This is a discussion on Odds for hitting flush draw on the flop within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; So I want to know, if I call preflop with for example J2 of hearts, what percentage of the time will a minimum of 2
So I want to know, if I call preflop with for example J2 of hearts, what percentage of the time will a minimum of 2 hearts hit on the flop? This is mostly to get a better feel for how loose I should be calling preflop with hands like this.
8th January 2014, 3:34 AM
Online Poker at: Carbon/BCP
the probability of flopping a flush draw with any two suited cards is
39*C(11,2)/C(50,3) = 10.94% So the odds of flopping a flush draw with 2 suited cards are ~11% about the same chance as flopping a set with a pocket pair....hope this helps!
8th January 2014, 3:49 AM
Poker at: Pokerstars
On a side note, never play J2s unless you are presented with ridiculous pot odds and are in one of the blinds. Hands you should be looking to flop a flush draw with would be suited connecters 87s for example, or suited 1 gappers e.g 97s. But even those shouldnt be played from early position or if you arent getting much in the way of implied odds like if your opponents are short. These types of hands are essentially very weak and dont win very often at showdown but occasionally you hit a flop hard and can win a huge pot.
10th January 2014, 5:17 AM
Online Poker at: bovada
i think i read somewhere suited cards hit 23%
10th January 2014, 6:52 AM
16th January 2014, 4:42 AM
Online Poker at: Carbon
re: Poker & Odds for hitting flush draw on the flop
The chance of flopping a flush is right around 1%, so the chance of flopping a draw is slightly higher. Probably around 4% ^ is correct.
16th March 2016, 6:38 PM
about 1 in 12 or 8.21%
The probability of hitting your flush draw with two suited cards on the flop is 1/50/12 x 1/49/11 or approximately 1 chance in 18.5 tries multiplied by 100% plus 11/48 or a total percentage probability of 8.21% or about 1 in 12 attempts.
I did not know the answer myself I am a mathematics major currently in precalculus. I did the math on a TI-84 plus scientific calculator. First you must understand what is being calculated. 2 of 3 cards must be your suit on the flop. 50 cards remain in the deck on the 1st card and 12 of your suit remains in the deck. 1 less of each on the 2nd card. The 3rd card is a multiplier because you only need 2 out of 3, not 3 out of 3. So now the probability goes up not down!