Anyone know the odds of making trips by the river with a pocket pair? All the sites I have looked at only show odds to the flop.
hi hi amxvulcan
if have pocket pair (odds dealt any pocket pair 5.9%, once in 17 times)
remains 50 unknown cards, two of those give success
and is five opportunities (flop, turn, river) to attain success, make magical set...
however probability depend at what stage of the hand
on flop
if have say 77 ... now to flop a 7, make a set is: 11.76% (once in 8.51 times)
on turn
now is 47 unknown cards left, with one to come, make a set is 4.3% (once in 22.26 times)
on river
now is 46 unknown cards remain, with one to come, probability make set is: 4.3% (once in 22 times)
the mathematical formula to calculate make my head want explode lol
as well explained by kraemer (brilliant guy) above... after flop is convenient think of outs (the number of cards which give you desired result)...
good estimate is: (outs x 4) for turn, & (outs x 2) for river
i think best answer your question ..
you dealt a pocket pair:
achieve a set by the river: 11.75% (once in 7.5 times) achieve at least a set incl quads and boats too)
make exactly set: 8.4% (once in 11 times)
interesting to achieve quads by river 0.84% (once in 119 times)
this may be of interest
http://www.pokerology.com/charts/poker-math-and-probability.pdf
(note: i believe correct is say, a
set is when you have 2 in hand, 1 one on board...
trips be when have one in hand, board has other two)