$400 NLHE 6-max: 400nl straight on scary board in 3b pot, call or shove?

Villain is pretty good, pretty standard aggro 6m reg.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer
SB ($394)
BB ($187)
Hero ($468)
CO ($410)
BTN ($572)

Dealt to Hero 6♣ 5♣

Hero raises to $12, fold, fold, SB raises to $36, fold, Hero calls $24

FLOP ($76) 6♠ 4♥ 7♥

SB bets $40, Hero calls $40

TURN ($156) 6♠ 4♥ 7♥ 2♣

SB bets $78, Hero calls $78

RIVER ($312) 6♠ 4♥ 7♥ 2♣ 3♥

SB bets $156

Villain leaves himself $84 behind, is this a shove or just call? Anyone ever fold?

i wouldn't fold I feel like shoving is the move. He could have a set or overpair that he would have to call off and obviously 5s that we'd split. There are some flushes in his range but not enough to be thinking about folding IMO

some other info might be useful b/c i dont like calling the 3b but as played call is fine, he's not calling a jam with anything you beat

shove.
$84 behind he's going to have to call off with most of his range here, and you're beating most of it. Any set/any overpair will probably look you up at this point, pots too big.
If he was barreling AKhh and hit his river, which also completed your straight..it's just a cooler. Can't fold now.

I fold pre.
More info on villain is needed. You sure he's a good reg, any reason why he isn't full stacked? The way he's just half potting every street is also not very reggish.
As played I like shoving the river just because there's so little behind and that I've gone and judged him as fishy based on his stack size and I think his range is mostly QQ+.

It's Lock where the auto-topup isn't fully functional and sometimes delays a hand or two, my guess is this is what happened here.

And actually upon looking at PTR he's not a very good reg but he is a reg and plays pretty reggish (22/18 with 11% 3b) so my read at the time was he's probably a decent reg.

Don't like calling pre vs someone who is 3betting an UTG open what probably 6% tops? even if its 11% i still don't think i like calling with 65s, i mean yeah it balances your range and means you can hit low flops but you probably don't need to worry about balancing there unless you're constantly getting in these spots vs this guy? Maybe if you have a read that you can outplay him on a lot of flops IP then it'd be good, do you?

As played i call, when you shove you probably never rep any flushes, and you probably wouldnt turn a hand like 99 into a bluff for that much more money so he could play pretty well against your shove and only call with flushes. That said i might just be over thinking it and he might be a meh reg and call his overpair off, then again he could be bad at hand reading and put you on a flush and never call with worse too.

All the above ^

I like the call instead of a shove, mainly because villain hasnt shoved. Looks like a value bet to me. If we shove, villain knows we are rarely getting any folds and will rate our hand accordingly. Even with the great price he will get I still think he can fold over pairs etc,I dont think it makes a shove worth it if you factor in the number of times he will show up with a flush.

Jeez on second thought I think its a shove n not really close.

If we give villain TT+, akhh aqhh...a huge majority of his range is overpairs. I could even include other pps tbh..but I don't think any other hh combinations.

The play vs that range is shove obviously since were ahead. I reckon villain throws in his $84 for a shot at the $600+ pot a very decent % of the time. No reason not to take a shot @ it imo..besides being paranoid of ak/aqhh, which are such a smalll part of the range that I wouldn't be.

youre probably all going to hate it, but i shove turn here vs this guy errrrrrrryday assuming a 3b range of TT+ AK/AQ. you only need folds like 35% of the time to b/e which imo youre getting, and his sizing doesnt really set him up for a river shove which makes me think that even a pair of 6s here is good even without the OESD.

that being said i havent played 2/4 in 1.5 years so it could be a lot different now

Could be good but i think we need folds like 50% to b/e ? I think shoving the turn is pretty good though if he is capable of barrelling AQ,AK that arent suited enough.. only thing is the turn card isn't a good card to barrel with these hands so if he's really waited to NFD's and big PP's here then we probably arent getting 50% folds.

even if villains range is TT-AA and AKhh AQhh only, stove is telling me were 31.8%
with ESS of $394, and pot at $234 my FE calc is telling me we only need folds 29% of the time for breakeven

and in my experience, you get lots of double barrels from AK AQ here, but then again i played very sticky OTF in 3b pots IP at 400NL. not sure what OP is like...

I don't use them calculators but we have to shove another $220ish on the turn.. into a pot of 220ish? so basically a pot sized bet all in has to work fiddy %

edit: yeh pots like 232 or something and he has like 238 left or something close to that..

no it doesnt because we have 30% equity when called.
a pot sized shove would have to work 50% to b/e if we had zero equity when called, unless im being retarded?

Oh duh yeh, 50% folds if we are pure bluffing my bad

lolol.

so with that newfound knowledge youre all for turn shipping i assume?

Yeh i like it better than trying to call down, would like to know villains real 3bet range vs our UTG and that he can definitely have NFD's that barrel the turn here but yeah we have so much equity i think its pretty good

waittttt a minute.

Even if he has say every combo of Axhh (apart from A6hh for simplicity even though he could have that.) We still need him to fold 30% of the time, this is probably not gonna be so even if he has every Axhh here, if he only has half of them or big ones like AQ AK then its a disaster as we're always running into overpairs...

Yeah i dont think we get 30% folds unless he is capable of barreling this obviously bad barrel card with a hand like AQo or AKo frequently

Assuming he's a decent reg, as jchoop says his bet sizing makes an overpair look unlikely. Betting half the pot looks like hes trying to draw cheaply to the flush with AK-Qs (although I dont like the 3 bet here with AQ) , which would make a shove turn.

If he's a decent reg he doesn't have obvious bet sizing tells in 3bet pots, i don't think you can just assume hes drawing cause he half pots the turn, flop bet is super standard size for 3bet pot too.

Why is he not betting more to get protect against a flush draw if he has an overpair then?

Not saying your wrong, you know more than me so I'd just like to understand why.

PF fold. Definitely folding to the re-raise PF UTG.

-

Protection is not a reason for betting. Flush draws and speculative hands are going to be heavily discounted in 3-bet pots as well, despite OP's holding here.

because then his range would be face up, And he doesn't wanna protect against flush draws he wants to give them bad odds to chase them, betting half pot on the turn denies someone drawing to a flush the correct odds, so he forces them to make a mistake if they call with a flush draw, obviously betting more than hp is better if they will call with a FD but just trying to say that we shouldnt just think of he bets hp he's drawing, generally this is true especially at lower stakes but a 400nl reg should be good enough to not have bet sizing tells, if he isn't he won't be a 400nl reg for long.

This.

And yeah preflop's probably a fold but call can't be that awful and I was tilting so **** it

Fold pre-flop.

Trying to think of a polite way to say and explain this because I honestly don't want to sound rude... If you're a reg at 400nl you should know that you need to ship that river. It's really not even close honestly especially considering you're in a 3-bet pot and not expected to show up with a 5 very often. Against some really good regs that can fold committed overpairs in this spot, I would consider just calling. But never folding.

not only do i think we get some overpairs some % of the time to fold, but i think hes 3b range is going to be wide enough here for him to show up with a bunch of airballs.

this is really sketchy, because villain and OP are unknown, but lets assume villain isnt a nitty retard (described as aggro 6m reg).

he obv has his value 3b range of im guessing TT+, AKo, AQs+. now hes got to have a light 3b range too. im going to assume that he has about x2 more light 3bs in his range than value hands- total speculation but youd have to assume theres more air than value if hes a decent aggro reg.

thats a value range of 3.8% and a light 3b range of 7.8%, so 11.8% which id say is fairly reasonable/standard.

hard to know how to make this up but im gunna anyway for arguments sake;
A2-A9s, 22-66, 65s-T9s, 68-T8s

we now have 57% equity vs his range on the turn.


i dont think just because he double barrelled we can rule out a lot of air here. i also think we can expect folds from 99-TT a lot of the time, obv the air too, as villains not nearly pot committed. can prob expect to be looked up by JJ+, obv sets, as well as A5ss and 55 on the odd occassion- maybe even some weird 78ss stuff too.

conclusion, all this massively depends on villain tenancies, but i still feel comfortable that were getting folds 30% of the time here

again, speculation, but i think this is a really weird line for NFDs from a reg. id expect a decent flop Cbet/shove turn line or a check raise/shove at some point with NFD+over type hands


tbh i dont think the turn is a bad barrel card either as if he has air hes going to want to rep overpairs and thats exactly how one'd play. its getting weird leveling, but hed know that we know that its a bad barreling card, so its a good barreling card because hed know we know that he can only really have a premium to barrel it.

if he has any kind of bluff 3b range (which obv he has too), hes not just going to be half potting flops then giving up w/ his air. its too transparent

I doubt he's 3betting that much vs an UTG and even if he is i think he prolly would bet bet with a FD considering most of them have gutter outs and maybe chances to make trips or something, and he cant rely on us betting when he checks here maybe, i dunno, i just don't think its such an easy shove turn anymore considering most of his range is big pairs combo wise and we need him to fold 30% of his range.

no more to add til OP tells us tenancies lol

Okay thanks, that makes a lot sense.

To people saying fold pre, how much money do you think I'm losing by calling compared to folding pre?

Suited connectors play terribly in 3-bet pots vs. strong ranges. You raised UTG and he 3-bet OOP, you have very little FE postflop.