poker odds/outs calc question

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pittsburgh1

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I'm generally pretty good at math, but i'm confused about this. I'm sure i'm missing something simple here but... here's my Q..
me: Ah Jh
villain: 8s 9s
Board: 8h 5h 2c
poker odds calculator says i'm 54% to win, villain is 46%... I'm not sure why i'm the fave at this point.. I know i've got 3A outs, 3J and 9 flush outs =15... theres 47 cards left... 15/47= <33%, and he's got a made pair... so why am i the fave here?... I'd really appreciate an explanation from you veterans... thx guys
 
acky100

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Im not a veteran by any means but there's two more cards to come, which is why you're a favourite.
 
tpb221

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He has very little outs to improve compared to you.
If a 9h comes he has 2 pair but you get the flush. He can make a runner runner straight with 6-7 but again if it's the 6h or 7h he'll make his straight but you'll get the flush and beat him.
 
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swingro

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The calculator is showing you your equity meaning chanches to win the hand.
(number of outs * 4) - (number of outs - 8) = Equity
if i remember correctely.
In your case. (15*4) -(15-8) =60-7 =53 of course it is not 53 exactely because you have a open ended streight draw when a 10 comes or gutshot when a queen or a seven comes witch will add more outs. So a little over 53 %.
 
jbbb

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Flush draw + two overs is a favourite over a pair. Thats a good thing to remember in tourny's and cash games a like. If you can put your opponent on a pair you can raise the flop big and put them to a hard decision with a ton of equity in the pot and not even a made hand yet.

As for your question you have 3 Jacks, 3 Aces and 9 hearts which is 15 total outs. Using the 2/4 rule you hit one of your outs (15 x 4) = ~ 60% to win. This is an estimate (and a bit off too) but it's a lot easier to do in your head at the time than complicated maths equations.

Oh yeah in OP you've just worked out the chance with one card to come too, we have two cards left to catch our outs.

acky100 said:
Im not a veteran
Click to expand...

Stop putting yourself down :p
 
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swingro

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jbbb said:
Flush draw + two overs is a favourite over a pair. Thats a good thing to remember in tourny's and cash games a like. If you can put your opponent on a pair you can raise the flop big and put them to a hard decision with a ton of equity in the pot and not even a made hand yet.

As for your question you have 3 Jacks, 3 Aces and 9 hearts which is 15 total outs. Using the 2/4 rule you hit one of your outs (15 x 4) = ~ 60% to win. This is an estimate (and a bit off too) but it's a lot easier to do in your head at the time than complicated maths equations.

Oh yeah in OP you've just worked out the chance with one card to come too, we have two cards left to catch our outs.



Stop putting yourself down :p
Click to expand...
for the situations where you have more than 8 outs you use the formula (nr.outs x 4)- (nr.outs - 8) for a more accurate result and it is not that hard. But i think there are charts with classic situations witch anyone can learn easy. There are very few players that make this in their heads especially when there are a lot of draws , pairs , hidden draws, etc on the board. Learning them is nto hard. Identifying the outs is the hard part sometimes.
 
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buster999

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pittsburgh1 said:
I'm generally pretty good at math, but i'm confused about this. I'm sure i'm missing something simple here but... here's my Q..
me: Ah Jh
villain: 8s 9s
Board: 8h 5h 2c
poker odds calculator says i'm 54% to win, villain is 46%... I'm not sure why i'm the fave at this point.. I know i've got 3A outs, 3J and 9 flush outs =15... theres 47 cards left... 15/47= <33%, and he's got a made pair... so why am i the fave here?... I'd really appreciate an explanation from you veterans... thx guys
Click to expand...

33% is only for the river. You have a 60% chance of improving your hand and 54% chance of wining. villain only has 4outs 16% to improve and 46% that it will hold up.
 
kilross

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i think jbbb has sumed it up in a nut shell for you, stick to what he is saying and u will be fine
 
jbbb

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swingro said:
for the situations where you have more than 8 outs you use the formula (nr.outs x 4)- (nr.outs - 8) for a more accurate result and it is not that hard.
Click to expand...

I respectfully disagree. TBH it's not too hard to learn anyway just know that a FD with two overcards is ~54%, it comes up a lot.
 
BrianAddictedToPOker

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everyone here has a different answer
 
Poker Orifice

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jbbb said:
I respectfully disagree. TBH it's not too hard to learn anyway just know that a FD with two overcards is ~54%, it comes up a lot.
Click to expand...
2- 4 rule is fairly accurate up until ~9outs but beyond that it overestimates by a bit... so.. what swingro is sayin' is ez peezy & is actually correct (I hate to say, lol).. 'but'.. typically it's (x - 9) (not -8)...> 4 x 15 - ( 15 - 9) = 54

Although I do disrespectually disagree with his statement that 'the tough part is knowin' ur outs' (sure we can't always assume clean outs.. but as far as calculating outs goes this is really elementary).
 
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