Originally Posted by FromHereOn
Some interesting hands I've been in lately are challenging my perception of how literal to apply pot and implied odds.
Question 1: Do pot odds apply more literally heads-up than with multiple hands?
Long term, does tampering with pot/implied odds using 'common sense/experience' have the better EV?
Does the chip position in a tournament from taking one of these monster pots down make it worthwhile to gamble? Are these hands good to fold in a cash-game and not in a tournament? Thanks for any advice!
Here are some hands that are shaking my understanding:
(All preflop hands all-in with similar stacks)
Hero: A7o 34%
Villain A: A3o 41%
Villain B: 22 25%
Hero has proper pot odds to call here but I think I'd rather fold due to not being the most likely of 3 to win, and missing one A! Shove or fold?
Hero: AQo 28%
Villain A: KJo 26%
Villain B: 55 18%
Villain C: 99 28%
I really expect AQ to lose here simply considering 4 hands are squaring off. 28% shows this to be a reasonable call, especially considering the opportunity to quadruple up.
**These bizarre hands are the products of freerolls most often, but certainly have made me reconsider some general philosophy that I'd like to apply forward to real games.
Im presuming these are "all in" pre flop hands?
In which case A3 gets more equity due to its abiity to hit straights more often. Also your chopping pretty often with the other A.
You have to consider the fact here however that you do not know your opponents hole cards when you make the call based on pot odds or EV therefore you are not making the decision based on your actual equity, but your perceived equity against your opponents range. You need to be applying a range to your opponent and deciding whether you are ahead or behind there expected range.
An example is if you perceive your opponent is shoving the top 15% of hands for example in a tournament with blinds of 250/500 with a 50 ante and you find yourself in the BB facing one shove for 5000. There is 6200 in the middle and you have to call 4500. This means you need a 41.5% chance of winning against your opponents range for the call to be correct means that a call with KJs is actually EV+ as you have 44% with this hand. However if your opponent shows you AA the call is incorrect as you only have a 17% of winning.
Therefore when you make pot odds decisions it is on your opponents perceived range, not there actual holding.
Also you have to take into consideration the benefit of calling here, are you deep stacked in which case you can play equally well if you lose, or are you a 20BB stack that is comfortable at this level in push fold spots but uncomfortable at 10BB? In this case calling off 10BB light would be detrimental to your tournament.
In the examples you give I would say in a cash game where you have an edge, even 3-4% the call is correct as longterm EV over 1000s of hands is positive, but how often are you going to know, in the first example however if you hold A3, that your opponent has 22 and A7? so you should fold facing this action. In a tournament, stack size, table image, opponents range, fold equity and many more things must be taken into consideration as you cannot simply reload.
Hope that made sense.