I really really think if he shoves they will all have to fold unless the UTG raiser had exactly AA/KK/QQ and if he had KK we are still 30% to spike an ace, and if he had QQ it is just a classic flip.
Flips happen in tourneys, if you do get called you are getting much better than 1:1 pot odds
on your flip. This is one of those tournament defining hands. If you aren't willing to make a couple big plays and big flips per tourney, then tourneys might not be for you.
We are sitting on 18k and 45 BBs and an M=18. so we're comfortable but we're gonna need a lot more chips in the not too distant future to have a real shot at the big prize money.
Right now the pot has 1,000 (blinds +antes) Plus 1,000 raise plus 5,000 calls so 7,000. That represents nearly 40% increase in our stack size up for grabs in the pot.
I think because we are the BB shoving is optimal as we dont want to play a huge pot out of position on a hand that could so easily be ahead and miss the flop. If we were the button it would be a closer call between a big raise and a shove.
How are we going to feel if we raise it up to 5k (28% of our stack) and miss the flop and we check out of position and they make a huge bet? Aren't we going to wish we had just shoved preflop? They could even call us with AK preflop by the way, and take the pot away from us with position...
What if we raise it up to 5k and get 1 caller and then we spike an Ace and we bet out and they fold their JJ/QQ? aren't we going to wish we had them on the hook for a full double up?