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eamesy4980
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Right, this isnt just a question how to work out odds. The thing thats really confusing is when you work out your outs then say thats your chance of winning. for example a board of 2 spades 4 spades 8 clubs you holding ace spades and 10 spades. you now have 6 outs for over cards and 9 outs for the flush. so just assuming someone goes all in with 4 4 so has trip 4s. You now have just 9 outs to hit. The way its worked out says you have 8 outs now cos 8 spades would make a full. so youve got 32% right? but what is confusing is do you really have 32%? taking into account that he has 7 outs to hit full and you draw dead on turn. thats 14% doing that. then he has another 10 outs 20% to beat your flush on river. so even if you hit your 32% flush on turn he has 20% to beat you on river. as also he has 14% to make you draw dead on turn. so this where its confusing. you cnat possibly be 32% to win this hand? yes 32% to hit a flush BUT NOT TO WIN?? but the assumption is in most odds calcs and books etc that you have 32% chance of winning this but surely its more like 25 baring in mind he can make u draw dead or if you hit turn hes got 20% to beat you? am i barking up wrong tree?? and if i aint explained to well then please ask any questions