Originally Posted by acky100
Yeah i dont think we get 30% folds unless he is capable of barreling this obviously bad barrel card with a hand like AQo or AKo frequently
not only do i think we get some overpairs some % of the time to fold, but i think hes 3b range is going to be wide enough here for him to show up with a bunch of airballs.
this is really sketchy, because villain and OP are unknown, but lets assume villain isnt a nitty retard (described as aggro 6m reg).
he obv has his value 3b range of im guessing TT+, AKo, AQs+. now hes got to have a light 3b range too. im going to assume that he has about x2 more light 3bs in his range than value hands- total speculation but youd have to assume theres more air than value if hes a decent aggro reg.
thats a value range of 3.8% and a light 3b range of 7.8%, so 11.8% which id say is fairly reasonable/standard.
hard to know how to make this up but im gunna anyway for arguments sake;
A2-A9s, 22-66, 65s-T9s, 68-T8s
we now have 57% equity vs his range on the turn.
i dont think just because he double barrelled we can rule out a lot of air here. i also think we can expect folds from 99-TT a lot of the time, obv the air too, as villains not nearly pot committed. can prob expect to be looked up by JJ+, obv sets, as well as A5ss and 55 on the odd occassion- maybe even some weird 78ss stuff too.
conclusion, all this massively depends on villain tenancies, but i still feel comfortable that were getting folds 30% of the time here