F
fergy05
Rock Star
Silver Level
I seem to be losing a lot on one part of my game. I am playing low limit (0.01/0.02 NLHE), and have found myself in a position of being one away from making my hand and faced with the choice of going all in to stay in the hand. The logic I have been using is below, but it does not seem to be paying off for me, is my logic flawed, or have I just had a run of bad luck?
The flush situation - I hold suited cards (and high suited, so if I do get a flush, I am confident I will have the nuts), 2 of my suit comes on the flop. opponent makes a large bet. Given that I have 2 cards to come, and only 1 of them has to be my suit. 47 unknown cards, 9 of which make my hand, 2 cards to go. Therefore 20% chance of getting it on first card. Assuming that does not make it, then 20% chance on second card (for a 24% chance of making my flush).
The Straight situation - After the flop I have an open ended straight draw. Similar to above, I figure that means I have 8 cards out of a possible 47 Unknown cards that will make my hand. Similar to above, this will equate to a possibility of about 22% to making my hand.
Is my math and logic above correct? Am I analysing the situation correctly, or am I forgetting about some important factors? I don't seem to be making these hands anywhere near the 1/4 to 1/5 of the time that my logic would suggest (note I am often not even in the hand when I go through this, I often fold and others take the hand to the river for me to look at). My decision to go all in with this hand is more dependent on other factors (size of the bet that I need to make, what I have seen the other player go all in with before, what other outs I may have, or if this is my only choice, etc).
The flush situation - I hold suited cards (and high suited, so if I do get a flush, I am confident I will have the nuts), 2 of my suit comes on the flop. opponent makes a large bet. Given that I have 2 cards to come, and only 1 of them has to be my suit. 47 unknown cards, 9 of which make my hand, 2 cards to go. Therefore 20% chance of getting it on first card. Assuming that does not make it, then 20% chance on second card (for a 24% chance of making my flush).
The Straight situation - After the flop I have an open ended straight draw. Similar to above, I figure that means I have 8 cards out of a possible 47 Unknown cards that will make my hand. Similar to above, this will equate to a possibility of about 22% to making my hand.
Is my math and logic above correct? Am I analysing the situation correctly, or am I forgetting about some important factors? I don't seem to be making these hands anywhere near the 1/4 to 1/5 of the time that my logic would suggest (note I am often not even in the hand when I go through this, I often fold and others take the hand to the river for me to look at). My decision to go all in with this hand is more dependent on other factors (size of the bet that I need to make, what I have seen the other player go all in with before, what other outs I may have, or if this is my only choice, etc).