Originally Posted by seventhsense
Why do you assume this is his entire range?
Anyway, sorry, I thought you wanted to GII. Sadly 5bet/folding is just as bad. You're suggesting turning AK into a bluff when it can play nicely IP against the villains range if we flat. If you are indeed saying he has little to no bluffs then you're asking a 10nl player to fold QQ/AK pre after 4 betting. Good luck. If they were scared of getting that in, they probably flat the 3 bet.
Why is there 'no initiative' post-flop? Yes we aren't the aggressor. I would far rather have position and a more obscure range.
Yeah, it's cool.
It's not his entire range, but the general population is not 4-betting wide for value here and 4-bet bluffing anywhere near frequently enough. So he isn't 4-betting stuff like JJ/1010 here almost ever 200bb deep OOP vs our squeeze. AKo doesn't play that nicely since it doesn't make as many nutted hands as AKs, and doesn't flop/turn as much equity either to continue floating/bluff later streets.
Also, we are going to get bluffed off the same hand a lot when we continue postflop. Say this board didn't give us a backdoor nut flush draw. He's going to c-bet AK something like 40-60% of the time, and we fold the same hand. And we have really bad reverse implied odds
when we flop/turn an A or a K.
We have no "initiative" because we did not have the last preflop betting action. Because the 4-bettor has "initiative," he can bluff c-bet with AK and make us fold the same hand. Or the rare suited Axs/AQ bluffs he may have. You can't really float/"outplay" someone holding AK with no backdoor flush draw or flush draw in a 4-bet pot with an SPR of 3.5 having no initiative.
Hm, well I haven't played 10NL for some time. But I'm sure regs find the fold button to a 5-bet deep with AK (for sure) and most/all of QQ at 100NL+ this deep. They are only continuing with KK/AA unless they are capable of a sick 6-bet bluff shove, and like I said the general population is way underbluffing in this spot to make flatting AKo IP that great.
I'm pretty sure 5-betting here is immediately +EV when you do the math. He might flat the remaining 3 combos of KK sometimes (gives us a chance to suck out postflop), he folds almost all AK/QQ (8-10 combos), only jams AA (3 combos), and folds out all his bluffs (0-3 combos). He doesn't have to fold that often for it to be +EV, since the 5-bet doesn't need to be that large.
Fwiw your range is not obscure when you flat AK here. Your calling range should be pretty well-defined (1010-QQ, most KK, AK, AA maybe if you're known to be tricky). And positional advantage is significantly reduced when the SPR is 3.5. The pot is way too bloated for us to make a ton of moves like bluffing-raising and floating postflop.