I think I could fold it here But being honest i am not 100% sure.

#12 September 26th, 2019, 5:54 PM

An interesting situation. I had a full house the distribution of which played against a full house over, and someone was also a monster. Therefore, I and the like poker. But it was at the micro-stakes.

#13 September 26th, 2019, 7:35 PM

Originally Posted by SteveJr4990

At Foxwoods just a $60 buyin. Starting stack is 15,000. Blinds are 100-200 200 BB ante. I had Pocket 88s UTG+1. UTG raises to 800, I Flat, HJ Flats. 3 to the flop. Flop- K J 8 Rainbow. UTG bets 1500, I call, HJ raises to 4000, UTG pops it All in, I Call, HJ calls. UTG has KK, HJ has JJ. In all honesty would anyone fold. And what are the odds of Set over Set over Set on the flop? I can't find the exact odds. Thanks Steve

Thank U 4 Posting.

This is were we have to get good at villain reads. How to we do this? We break down the actions villain's take and refine their ranges because of those actions. In this case after the hand.

Utg raise pre range AA KK QQ JJ AK AQ 1010 99 ....?

HJ range preflop is fairly wide apparently JJ-22... etc not likely AA KK - QQ? AK?

So on flop UTG bets AA KK AK JJ what else? QQ? KQ? KJ?

You call? Why slow play a set on a board you think UTG will get all-in with AA AK KQ? KJ?

HJ raises. What hands? Do not look at the next line type out a range for HJ.

HJ raises AK JJ KJ KQ what else? Why Q10? you have a draw with 2 callers, you have to hit to win why raise? The board is rainbow no flush draws.

Back to UTG: UTG pops it all-in? Is that an observation of the ease at which or speed at which the UTG went all-in?

If yes, why would the UTG be feeling easy about all in with AA or AK or KQ vs a HJ raise after one player calls with no flush draws and Q10 making no sense to raise?

UTG holding AA or AK must think JJ 88 KJ are just as possible as AK or KQ. So why be relaxed to go all-in? Would there not have been a pause where UTG weighed the possible hands that beat UTG?

We cannot know how strong HJ is exactly but we should be looking at HJ after UTG shoves. If HJ looks like they are eager to get it all-in vs UTG then the hand is KK JJ KJ. We already know our hand so we should be thinking about did we run into a chainsaw?

We are in a tournament. Getting broke early with no rebuy leans us towards, after we have done the above assessment, folding. We will get it wrong some times but not very often if we can villain read well.

Hope this helps

Set over set set set on flop

#14 September 26th, 2019, 7:50 PM

Real tough situation. I probably would've done the same thing you did until the shove that implied one of the two has a set obviously higher than mine !!!

#15 October 1st, 2019, 7:29 AM

Three sets could turn into three full house on the river. But that would be incredible.

#16 October 1st, 2019, 7:54 AM

Set over set is a no limit holdem killer.

If your read on opponents is solid or tight and have at least starting stack you can find fold here You are deep enough and you have bottom set and loads of action multi-way.

If you have less than 40BB or your read on your opponents is that they are active and aggressive there is no getting away.

#17 October 1st, 2019, 10:09 AM

I would be happy to reshove with a set on a rainbow flop.
UTG could have AA AK KQ KJ or Maybe QT and T9
not sure About HJ, but KQ KJ QT and T9 are also in his range that we beat.

take the cooler. I guess 98% would call in this spot and barely anyone would make the hero fold

Originally Posted by Smart_Hand

Fold, you need to put players on range. (UTG opens and cbet flop vs two players)

you can't put him on a set and fold this Hand at the early stage without a read.
there are a lot of Hands we beat while there are only 2 Hands we lose to. chances that we are up against both of those 2 are less than 0.01%.

Originally Posted by eetenor

Utg raise pre range AA KK QQ JJ AK AQ 1010 99 ....?

HJ range preflop is fairly wide apparently JJ-22... etc not likely AA KK - QQ? AK?

So on flop UTG bets AA KK AK JJ what else? QQ? KQ? KJ?

with such Deep stacks I would not put HJ on AA-TT. he would 3bet most of the time with those Hands in Position. that's why I would not put him on a set.
the 4x open from UTG is usally a premium like AA-JJ and AK/AQ.
the Action on the flop confirms it that he has AA AK or the rare case that he hit a better set than us. there are a lot of Hands HJ might fold after 2 People shoving, so his reraise could also be a semibluff with a OESD...

#18 October 1st, 2019, 10:27 AM

In tournaments on micro limits to read what is the opponent is extremely difficult but at the limits of the more expensive there is something to think about.again depends on stage tournament's late she or early from your positions at the table if stance late and until you not was raises the 88 is worth play Ah and if until you did greater rate their can be send in your passes.pass the money saved)!Good luck

#19 October 1st, 2019, 8:49 PM

Originally Posted by Veritas

with such Deep stacks I would not put HJ on AA-TT. he would 3bet most of the time with those Hands in Position. that's why I would not put him on a set.
the 4x open from UTG is usally a premium like AA-JJ and AK/AQ.
the Action on the flop confirms it that he has AA AK or the rare case that he hit a better set than us. there are a lot of Hands HJ might fold after 2 People shoving, so his reraise could also be a semibluff with a OESD...

Thank U 4 Responding.

The fact that this is live matters. As we saw you would range HJ :1010 JJ into a 3 bet range and this villain might not 3 bet QQ. It is live, it is early and no one wants to go home so soon.

We have to adjust our ranges to player pool tendencies and live play is nothing like online.
So if UTG has AA and gets raised on that flop the first thing UTG thinks is KJ JJ 88. So if UTG piles it in easily you can bet your ass it is not AA or AK. UTG will go all-in with those hands but it won't be easy for him. It will be more of a f**** it not again kinda shove.

That HJ having a set is kind of irrelevant here as we have to decide before getting enough data from him. So our main thought is why is UTG so happy to get it in and we can look at HJ and maybe see if HJ is relaxed as well. In live poker average relaxed players have what they perceive as the nuts. So if we get two reads from two average players that they are fine going all-in early in a $60 tournie it is not AA AK(why do I always get cracked?) Or Q10 semibluff.
If there was a flush draw that is completely different. Live players play the flush draws like they are the nuts. Without a flush draw if they are acting like it is the nuts, it is because it is the nuts.

Hope this helps

Set over set set set on flop

#20 October 1st, 2019, 9:09 PM

It's just a cooler though you might be able to get away from it once it's shove time. I had something similar happened though I was on the winning end with KK and instead of 88 it was 55.

#21 October 2nd, 2019, 7:26 AM

Originally Posted by eetenor

Thank U 4 Responding.

The fact that this is live matters. As we saw you would range HJ :1010 JJ into a 3 bet range and this villain might not 3 bet QQ. It is live, it is early and no one wants to go home so soon.

We have to adjust our ranges to player pool tendencies and live play is nothing like online.
So if UTG has AA and gets raised on that flop the first thing UTG thinks is KJ JJ 88. So if UTG piles it in easily you can bet your ass it is not AA or AK. UTG will go all-in with those hands but it won't be easy for him. It will be more of a f**** it not again kinda shove.

That HJ having a set is kind of irrelevant here as we have to decide before getting enough data from him. So our main thought is why is UTG so happy to get it in and we can look at HJ and maybe see if HJ is relaxed as well. In live poker average relaxed players have what they perceive as the nuts. So if we get two reads from two average players that they are fine going all-in early in a $60 tournie it is not AA AK(why do I always get cracked?) Or Q10 semibluff.
If there was a flush draw that is completely different. Live players play the flush draws like they are the nuts. Without a flush draw if they are acting like it is the nuts, it is because it is the nuts.

Hope this helps

Set over set set set on flop

I read that it is live and considered it, still most People would 3bet here with such Deep stacks.
I played a lot of live tournaments and you Play less Hands, therefor you don't want to Play your strong Hands passive. So why should he just call with QQ-TT and then fold to an overcard?
There is also a big difference to online: you Play vs A LOT more fishes even in medium buy-ins up to 100$. People get sticky with their Hands with just top pair and a medium kicker or a pocket pair, so it is not Always the 'he must have the nuts' thought process.

we are in the early stage, so how should we know if those two are thinking Players, regs, recs, nits, calling stations or total fishes�..
I saw People shoving/calling here with KQ, KT, AJ, QJ, TT or worse.
so unless you have played a lot of Hands with them I would not put them on a KK JJ range.

#22 October 2nd, 2019, 4:58 PM

Against 1 opponent, you probably wouldn't be able to get away from set over set. However, in this case, with 2 opponents acting so aggressively on such a dry board, I think you might have been able to find a fold. The action on the flop should have been setting off alarm bells. You call the initial bet. The player behind raises after your call and then UTG goes all-in. You have to think there's a strong possibility at least one of them has a set. There are no draws and it's highly unlikely that both of them have only 2 pair, given the pre-flop action.

#23 October 2nd, 2019, 6:16 PM

Originally Posted by Veritas

I read that it is live and considered it, still most People would 3bet here with such Deep stacks.
I played a lot of live tournaments and you Play less Hands, therefor you don't want to Play your strong Hands passive. So why should he just call with QQ-TT and then fold to an overcard?
There is also a big difference to online: you Play vs A LOT more fishes even in medium buy-ins up to 100$. People get sticky with their Hands with just top pair and a medium kicker or a pocket pair, so it is not Always the 'he must have the nuts' thought process.

we are in the early stage, so how should we know if those two are thinking Players, regs, recs, nits, calling stations or total fishes�..
I saw People shoving/calling here with KQ, KT, AJ, QJ, TT or worse.
so unless you have played a lot of Hands with them I would not put them on a KK JJ range.

Thank U 4 Responding.

There is a disconnect between what we are both saying. My post is about a live read in this hand. I asked a question in my early post "UTG pops it all in." Did that indicate an easy shove? It is the easy shove part I am basing my read on. Yes all you said is true but how the UTG shoves matters. As I said as well we will be wrong sometimes when the villains have no idea what they are doing they will think AA AK KJ is the nuts and act like it is.

I do not doubt the HJ will call with KJ AK but HJ may not be relaxed about it. When you are doing live reads, why so relaxed?, is a good question to ask yourself before you call even with a set. If UTG seemed to not have a care in the world about KJ calling that is because he has KJ beat. Not an easy read to make but if you want to make physical reads at the poker table you need to watch closely how a live player shoves all-in with 1010 on that board vs how a player shoves KK. It is the only read that will help you, if you can learn to do it.

By the way 1010 shoves with a tight aggressive body position while KK shoves with a loose relaxed who cares body position. When the flop is first displayed, if you are watching, you may even see the tension flow out of UTG's body or UTG may have a jolt like reaction to hitting a set followed by relaxing completely. 1010 does not do that, nor does AA.

I was playing in a limit cash game and my opponent called the turn with 33 when I bet the K turn. On the river the 3 hit, my villain actually popped his body an inch off the chair. Then completely relaxed his body and checked to me. I had 2 pair I checked back.

Live tells are real, they are never 100%. This is a tournament, staying alive is important. If we cannot make the read I am speaking about we have to call I agree.

Hope this helps

Set over set set set on flop

#24 October 2nd, 2019, 7:52 PM

It's almost impossible to fold even with tells. KJ might think and act like they have the nuts. Early in live action, newbies tend to over bet any top pair+.

#25 October 2nd, 2019, 10:58 PM

Originally Posted by TDTODDY

It's almost impossible to fold even with tells. KJ might think and act like they have the nuts. Early in live action, newbies tend to over bet any top pair+.

Thank U 4 Responding.

It takes a lot of study and hard work to know when it is a tell and when you think it is a tell. It is no where near impossible however.

Kidpoker has demonstrated the ability to do just that and so have many other new live pros. Non pros have a name for it we call it a soul read. It is not a soul read it is merely physical cue data collection and analysis.

As you stated though you can be fooled by their ignorance. However we have to trust our strong reads if we make them when playing live.

Hope this helps

Set over set set set on flop

#26 October 3rd, 2019, 4:17 PM

I most likely would not fold and would be very sick to my stomach about it all, but I see most good players folding that.

Body reads at the felt and as eetenor broke down the hand, experienced players in that situation would mostly fold I wager.

#27 October 3rd, 2019, 4:32 PM

Most players would not fold
I had straight over set or set at the flop once and lost with bottom set and felt I could fold either

#28 October 3rd, 2019, 4:43 PM

A lot of great analysis here, that said, sometimes you just lose.

#29 October 3rd, 2019, 4:55 PM

Typically I am not folding a set for 100BB or less, when no flush or straight is possible. However if there ever was a time to do it, it has to be a situation like this, because that flop action is just insane. It also matter, that it was an UTG open, because it mean, he should not have any hands, that flopped two pair or a draw. This mean, that by calling here, we are pretty much hoping, he is wildly overplaying AA or AK. Even so its really difficult to get away, and in real time I dont think, I could lay it down.

However I dont think, we even had to see a flop with this hand. If UTG open, and we are UTG+1, we can pretty much play a 3-bet or fold strategy. 88 is not a good candidate for 3-betting, since it has no relevant blockers and very bad equity and playability when called. So for me this would just be a fold. I know, many people want to call here to setmine because "LOL implied odds". But we have the entire table left to act after us, and if someone put in a 3-bet, we dont even get to see a flop.

#30 October 3rd, 2019, 7:20 PM

If you achieve the smallest set of the flop, the probability of losing with a higher set is 8%. That is, you will lose once every 12.5 times. Regards.

#31 October 3rd, 2019, 8:00 PM

Exact is 8.51063829% That is to say that you will lose once every 11.75 times from the push from the flop.

#32 October 3rd, 2019, 8:16 PM

In the scenario that it played out after the flop,
I would say 99% of poker players would have called like you did.
In theory, whatever is said but when you are sitting there with your heart thumping like crazy, eager to pull all the chips your way with that set, you don't see yourself folding anywhere.

So what do we make of it, just chill and get over it.

But to analyze your hand with percentage doesn't work in reality.

#33 October 8th, 2019, 8:40 PM

Originally Posted by Smart_Hand

Fold, you need to put players on range. (UTG opens and cbet flop vs two players)

Huh? Fold - really, that is impressive.
Yeah UTG range includes A/K which is what I'd put him on.

Originally Posted by TheDude6622

It is basically impossible to fold a set on the flop with the board is that with a rainbow. Also that early in the tournament in a small stakes tournament, you're usually good. As a player that plays at Foxwoods regularly, the odds of hitting 3 sets is near impossible. With the Foxwoods structure of unlimited re-buys too, I would just take it on the chin and say good hand, and buy back in Set over set set set on flop

.

Scenario Probability Odds If you have a pair, you hit a set (trips) on the flop 11.7551% 1:8 Being dealt a pair and flopping a set 0.6915% 1:144 If two players have pair, both flop a set 1.0176% 1:97 Heads-up both players are dealt a pair and flop a set 0.0024% 1:42,305 Two players at a 6-max-table are dealt a pair and both flop a set 0.0355% 1:2,819 Two players at a full ring table are dealt a pair and both flop a set 0.0851% 1:1,174 Three players at a 3-max-table are dealt and pair and all three flop a set 0.0000% 1:13,960,821 Three players at a 6-max-table are dealt and pair and all three flop a set 0.0001% 1:698,040 Three players at a full ring table are dealt and pair and all three flop a set 0.0006% 1:166,199

Agree - never folding here - just get it in, loose and rebuy. Nice hand. Don't fold sets - unless it's on the river and there are clear straight/flush boats on the board.

But my math is a little different than yours Dude - Odds of flopping a set is 11.8% x 3 players = 35.4% Set over set set set on flop

Originally Posted by Veritas

I would be happy to reshove with a set on a rainbow flop.
UTG could have AA AK KQ KJ or Maybe QT and T9
not sure About HJ, but KQ KJ QT and T9 are also in his range that we beat.

take the cooler. I guess 98% would call in this spot and barely anyone would make the hero fold

you can't put him on a set and fold this Hand at the early stage without a read.
there are a lot of Hands we beat while there are only 2 Hands we lose to. chances that we are up against both of those 2 are less than 0.01%.

with such Deep stacks I would not put HJ on AA-TT. he would 3bet most of the time with those Hands in Position. that's why I would not put him on a set.
the 4x open from UTG is usally a premium like AA-JJ and AK/AQ.
the Action on the flop confirms it that he has AA AK or the rare case that he hit a better set than us. there are a lot of Hands HJ might fold after 2 People shoving, so his reraise could also be a semibluff with a OESD...

Agree without reads OR definitive history with player (online) just can't put other players hitting a set as well.
The sign of strength from both could simply be top pair middle pair top kickers - which give them straights possible as well with 2 to come. So hard - I'm never folding - though I'm starting to think I might be a bit of a station - but that isn't necessarily such a bad thing at my buyin/level.

#34 October 9th, 2019, 8:41 PM

Originally Posted by Smart_Hand

Fold, you need to put players on range. (UTG opens and cbet flop vs two players)

You wouldn't call the cbet? Honestly I would have called the cbet with the plan to analayze on the turn. Once that raise goes in and then a re-raise I might reconsider my hand and fold.

#35 December 11th, 2019, 12:11 PM

One of the reasons people preach bankroll management is because if situations like this. not putting your money in {unless you have a lot of play time with this person at high stakes and you can spot out this set over set}. your point in a tourney is to amass chips. and basically if you are afraid to do that here you are more than likely playing out of your bankroll.... not that being said there are exceptions to this.. one is a satellite bubble where you have enough chips you ARE goon to make the ticket regardless {that goes for aces as well) AND another is if you can read that maybe one of them as a flush draw and the other has a straight draw and it is is the very start and maybe your dont have another bullet {bankroll management again}. however you can never fully know that is what is going on and also even then if you aren't practicing good bankroll management and this is way to big for you, you should probably still be putting it in.

#36 December 11th, 2019, 12:25 PM

UTG bettor can have AA there, KK, AK, and JJ. Maybe even KJ, but probably not. AA and AK seems unlikely because it was such a small raise and you still have alot of your stack left behind. If he had AA or AK, he can easily put the raiser on 88 and KJ easily. JJ is also a possibility since alot of ppl play that hand weirdly. Or QT or T9. But it was also a small raise though so it might feel his hand was misrepped.
You're beaten by JJ and KK.
You beat AK, AA, QT, and T9.

QT and T9 seem unlikely here. So there's only 2 hands out of 4 that you beat. Now you have to ask yourself is your opponent 3 bet shoving AK and AA there on flop. If you think so, then call. 50/50 and I'm sure you're getting those pot odds to call. Even if it's AA, KK, and JJ in his range you're still beating 1/3 of his range or about 2:1 pot odds. Take the pot odds into account and call accordingly.

IF you believe there's no way he's shoving AA or AK there, then fold. It's entirely up to you. Don't be too attached to the hand. Be honestly on how you objectively feel.

#37 December 13th, 2019, 5:42 PM

You cannot assume that the opponent has collected set on the flop.

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