What are the odds?

I know what I am about to delve into is going to be considered imposable, however I swear that it is true.

First of all, what are the odds of getting KK? Then, what are the odds of someone else at the table having an A(?)? Then, the odds of another A hitting on the flop? And the odds of that person having just enough chips to cover your stack to knock you out?

This is where the imposable part comes in. I play regularly on several poker rooms. The above situation has happened to me 15 times in a row spead out over 4 poker rooms. What are the odds of this happening? In the time that this has happened I have not lost to any other combination of cards - no boats, flushes, straights, sets(unless it was a set of A's), two pair - NOTHING! I would like to believe that KK would hold up at some point. Any ideas or input other than what a friend has suggested - JUST FOLD EM!!!

Thanks for whatever you can offer.

dont play poker ever again?? its poker the only winning hand is royal flush, an you'll rarely get your moneys worth with that one

Mike82K5 said:

I know what I am about to delve into is going to be considered imposable, however I swear that it is true.

First of all, what are the odds of getting KK? Then, what are the odds of someone else at the table having an A(?)? Then, the odds of another A hitting on the flop? And the odds of that person having just enough chips to cover your stack to knock you out?

This is where the imposable part comes in. I play regularly on several poker rooms. The above situation has happened to me 15 times in a row spead out over 4 poker rooms. What are the odds of this happening? In the time that this has happened I have not lost to any other combination of cards - no boats, flushes, straights, sets(unless it was a set of A's), two pair - NOTHING! I would like to believe that KK would hold up at some point. Any ideas or input other than what a friend has suggested - JUST FOLD EM!!!

Thanks for whatever you can offer.

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HAHA lol impossible yet it happened.

No offense but this thread is retarded. Who cares what the odds are, the fact is it happened - deal with it and move on or stop playing.

By the way kk is 67% favorite against AX suited. Yes its a favourite but its not like its set in stone that you have to win.

If you fold KK you might as well just not play poker!!!!!

kadafi said:

HAHA lol impossible yet it happened.

No offense but this thread is retarded. Who cares what the odds are, the fact is it happened - deal with it and move on or stop playing.

By the way kk is 67% favorite against AX suited. Yes its a favourite but its not like its set in stone that you have to win.

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Kadafi, I see that you are an "Expert Member", congratulations! Oh yeah, thanks for the "Expert" opinion of saying that my thread is retarded. I would like to apologize for bieng a relatively new player and wasting your "expert" time with my retardedness. I'm sure that I will be sprinting back to this site to ask my next "retarded" question. Thanks for the insperation! :icon_thum :banghead: :adore: :icon_salu

IM OUT!

Guess it proves once & for all that K's ARE Ace magnets.... Better luck in your next game!

don't let 1 comment ruin the site for u!

Odds are that it's not the cards-it's you. If this happens so much maybe you aren't betting enough to get a weak ace to fold. I'd go back and look at the hand history and maybe post some of them here(hint hint) and maybe we can have more info and seal this hole in your game.

Mike82K5 said:

Kadafi, I see that you are an "Expert Member", congratulations! Oh yeah, thanks for the "Expert" opinion of saying that my thread is retarded. I would like to apologize for bieng a relatively new player and wasting your "expert" time with my retardedness. I'm sure that I will be sprinting back to this site to ask my next "retarded" question. Thanks for the insperation! :icon_thum :banghead: :adore: :icon_salu

IM OUT!

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Expert member doesn't mean he's an expert. LOL

If I wanted to figure out the odds of you having KK and someone else having an A in their hand, and then an A hitting the board, I could, but I don't feel like doing it, cause it doesn't really matter. You need to realize a couple of things. Lets say that you are at a 9 seat table, when the cards are dealt (18) that equals 34% of all the cards in the deck, that's just over a third of the deck. KK vs Ax AIPF, KK will win about 70% of the time.

..............equity..... win....... tie.... pots won... pots tied
Hand 0: 71.163% 70.95% 00.21% 1005900408 3041226.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 28.837% 28.62% 00.21% 405804852 3041226.00 { A2o+ }

Now Lets say you are in a tourney, in push fold mode, UTG. You shove now 8 other people are to act after you. You have the second best starting hand!!! You are a huge favorite to win if you are called. However, what is going to call your shove? Most of the time someone Holding an A. Depending on their stack size it could be almost any A. Like I said before, you win this 70% of the time, but you also lose 30% of the time. You must also realize the odds don't change, it doesn't matter if AJ, beat your KK last time, or A7 beat your KK the time before that. Every time you shove or call a shove with KK, you have the sames odds vs Ax.

Now if someon called with QQ, your odds are ever better, they only have two outs now, KK Vs QQ will win 80% of the time.

..............equity..... win...... tie... pots won.. pots tied
Hand 0: 81.935% 81.70% 00.23% 50363748 143280.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 18.065% 17.83% 00.23% 10992636 143280.00 { QQ }


So losing 17 70/30's in a row does suck, but it does happen. Just realize it's part of the game.

lektrikguy said:

Odds are that it's not the cards-it's you. If this happens so much maybe you aren't betting enough to get a weak ace to fold. I'd go back and look at the hand history and maybe post some of them here(hint hint) and maybe we can have more info and seal this hole in your game.

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This was my first thought.

People will play any A if you let them (and sometimes they will no matter what you do).

TriggaLos said:

Expert member doesn't mean he's an expert. LOL

If I wanted to figure out the odds of you having KK and someone else having an A in their hand, and then an A hitting the board, I could, but I don't feel like doing it, cause it doesn't really matter. You need to realize a couple of things. Lets say that you are at a 9 seat table, when the cards are dealt (18) that equals 34% of all the cards in the deck, that's just over a third of the deck. KK vs Ax AIPF, KK will win about 70% of the time.

..............equity..... win....... tie.... pots won... pots tied
Hand 0: 71.163% 70.95% 00.21% 1005900408 3041226.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 28.837% 28.62% 00.21% 405804852 3041226.00 { A2o+ }

Now Lets say you are in a tourney, in push fold mode,.....

So losing 17 70/30's in a row does suck, but it does happen. Just realize it's part of the game.

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TriggaLos, Thanks for in info. About the above high lights. The A hit the flop everytime, except the time the bg hit trips. Thanks for the KK win %. I went all-in on all of them no matter position, from first hand to deep in, being a bet or calling. I read a book on odds and statistics years ago and I know an "actual coin toss" has better/even odds(thats what had me askng this question), but if we were betting on the toss of a nickle and I called tails each time and lost 15 times in a row I would be checking to see if it was a double headed coin. lol

Lektrikguy, "Odds are that it's not the cards-it's you. If this happens so much maybe you aren't betting enough to get a weak ace to fold." I understand this. However, as you see what I wrote above, I went all-in every time.

Damn Yakee, "don't let 1 comment ruin the site for u!" Believe me, one (fill in the black) persons opinion doesn't ruin ANTHING for me. I don't come on this sight very often, but I do like what this sight has to offer. :icon_thum

Mike82K5 said:

Lektrikguy, "Odds are that it's not the cards-it's you. If this happens so much maybe you aren't betting enough to get a weak ace to fold." I understand this. However, as you see what I wrote above, I went all-in every time.

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It matters WHEN you got it all in as well. If you go all in with an ace on the board then obviously goin all in is not the right call if you think he might have one. Remember that if you put in a small bet and get raised the go all in you are giving better pot odds for him to call because he has money invested in the hand and it won't be much more to call. That's how you trap to get paid better but you run the risk of gettin beat. It's like Doyle says about pocket aces-you'll win a small pot or lose a big one. Basically it's a crap shoot sometimes. It's a monster hand but not invincible.

Mike82K5 said:

TriggaLos, Thanks for in info. About the above high lights. The A hit the flop everytime, except the time the bg hit trips. Thanks for the KK win %. I went all-in on all of them no matter position, from first hand to deep in, being a bet or calling. I read a book on odds and statistics years ago and I know an "actual coin toss" has better/even odds(thats what had me askng this question), but if we were betting on the toss of a nickle and I called tails each time and lost 15 times in a row I would be checking to see if it was a double headed coin. lol

Lektrikguy, "Odds are that it's not the cards-it's you. If this happens so much maybe you aren't betting enough to get a weak ace to fold." I understand this. However, as you see what I wrote above, I went all-in every time.

Damn Yakee, "don't let 1 comment ruin the site for u!" Believe me, one (fill in the black) persons opinion doesn't ruin ANTHING for me. I don't come on this sight very often, but I do like what this sight has to offer. :icon_thum

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Handsome??

15 times in a row? I guess the poker gods just hate you. Think twice about ringing their doorbell and running next time. They know it was you.












They know.

no way u got kings 15 times in a row and no way u lost each time

ihtennis said:

no way u got kings 15 times in a row and no way u lost each time

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Honest thruth! I don't know what else to say.

Mortis, "Think twice about ringing their doorbell and running next time." I don't do childish things like that! I did the burning brown paper bag full of "poo"! :rofl:

ihtennis said:

no way u got kings 15 times in a row and no way u lost each time

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Someone needs to learn how to read. He didn't get KK 15 times in a row. His KK got busted 15 times in a row. There is a difference.

TriggaLos said:

Someone needs to learn how to read. He didn't get KK 15 times in a row. His KK got busted 15 times in a row. There is a difference.

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Still, the probability of a 71/29 (roughly) favorite to lose 15 time consecutively is:

0.000000008


Seriously...I would like to see the proof that KK lost heads up to Ax (here, x is NOT another ace..right?) fifteen times in a row....

TriggaLos said:

Someone needs to learn how to read. He didn't get KK 15 times in a row. His KK got busted 15 times in a row. There is a difference.

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They dont seem to read the* THREAD* they read the last post only and comment

Bugs me too

docStats said:

Still, the probability of a 71/29 (roughly) favorite to lose 15 time consecutively is:

0.000000008


Seriously...I would like to see the proof that KK lost heads up to Ax (here, x is NOT another ace..right?) fifteen times in a row....

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It doesn't matter what the odds are, it doesn't matter if your KK was beat the last 100 times. Every time you go AIPF with KK vs Ax the odds will always be 70/30. Also, if you shove with KK what is going to call you? Most likely someone with an A. So yeah, as it's unlikely to happen, it's still possible.

Mike82K5 said:

Honest thruth! I don't know what else to say.

Mortis, "Think twice about ringing their doorbell and running next time." I don't do childish things like that! I did the burning brown paper bag full of "poo"! :rofl:

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That's even worse! That smell doesn't come off your shoe for days!

TriggaLos said:

It doesn't matter what the odds are, it doesn't matter if your KK was beat the last 100 times. Every time you go AIPF with KK vs Ax the odds will always be 70/30. Also, if you shove with KK what is going to call you? Most likely someone with an A. So yeah, as it's unlikely to happen, it's still possible.

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Do you know how the Ultimate Bet scandal got cracked? Some player was winning at a rate which, although possible, was so out of the realm of likelihood that everyone (correctly) suspected cheating.

Yes, it is *possible* that KK loses to Ax 15 times in a row, but the likelihood of this happening is SMALL....

It doesn't matter if the Ace (unpaired) is a natural candidate to call, but KK should hold up at least once in a run of 15 heads-up AIPF confrontations.


OP, it was heads-up each time?

CARDS DONT HAVE MEMORIES!!!

Thus how many times you lose with kk against ax becomes irrelevant.

You always have the same chance of winning.

docStats said:

Do you know how the Ultimate Bet scandal got cracked? Some player was winning at a rate which, although possible, was so out of the realm of likelihood that everyone (correctly) suspected cheating.

Yes, it is *possible* that KK loses to Ax 15 times in a row, but the likelihood of this happening is SMALL....

It doesn't matter if the Ace (unpaired) is a natural candidate to call, but KK should hold up at least once in a run of 15 heads-up AIPF confrontations.


OP, it was heads-up each time?

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The UB scandal is a total different story, it doesn't even compare to this thread. That's like comparing Apples to Oranges.

You have obv never had a down swing. KK losing 15 times in a row, again, is rare, but it doesn't surprise me.

TriggaLos said:

The UB scandal is a total different story, it doesn't even compare to this thread. That's like comparing Apples to Oranges.

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True - this has nothing to do with cheating...my point is that it has to do with using probability/odds to identify astronomically improbable events.

You have obv never had a down swing.

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And you obv have no working knowledge of probability.

My guess is that the OP may not have his HH exactly straight: #. of opp., Ax ...what where x's...fifteen times?