This is a discussion on What are the odds, of making Quads by the river with Pocket Pair? within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; Hi everyone, I'm looking for the specific odds of making quads with a pocket pair by the river. If you ran out all the community cards. 


#1




What are the odds, of making Quads by the river with Pocket Pair?
Hi everyone,
I'm looking for the specific odds of making quads with a pocket pair by the river. If you ran out all the community cards. Also, odds of making quads on the flop. Thank you. 
#3




Okay, so basically, your saying its about 1 in 50 I make quads by the turn? With a pocket pair? That can't be right.....I need the 1/10 type not percents. 0.245% on flop equates to about what? 1 in 400 which actually, seems correct. I can't see that by adding one more card (the turn) it becomes 1 in 50 no way.....

#4




It may be surprising, but that is the probability of drawing to 1 out on the turn (46:1) and the river (45:1). It is the same probability of completing a straight flush draw as well.
The probabilities that Shaetano posted above are correct. Think of it this way. To make quads... On the flop you are trying to draw 2 cards out of 50 and then 1 card out of 49 OR 2 cards out of 50 and then 1 card out of 48 OR 2 cards out of 49 and then 1 card out of 48. On the Turn you are trying to draw just 1 card out of 47 (not that hard). On the River you are trying to draw 1 card out of 46 (only a little worse than trying to get a powerball match ) 
#5




re: Poker & What are the odds, of making Quads by the river with Pocket Pair?
Quote:
Odds of flopping quads: 0.245% or 407:1 Odds of turning quads after having flopped a set: 2.128% or 46:1 Odds of rivering quads after making a set on either the flop or turn: 2.174% or 45:1 Odds of making quads on EITHER the flop, turn or river: 0.816% or 122.5:1 
#8




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I hope my wording will be clear. You subtract 1 from the 408.1633 to get the accurate number. It happens once in 408 hands, so the odds of it happening are 407:1. Odds of 25% are 3:1, not 4:1 (as that would be 20%). It'll happen 25% of the time, or once in 4, but the odds are 3:1. So it's ((100 / odds %)  1) : 1. 
#9




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#10




re: Poker & What are the odds, of making Quads by the river with Pocket Pair?
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#12




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Complete on Turn: 2.128%, unless you dont have a set (which occurs 88.2%) in which case your odds are 0% So the turn probability is actually around .25%. And the River probability is also misleading. 
#13




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These are the odds of getting quads (when dealt a pocket pair) (or a straight flush with two suited and connected cards) WITHOUT assuming that you flopped a set. *edit* Note that the odds for the turn include quads made on the flop, and the odds for the river include quads made on the flop and the turn. Later today if I have time I'll figure out the odds of making these hands EXACTLY on the turn and river. on Flop: 0.145 (407.33:1) by Turn: 0.490 (203.17:1) by River: 0.816 (121.50:1) My bad for misinterpreting the original question. 
#14




Its nice to know such little facts, but I guess you are not going to play for those kind of things.
When playing on pokerstars there are people wo do, and in general you can take their money without any problem, but when you lose from them the rage is to big to describe. 
#15




re: Poker & What are the odds, of making Quads by the river with Pocket Pair?
I made a typo in my last response so I'll post the odds again here (sorry for the confusion)
on Flop 0.245 (407.33:1) (changed from the 0.145 typo) by Turn 0.490 (203.17:1) by River 0.816 (121.50:1) If we subtract the quads made on previous streets then we will get the odds of hitting quads EXACTLY on those streets. on Flop 0.245 (407.33:1) on Turn 0.245 (407.33:1) on River 0.327 (305.25:1) 