$100 NLHE 6-max: Straight facing a jam deepstacked

SB: 267.5 BB
BB: 38.25 BB
UTG: 360.25 BB
CO: 61 BB
Hero (BTN): 200.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5c 4c
UTG raises to 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 10 BB, fold

Flop : (27.5 BB, 2 players) As 9s 2s
UTG checks, Hero bets 10.75 BB, UTG calls 10.75 BB

Turn : (49 BB, 2 players) 3h
UTG checks, Hero bets 35 BB, UTG calls 35 BB

River : (119 BB, 2 players) 6c
UTG checks, Hero bets 62.5 BB, UTG raises to 250 BB, Hero calls 80.25 BB and is all-in

Not a very known player. His stats seems reggy. not happy with the river call at all but not happy folding either without better reads

Bet to 12bb preflop seems too much here, beside that every single move you made looks fine, sure you wanna see the end of this hand since there’s no another spade on turn and river. I really believe this one is yours, villain is doomed here with his Ace

You clearly only beat a bluff, so I guess, it boils down to, how many hands you play like this, and how high in your distribution, this one is. You have no relevant blockers, so it could be argued, that AxKs or AxQs are better bluff catchers, if you still bet those hands on the river. Your MDF is something like 55-60%. I would not hate checking back the river and not put myself in this spot.

Nasty spot especially without having any reads on villain.
I believe they should be check shoving all their sets and two pairs on the turn if they think they are ahead.
As played on the river there aren't a lot of hands on villains range that we can bluffcatch besides KsX, QsX.
Also your bet sizing on the river looks more of value rather than a block bet, so they should be discouraged even more to bluff raise.
Considering all that, unless they are a maniac, I believe they aren't ever bluffing more than 10% of the time.
We just have to fold vs most regs, that should be playing straight forward on spots like this one.

You've been trapped...

Alucard said:

SB: 267.5 BB
BB: 38.25 BB
UTG: 360.25 BB
CO: 61 BB
Hero (BTN): 200.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5c 4c
UTG raises to 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 10 BB, fold

Flop : (27.5 BB, 2 players) As 9s 2s
UTG checks, Hero bets 10.75 BB, UTG calls 10.75 BB

Turn : (49 BB, 2 players) 3h
UTG checks, Hero bets 35 BB, UTG calls 35 BB

River : (119 BB, 2 players) 6c
UTG checks, Hero bets 62.5 BB, UTG raises to 250 BB, Hero calls 80.25 BB and is all-in

Not a very known player. His stats seems reggy. not happy with the river call at all but not happy folding either without better reads

Click to expand...

I would have to say that the villian flopped a flush and trapped you. Why check-raise bluff on the river? He should never expect you to fold. He had, KQs or KJs, right?

The Leveling Wars, Episode I: BTN Squeezes Light versus EP

Alucard said:

SB: 267.5 BB
BB: 38.25 BB
UTG: 360.25 BB
CO: 61 BB
Hero (BTN): 200.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5c 4c
UTG raises to 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 10 BB, fold

Flop : (27.5 BB, 2 players) As 9s 2s
UTG checks, Hero bets 10.75 BB, UTG calls 10.75 BB

Turn : (49 BB, 2 players) 3h
UTG checks, Hero bets 35 BB, UTG calls 35 BB

River : (119 BB, 2 players) 6c
UTG checks, Hero bets 62.5 BB, UTG raises to 250 BB, Hero calls 80.25 BB and is all-in

Not a very known player. His stats seems reggy. not happy with the river call at all but not happy folding either without better reads

Click to expand...

Hello there Alucard, thank you for posting a fantastic hand for analysis.

Preflop:

Squeezing preflop with 5c4c and other similar combos versus EP is on the loose side of your range, no problem if you know how to navigate safely postflop, in position with this part of your Squeeze range.
If UTG is on the nitty side, opening just 10% hands from UTG you will have 32% equity preflop for such a Squeeze.
If UTG is opening only 15%, you will have 34% equity preflop for your Squeeze.
Finally, if UTG is very loose and opening 20% or more you will have 35% equity preflop for your Squeeze:
Summarizing: both players being deep stacked is very dangerous to Squeeze weak combos versus UTG, because when you hit a flush or a straight you will be dominated by better flushes and straights and you are going to lose a ton of value.
This is a reverse implied odds scenario, where no matter what you hit, Villain can always hit a better hand than you and you will be almost forced to put +200 blinds onto the table.

Flop:

As I said before, you have a gutter and nothing more! Your equity is very poor in a scenario like this and many times when you make your straight on the Turn you will be already dominated by flushes.
If we are going to c-bet this flop okay, but we should go for at maximum 1/3 pot. Although I believe that check-folding is better. (Our hand has equity but on the other side it also has reverse implied odds given the monotone flop).
Villain UTG is not going to fold anything right now, but even his bluffs are strong when called in the flop: Villain doesn't have AsKs, but Villain still have all the over-combos of spades, since you have none.
Villain UTG can have Ks, Qs, and Js, those are not going to fold to a 1/3 c-bet flop.
UTG can have AA, 99 and 22 and those are not going to fold. When you miss your gutshot on the Turn what is your plan? Keep firing seeking fold equity? Hummm..
You bet 1/3 and Villain calls with all of its range?

Turn:

Do you have any ideia what possibily UTG could've called you with in the flop?
It seems that when UTG calls you on the flop it cappes its range for TPTK, Sets, Two Pair, flushes and TP+FD). Nonetheless, some of these could check-raise for protection given the monotone texture, however also dangerous with no combo of spades.
IT might have called you with TPTK and Two Pair (AK, AQ, A9, A2) and now in the turn these hands would have a lot of trouble to continue paying 2/3 pot, but this is a very cheap bet in the turn.
Another hands that are going to have problems calling 2/3 pot are AA, KK, QQ, 99 and 22, because everyone is seeing how connected the board is. Of course that Villain would call more with the pocket pairs that contain a spade on its combos.
Only a very weak regular at 100 NLHE would be calling turn again without anything that is not a flush or a straight, or some spade combo + XY)
UTG knows that you know that UTG's range is very strong when it calls the flop: it represents AA, KK, the spades and the flush itself: flushes would have no reason to be raising this flop or raising turn.
When UTG calls turn it show even more strength.

River

If I were in UTG's shoes, and let's suppose that I don't have a flush, I don't have a straight, but I have very strong value hands on my range: in a river like this I can get with flushes, straights (a fewer times), my sets AA, 99, 22, my two pair A9, A2, A3, KK I would have folded or floated turn, QQ I would have called flop to check-fold turn, AK I could have called with the combos with the Ks, because I would be drawing to the flush nuts.
IF I were on UTG's shoes I would go into a river like this godlike strong: my only bluffs on a river like this are the Flush Draws of Spades (with Ks, Qs, Js at maximum).
So, when it comes another barrel from the player in position and I have called flop and turn with my value/floating range, I would fold part of this range, called the value range and bluff in a low frequency depening on the Villain (I would never do it against you because I know you would insta-call flushes, straights, sets, and sometimes etc).
Because we are deep stacked, and I have called flop and turn and I have the King of Spades, I can REPRESENT the FLUSHES a lot! I have a ton of flushes on this river and if I hold the King of Spades I would certainly check-raise jam this river, where I have all the nuts, almost always, and put a godamn strong pressure into BTN/Hero's range. Because KK with a Ks lost its showdown value on a river like this and then UTG can turn a value hand into a bluff, given that both are deep stacked.
Looking to the pot odds, we need to right 1 out of 3 times, however we don't believe that BTN has a lot of bluffs too, I actually would never believe that BTN would get into a river like this with more than 28% of bluffs in its, never, it simply doesn't happen, so I do not have good odds for calling with my entire value range, except flushes:
I can fold here AA, 99, 22 very easy, because when BTN triple barrels a drawie board like this it is representing only the Flushes and only the Straights and BTN knows that I know that BTN knows.
It is a very bold move of UTG to shove all-in here, and the only hands that go all in here are the nutted flushes (A Regular will present more King of Spades, unknowns maybe Qs.) and the missed nutted flush draws of Spades.
However, when UTG goes all in on this river, representing the nutted flushes, it puts a lot a pressure into BTN's range that now:

A) Cannot simply call with any flush without at least an overcard
B) Cannot simply call with a straight because UTG's line is screaming the nut flush
C) Cannot simply call with anything under a straight

However, if you have a very good reading on Villain okay, but it is very balanced to go all-in on this river because BTN would be forced to fold more than 90% of times on scenarios like this, and some players are going to be overfolding straights in a scenario like that:
Remember that if UTG is a balanced player, you will never know when it has a bluff or the nuts on a river like this and if you call with dominated hands, you are simply "guessing" too much.
How were the pot odds at the moment UTG went all-in? You need to be right 1 out of 5 times to make this call breakeven, however, I don't believe that UTG is bluffing here 1 out of 5 times (does UTG really have more than 20% of bluffs on this River?)
UTG would never check-raise a river like this with Two Pair, Sets or even straights, because those are value hands that could be calling in a low X frequency to avoid being overbluffed. IF UTG is raising its value hands on a river like this, in a very deep stacked pot, put a note on it, because this is the regular WHALE.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

xrhstos said:

Nasty spot especially without having any reads on villain.
I believe they should be check shoving all their sets and two pairs on the turn if they think they are ahead.
As played on the river there aren't a lot of hands on villains range that we can bluffcatch besides KsX, QsX.
Also your bet sizing on the river looks more of value rather than a block bet, so they should be discouraged even more to bluff raise.
Considering all that, unless they are a maniac, I believe they aren't ever bluffing more than 10% of the time.
We just have to fold vs most regs, that should be playing straight forward on spots like this one.

Click to expand...

Sorry xrhstos for my candor here, nothing personal but this is not 2 NLHE: Regulars are not raising a connected turn/river like this with hands that have showdown value such as Sets and Two Pair types: it doesn't make any sense to turn those precious value hands into bluffs on a drawie turn/river like this.
The bluffs that UTG can have right now are the missed draws of Spades with some overcard, and the Ks and in a low frequency Qs could be jamming this river to protect its range, because BTN would fold simply more than 90% of times here, turning this bluff automatically profitable, even for the times that BTN has a flush or a straight and calls, because BTN would only call 10% of times or less.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Aballinamion said:

Sorry xrhstos for my candor here, nothing personal but this is not 2 NLHE: Regulars are not raising a connected turn/river like this with hands that have showdown value such as Sets and Two Pair types: it doesn't make any sense to turn those precious value hands into bluffs on a drawie turn/river like this.
The bluffs that UTG can have right now are the missed draws of Spades with some overcard, and the Ks and in a low frequency Qs could be jamming this river to protect its range, because BTN would fold simply more than 90% of times here, turning this bluff automatically profitable, even for the times that BTN has a flush or a straight and calls, because BTN would only call 10% of times or less.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Click to expand...

I agree that players are playing better than 2nl but that doesn't necessarily mean that they view sets and A9s as bluffs on the turn, they could view those hands as value hands but vulnerable to some rivers and they could be raising turn for value and protection.
As played UTG should have more flushes than Hero, since they flatted the squeeze and played very passively postflop until the river.
But I think this spot should be underbluffed even in 200nl, I really don't see them bluffing with Ks, Qs because they are representing very few combos of hands.

Preflop is such a big raise. Once you get called, you are going into a much more bigger pot than we would like to be in with 5 high, and we know our opponent is extremely strong calling there.

Flop, we should be checking back 100% of the time. We are drawing to an offsuit 3, if that is even good at this point.

Once you hit your gin card on the turn and the river isn't another flush card, we have to call all in. We've invested so much and have a decent holding.

This is the reason why it's bad to play speculative hands like this sometimes, especially when we're not sure what to do. You're left in awkward spots not knowing where we are at the end.

I don't like the 3 bet pre either but as played post flop is fine IMO. After you bet river and get jammed on you only have 80 BB left and there's over 320 BB in the pot. As you said you don't have good enough reads to fold. Given pre flop action V should really only have KQss for value. If he showed up with anything else then he probably also has enough bluffs to justify the call.

I understand that the opening size of UTG seemed a bit weak to you. You've probably seen him make slightly bigger openings when he's OOP. It gives the impression that you also considered the CO call weak. I think I would make the same decision as you, being on the BTN. Basically your range could interfere more with CO, so you are in a continue or fold situation, but if you are still active in this hand you must expel villain 2 and the V1 UTG cannot block the low structure of your range, so I think you chose an appropriate size in preflop.
On the flop I would like a slightly larger C bet, because now we are building efficient fold equity. So as you choose a larger size, the villain will not want to get too involved, considering your SPR.
On the turn you continued shooting and I think you chose a perfect size. Now you must put all the value of your hand and block any river that damages you. So handing over bad odds to complete rank V is a must here.
On the river you changed the bet ratio. Now your bet is of decreasing proportion, with respect to the equivalence of the turn. (71% on the turn / 52% on the river) I think this is a point that the villain can use to his advantage. You should apply this final sequence when you have the best possible hand on the river. In this way you allow the villain to be confused and induce him to turn his valuable hands into a bluff.
I agree to call on this river, without further information.
Greetings.

Alucard said:

SB: 267.5 BB
BB: 38.25 BB
UTG: 360.25 BB
CO: 61 BB
Hero (BTN): 200.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5c 4c
UTG raises to 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 10 BB, fold

Flop : (27.5 BB, 2 players) As 9s 2s
UTG checks, Hero bets 10.75 BB, UTG calls 10.75 BB

Turn : (49 BB, 2 players) 3h
UTG checks, Hero bets 35 BB, UTG calls 35 BB

River : (119 BB, 2 players) 6c
UTG checks, Hero bets 62.5 BB, UTG raises to 250 BB, Hero calls 80.25 BB and is all-in

Not a very known player. His stats seems reggy. not happy with the river call at all but not happy folding either without better reads

Click to expand...

I think you played the hand fine on all streets, as you said only decision is the river

Main thing is what blocker hands he would do this with, Does AxKs play this way? I can't really think of many other hands that would call down and go for a bluff on the river.

Combo wise it's pretty even between nut flushes and the nut blocker so if it's pot odds the call seems fine.

I don't know much about poker strategy, but I heard about the saying "don't draw to a straight when there is a flush on the board"