This is a discussion on Trips within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; Anyone know the odds of making trips by the river with a pocket pair? All the sites I have looked at only show odds to
With having pocket pair, it is 11% chance to hit trips or better (like full house) at the flop.
There are sites that offer exact percentages, not that hard to find. The 11% probability I know in head, but the source is long forgotten
We only know our pocket cards, so i calculate with a 50 card deck left. For each out you have you get a 2% chance of hitting it with 1 card being dealt. So you get 0,02 per out and multiply by the number of cards that are left to be dealt. This is not 100% accurate but good enough for better decisions at the table where you have no time to go and look up odds.
With a pocket pair you have 2 outs, so two times 0,02 = 0,04
Multiply by 5, because 5 cards will be dealt = 0,20
Which means 20 % chance to hit trips by the river.
With AK preflop you have 6 outs, so 6 times 0,02 = 0,12
Multiply by 5, because 5 cards will be dealt = 0,60
Which means 60 % chance to hit an Ace OR a King by the river
With AK and the flop already dealt you have
(6*0,02)*2 = 0,24
or a 24% chance of still hitting an Ace OR a King on the turn or river.
(Your Outs * 0,02) * Number of Cards to Come = your chance of hitting at least one out
Anyone know the odds of making trips by the river with a pocket pair? All the sites I have looked at only show odds to the flop.
hi hi amxvulcan
if have pocket pair (odds dealt any pocket pair 5.9%, once in 17 times)
remains 50 unknown cards, two of those give success
and is five opportunities (flop, turn, river) to attain success, make magical set...
however probability depend at what stage of the hand
if have say 77 ... now to flop a 7, make a set is: 11.76% (once in 8.51 times)
now is 47 unknown cards left, with one to come, make a set is 4.3% (once in 22.26 times)
now is 46 unknown cards remain, with one to come, probability make set is: 4.3% (once in 22 times)
the mathematical formula to calculate make my head want explode lol
as well explained by kraemer (brilliant guy) above... after flop is convenient think of outs (the number of cards which give you desired result)...
good estimate is: (outs x 4) for turn, & (outs x 2) for river
i think best answer your question ..
you dealt a pocket pair: achieve a set by the river: 11.75% (once in 7.5 times) achieve at least a set incl quads and boats too)
make exactly set: 8.4% (once in 11 times)
interesting to achieve quads by river 0.84% (once in 119 times)